Vikings 2007 Draft Excites Fans and Experts

 

The depth of despair in Vikingland was very deep preceding the draft.  After coming off a disappointing season that ended on a low rather than a high note, the Vikings were expected to expend a sizable a good portion of their large salary cap space available.  When they did not, the despair deepened further.  One pick into the draft and the perception of the Vikings changed dramatically.  Instead of doing the expected, reaching for a wide receiver out of need or grabbing the best defensive end they could find, the Vikings selected the consensus best player available.  Adrian Peterson is something the Vikings have not had since the Randy Moss days and that is a difference-maker that can change the complexion of the game in an instant.  Peterson gives the Vikings speed and power providing an instant jolt to their offense.  All Peterson did during his three years at Oklahoma was break Billy Sims team rushing record and set the NCAA record for most yards as a freshman.  While his sophomore and junior seasons were both injury plagued, he nonetheless ended his Sooner career with twenty two 100 yard games, six 200 yard games and scored 42 touchdowns.  The happiest Viking should be Tarvaris Jackson.  The running game is now strong enough where the defenses will be forced to primarily defend the run and create more opportunities in the passing game.  Unless Peterson's propensity for injury follows him into the pros, the blathering over not drafting Brady Quinn should disappear for good. 

 

Jackson not only got help in the form of a potential blue chip running back, but was provided some additional weapons at receiver.  The Vikings selected receivers in the second, fifth and seventh rounds of the draft.  The Vikings somewhat surprisingly selected Sidney Rice and passed on Dwayne Jarrett both of whom were available after the Vikings traded down to the middle of the second round.  Apparently Rice was rated higher on their draft board.  When you compare the physical features of the two receivers Rice has comparable size and great leaping ability but more speed than Jarrett.  While Rice's production was impressive (2,233 yards and 23 TDs in two years), Jarrett's was even more so.  The pick had to make the Viking faithful a bit nervous as Rice hails from South Carolina, the same school that produced Troy Williamson.  Rice's stock may not have been as high with some draft gurus given that his production may have been viewed as skewed; he played in a Steve Spurrier offense that tends to make receivers look better than they are.  Time will tell which ends up being the better pick.  The Vikings fifth rounder was another receiver in Aundrae Allison, whose stock had apparently fallen due to a sub par senior year in which he was plagued by a bad ankle.  His junior and senior years' combined numbers at East Carolina were 1,723 yards and 11 TDs.   Allison has decent size, good hands, and very good speed.  Allison could turn out to be a steal this late in the draft and would not be a surprise to at least be on the field in three receiver sets during his rookie season.  Chandler Williams of Florida International was the Viking second pick in the seventh round.  Williams was involved in the Miami brawl and received a suspension in 2006 but he still managed 67 receptions for 664 yards and a TD for the season.  Williams does have some kick return ability, which may be the key to him making the final cut.

 

The Vikings first defensive selection was made in the third round when they chose Fresno State corner Marcus McCauley.  McCauley has great size (6-1 and 200) for a corner and excellent speed (4.39).  In fact had McCauley come out after his junior year, he may well have been a first round pick that year.  However, his senior year ended with his level of play falling off significantly.  That may have been in part due to a concussion that he suffered early in 2006.  Whatever the reason, he did not have the same confidence or aggressiveness displayed in his junior year.  The Vikings hope that with coaching and given their scheme McCauley can be a valuable addition to their defensive backfield, something that they sorely need.  McCauley has a real chance to be the Viking nickel back in 2007.  

 

In the fourth round the Vikings moved up four slots and grabbed Brian Robison.  Robison was the other less heralded defensive end at Texas with Tim Crowder being rated much higher on many draft boards.  Robison's career sacks at Texas are hardly impressive (15) but injuries may have played a major factor in the relative lack of production.  Robison's measurables are almost off the chart.  He even outperformed the first defensive player in the draft (Gaines Adams) in pre-draft workouts.  Not only can he run and jump but he is a shot put champion as well.  This draft pick was definitely based upon potential.

