That is the million dollar question, and it will affect how the rest of the Top five will shake out.  You can bet that Bill Parcells and the rest of the Dolphins’ organization will be quiet until draft day is upon us. 

Parcells has been in this position before.  He had the number one pick with the Patriots and the Jets. 

With the Patriots, he selected QB Drew Bledsoe out of Washington State in the 1993 Draft.  Bledsoe proved to be a worthy choice who led the Patriots to the Super Bowl in 1997.  He threw for 44,611 yards, 251 touchdowns and 206 interceptions.  Bledsoe is not a Hall of Fame QB, but he had a productive career in the league.  

With the Jets, Parcells traded the No. 1 pick and selected LB James Farrior out of Virginia in the 1997 Draft.  He spent five seasons with the Jets until he signed with the Steelers as a free agent.  He just finished his sixth season with the Steelers.  In 168 career games, Farrior has 1,017 tackles, 21 sacks, 16 forced fumbles and 10 interceptions.  He has had a very good career in the NFL.

The point that I am trying to make here is that no matter whether the Dolphins retain the top pick or trade it, Parcells will find an impact player in the first round.  Even though Parcells is not that general manager or the head coach of this team, he is still the one calling the shots.  Don’t worry Dolphins fans, you are in good hands.  But the question that I posed at the top has left me scratching my head, and I decided to go in search of an answer.  I am going inside Big Tuna’s mind.

If the Dolphins stay put, there are five players that they will consider.  RB Darren McFadden (Arkansas), DT Glenn Dorsey (LSU), OT Jake Long (Michigan), QB Matt Ryan (Boston College) and DE Chris Long (Virginia) are all possibilities to go No. 1.

Darren McFadden is a very talented back.  I put him in this conversation because Ronnie Brown is coming off an ACL injury.  It usually takes a player a full season to feel like his old self again and therefore he might not be the same player in 2008.  The Dolphins will be looking for someone to complement Brown.  However, it is an unlikely scenario because the Dolphins wouldn’t want to tie up too much of their money into one position.  Brown was the second overall pick a couple years back.  Plus Parcells has never been a big proponent of drafting a RB in the first round.  He found Curtis Martin in the third round and drafted Marion Barber in the fourth.  McFadden is out of this equation.

The Dolphins will be making the switch to the 3-4 defense.  The key to the 3-4 is finding a good nose tackle.  There are a few Mock Drafts out there that have the Dolphins selecting DT Glenn Dorsey out of LSU.  I don’t see how that is possible.  Dorsey (6’2”, 303) doesn’t have the ideal size to play NT.  A nose tackle needs to hold up and occupy a guard and a center.  That is not Dorsey’s strong point; in fact he struggles at times against a double team.  He is an ideal fit for the 4-3 and if he goes No. 1 it won’t be to the Dolphins.  Dorsey is out.

Jake Long out of Michigan has been a top OL prospect for a couple of years now.  The Dolphins are in the market for a left tackle because Vernon Carey will most likely shift over to RT in 2008.  Even though Long has a lot of experience playing left tackle at Michigan, he will need a little time to grow into that position at the next level.  I see him playing RT during his rookie season.  That is the position where he could really excel in because he is an absolute beast in the run game.  I have no doubts that Long is going to develop into a good LT at the next level, but the Dolphins will be looking for more options at that position.  The Dolphins should make a serious run at LT Flozell Adams in free agency.  He could be reunited with Parcells and should solidify the left side from day one.  They could also decide to address the LT position in the second or the third round.  Left tackle Chris Williams out of Vanderbilt could be a great pickup in the early second round.  Another option is LT Anthony Collins out of Kansas in the third round.  The Dolphins will pass on Jake Long.

Choosing a quarterback with the first pick has always been a popular notion.  Teams have chosen a QB first overall in eight of the last ten drafts.  Miami’s QB situation is definitely unsettled right now.  They just cut Trent Green in the off-season.  There are indications that the team will bring him back.  The Big Tuna loves savvy, veteran quarterbacks, and Green definitely fits the bill.  But he will be 38 years old next season and he is coming off a serious concussion injury.  The organization has to have a backup plan.  John Beck was chosen in the second round of last year’s draft, but he was a favorite of the previous regime.  Parcells has no ties to Beck.  This former BYU QB will have to impress his new boss.  Matt Ryan out of Boston College will be a strong possibility for the Dolphins with the first overall pick.  Miami will love the fact that Ryan is a leader.  He also performs well in the clutch, can buy some time in the pocket and has a high football IQ.  Ryan still has some upside, but he is by no means a sure thing.  When it comes to quarterbacks in particular, there is no such thing as a can’t miss prospect. 

There are some drawbacks that will turn the Big Tuna away from Ryan.  His arm strength is only above average.  His decision making is questionable at times and he is a bit of a gunslinger.  If are going to be a gunslinger in the NFL, you better possess a powerful arm like Tony Romo or Brett Favre.  His interception totals are high for someone who has started for three seasons.  Parcells will not select a QB first overall and have him sit for a couple of years until he trusts him completely.  He will better off selecting a QB later on in the draft and making him his pet project.  Even though he is building this franchise for the future, you can bet that he wants to win now while he is running things.  Ryan is still the best QB in this year’s draft, but I am not sold that he is a franchise type of QB. The Dolphins will pass on Ryan and possibly bring in Billy Volek to compete with Green.

Some will say selecting Chris Long out of Virginia with the top pick is a bit high if he is going to play in the 3-4 alignment.  If he is going to play defensive end in this scheme, he will not make as many impact plays as he would in the 4-3.  It is true that his sack totals will never be high, but when it comes to the draft it is about choosing the best possible prospect that would fit into your system.  Long is a versatile DL that can be used in a variety of ways.  He can rush the passer and is stout against the run.  He has enough athleticism to be able to drop into coverage.  He has an incredibly high motor.  Most importantly, he is a football player in every sense of the word.  He comes from NFL blood lines.  His father Howie Long had a fantastic career in the pros.  He is an intelligent young man that will blow Parcells away in interviews.  He is the ultimate Parcells’ guy.  Chris Long is the pick here.               

If the Dolphins find a suitable trade partner, they will move down in the draft.  I would say that there is a 75% chance of that happening.  The Dolphins need to address a number of positions and therefore are going to try hard to trade the No. 1 pick.  The Cowboys have a couple of late first-round picks and are interested to move up, so they can select McFadden.  They also might include RB Marion Barber in that deal and the Dolphins will do that trade in a heartbeat.  The Falcons could be a possible trade partner because they have extra picks in the second round.  There are two other teams to watch here.  The Chiefs and the Ravens might be willing to move up because they are in the market for a QB.  If QB Matt Ryan is impressive during the Scouting Combine and his Pro Day workout, those two teams will be willing to give up multiple picks to move up in the draft.    

The final verdict:  If they retain the first overall pick, they will select DE Chris Long.  But it is more likely that they will trade down and collect more draft picks in return.