 

Based upon their two trades the Vikings gave up one six rounder and gained another which was linebacker Rufus Alexander.  Given his All-American status one wonders why he slipped this far in the draft.  While Alexander's size is not ideal and he lacks the strength that some are looking for, his production was first rate.  He led the Sooners in tackles with 100+ in each of his last two years.  His lack of size did cause some to classify Alexander as only fitting into a Tampa Two defensive scheme, which coincidentally is exactly what the Vikings play.  Alexander may have a hard time cracking the starting line up in 2007, but it is not unrealistic to expect him to make the team and be a special teams contributor.

 

The Vikings finally picked a quarterback in round seven and naturally it was not Brady Quinn.   It was Tyler Thigpen, a Coastal Carolina product, who showed some real potential for the first time in his career in his senior season.  He can be considered a developmental prospect that probably will be a candidate for the practice squad and get an NFL Europe assignment.  It would be a major surprise for him to make the final roster let alone see any playing time this year.  

 

This draft was somewhat of a novel experience for Vikings fans in the way it was conducted.  The team actually positioned themselves and made picks like they understood the dynamics of the draft, something that clearly had not been the case with prior Viking regimes.  There was not what anyone would consider a reach taken with any of the picks.  Furthermore, trades netted the Vikings some flexibility to move around both up and down and get the players that they wanted.  They really took Denver to the cleaners in the fourth round.  Denver gave up sixth and seventh round picks in this year's draft plus a third round pick in next year's draft for the 22nd pick in the fourth round, which the Vikings had acquired by trading down in the second round.  I think at least some of the credit has to be given to VP Rick Spielman, who is the only new face with authority to come on board since last year.  It sure appears that he added some draft savvy to the Viking organization. 

 

If there was a central theme to this Viking draft it was we want talent and athleticism and we are not concerned about injuries.   This drafting philosophy started with Peterson and carried through for four of the first five picks.  Even pick six was not really an aberration in that they took speed and athleticism in Alexander when many downgraded him for his size.  The Vikings sorely needed more speed on both sides of the ball and got it.  They needed receivers and got them.  They needed a game breaker and got one.  They needed to shore up their pass defense and now have two players, who may be able to do just that.  All that and you might be tempted to give the Vikings an A+ for this draft but I cannot.  They swung for the fences and may have hit some home runs but with injuries serious enough to significantly adversely affect performance for Peterson, McCauley, Robison, and Allison, some caution is needed.  Certainly an A for talent, but only if written in pencil not ink given some of the uncertainties of these draftees.  If nothing else, this infusion of talent has, for many, rekindled interest in the Vikings. 

Vikings Draft Preview

 

With plenty of cap room, the Vikings looked poised going into free agency to address their primary needs and instead focus on a draft where picks would be made based upon the qualities of the player rather than being influenced by the position played.  A weak free agency foray by the Vikings ended that possibility.  The most glaring weaknesses that the Vikings had are still present; wide receiver, defensive end, the right side of the offensive line, and nickle backs are all positions of need and cannot be ignored.   

 

In fairness the Vikings did at least make a good step in the right direction in signing free agent Bobby Wade.  Wade is a solid slot receiver and should help the offense.  However, other than the unreliable Troy Williamson and a bunch of unproven youngsters, the Vikings have nothing else to offer at wide receiver.  Williamson's participation in a program designed to identify and help vision and hand/eye coordination problems gives hope that his career can yet be salvaged.  If he does improve like Jake Reed was able to do, then the need is not as great; Reed had similar problems in holding on to the football prior to his getting some assistance with hand/eye coordination.   Regardless, there is no question that the Vikings need at least one more major threat in their receiving corps.  Calvin Johnson would be the ideal fix but unless the Vikings are willing to trade up, he will be long gone by pick seven.  None of the other receivers in the draft are rated high enough to warrant being selected as the number seven overall pick in the draft.  In fact, if the Vikings do not trade down (a more likely scenario given Rick Spielman's past history) I would be surprised if the Vikings look to offense in the first round.  If the Vikings wait until round two there are a number of quality receivers who could still be on the board.  Those players could include Steve Smith (USC), Jason Hill (Wash St.), Anthony Gonzales (Ohio St.) and maybe even Dwayne Jarrett (USC).  Any of these receivers could bolster the Vikings weak unit.  Smith may have moved into the first round by showing excellent speed at the Combine to go along with his solid hands and overall solid play.  Hill also caused a buzz and probably made some money by running well at the Combine.  Jarrett on the other hand did not run well and failed to break 4.6 in multiple timed runs.  Jarrett may not have speed but he sure has size and production.       

 

Games started: 16; Sacks: 0.  That is what Kenechi Udeze did, or perhaps more correctly, did not do last year.  That statistic virtually screams that there is a need for a capable pass rusher despite Coach Childress' complimenting Udeze's play last year.  If the first round pick is not a receiver, then strong consideration needs to be made for a defensive end.  The Vikings were lit up all year through the air and a primary contributor was a lack of a pass rush.  Gaines Adams (Clemson) is generally considered to be the best pass rusher in the draft.  While he is a bit small for an every down defensive end at 260 pounds, Adams has the explosion and quickness needed to pressure quarterbacks.  The next highest rated defensive end is Jamaal Anderson (Arkansas).  Anderson's productivity, athleticism, and production (13.5 sacks in 2006) has many a scout raving about his potential in the NFL.  Anderson is more of an everydown lineman with his 6'6" and 280 pound frame.  Either player would appear to make sense at pick seven.  If the Vikings wait until the second or third round for a defensive end, possibilities include Georgia's Quentin Moses (once highly rated but underperformed in '06), Central Michigan's Dan Bazuin (high energy small college phenom), Notre Dame's Victor Abiamira, and Texas' Tim Crowder.   

 

Another possibility is safety Laron Landry (LSU).  Landry has all of the measurables one would want; he has ideal size and speed for a NFL safety.  He would be an interesting pick as it would not be one that is at a position of highest need.  The Vikings do have a glut of safeties on the team thanks to the recent signing of Mike Doss.  But the glut is really at strong safety where Tank Williams, Dwight Smith and Greg Blue join Doss as potential starters.  Landry is probably best suited to free safety where the capable but aging Darren Sharper sits atop the depth chart.  If Landry is the pick, the Vikings would be hard pressed to keep him out of the lineup no matter which position they choose for him.  Landry is not the only quality safety in this draft.  Others with first round potential, but probably not top ten picks, include Reggie Nelson, Brandon Meriweather, and Michael Griffin.  These three are probably too high for a number seven pick and likely gone by the Vikings second round pick so would not come into play unless the Vikings pull off a trade or two.     

 

Offensive linemen are generally not coveted in the early rounds of the draft with the exception of left tackles.  Since the Vikings needs are on the right side of the line it would be very unexpected to see a first round pick used on an offensive lineman.  A more likely scenario has the Vikings pulling the trigger on a lineman in the 3rd or 4th round where good prospects at these positions are still often found.  Some later round tackle possibilities are Doug Free, Ryan Harris, Joe Staley, and Tony Ugoh.             

 

A lot of mock drafts have the Vikings taking Brady Quinn with their first pick.  At the risk of blowing their smoke screen, I highly doubt this is the direction the Vikings are going.  Early in the off-season Coach Childress was asked about drafting a quarterback and downplayed the possibility.  It was not long thereafter that Rick Spielman and Brad Childress were saying that a quarterback was a possibility.  The Vikings invested in Taravaris Jackson last year by moving up into the second round to pick him.  Jackson has not yet bloomed into a quality NFL quarterback, but after all he was still a rookie last year and can be expected to improve.  If the Vikings are very fortunate Brady Quinn will be sitting there when the Vikings are on the clock, not because he should be their pick but because he could create value.  Brady's availability would create some strong interest by teams wanting to move up to select Quinn.  The Vikings could well parlay a move down into the first round into a possible extra second round pick.  A similar scenario could exist for Adrian Peterson, although I would not totally discount the possibility of the Vikings drafting Peterson under the best player available philosophy.     

 

Regardless of who is available if there is a willing partner, a move down to add more draft picks makes sense.  The Vikings need help in a lot of areas.  By trading down and stockpiling draft picks the Vikings would position themselves to be able to fill multiple needs through the draft.  With Rick Spielman on board, trading down is likely at least a 50/50 proposition.  However, assuming that the Vikings stand pat and do not make any deals here's my idea of a great draft for the Vikings:

 

Round        Pick                            Position                      Quick Rationale

1                Laron Landry               Safety                         Best player available, helps leaky secondary

2                Dwayne Jarrett             Receiver                     Big target that catches TDs (think Chris Carter)

3                Victor Abiamira            Defensive End             Had 10.5 sacks in '06

4                David Irons                   Corner                       Tough physical corner 

5                Garrett Wolfe               Running Back             Too small at 5' 7" but too good to pass up

6                Corey Hilliard               Guard                        Athletic and versatile

7                David Ball                    Receiver                     Too slow but broke Jerry Rice's TD record with 58 career TDs

Vikings tread softly in free agency

 

Despite having approximately $20 million in cap room left after signing three free agents, the Vikings have been unexpectedly quiet.  While it may be a good strategy not to blow big bucks on what many consider a talent-starved free agent market this year, it remains unclear what steps they plan on taking to bolster a squad that needs more than fine tuning.  That amount of cap room could even grow next year if some additional money is not spent this year.  Is this part of a grand scheme to load up on free agents when the talent pool is much stronger or is it simply not being able to attract top quality free agents?  Most would guess it is the latter. 

 

It is not that the three free agents signed were necessary bad additions, just not the major acquisitions that were made last year.  All three could be, in their own way, important contributors for the 2007 Vikings.  Bobby Wade has some ability as a slot receiver.  He may not be the fastest receiver in the league but does know how to get open, which is more than could be said for some of his predecessors.  If he can do a better job than Travis Taylor, who filled the role of possession receiver last year, then Wade will be well worth the price that the Vikings paid for him.  However, even if Troy Williamson manages to improve his ability to catch the ball, the Vikings are still very short on receivers.  Williamson reportedly had some additional testing done on his eye/hand coordination and some unidentified problems were found.  Any casual observer of the Vikings already knew that.  The bigger question that is still unanswered is if there is anything that they can do to correct the problem. 

 

Visanthe Shiancoe was hardly a household name when the Vikings signed him.  He did not see much time on the field as the tight end has been Jeremy Shockey's back up since joining the Giants.  The Vikings' brass must have seen something in him in that he was offered starter's money to sign.  Look for Shiancoe to immediately be slotted as the Vikings' starting tight end.  If he can prove to be a worthy target that can stretch the field a little, then he will valuable to the Vikings.  However, he does not have to go far in improving on the subpar performance turned in by the departed Jermaine Wiggins, 386 yards and only one TD. 

 

The third free agent signing was former Carolina linebacker Vinnie Ciurciu.  He is unlikely to crack the starting lineup as a linebacker but Ciurciu is considered to be a special teams maven.  If he provides some leadership on the special teams units, the signing will be a significant plus.   

 

Of course there were Vikings going the other direction.  Those leaving the Vikings include Brad Johnson, Fred Smoot, Napoleon Harris and Jermaine Wiggins.  Of the four, only Harris was highly productive in 2006.  His departure could be sorely felt.  He played middle linebacker as well as anyone the Vikings have fielded in recent history.  It is certainly a question mark whether E. J. Henderson, whom the Vikings locked up with a long term contract, or Dontarrious Thomas can move into the middle and produce the way that Harris did this past year.  Both have had some time at middle linebacker but have yet to gel at the position.  It would be a plus if last year's first round pick, Chad Greenway, can come back from an injury and takeover one of the outside linebacker spots.  After a year in which the Viking linebackers were a strength, the linebackers, as a whole, have become a question mark.

 

Johnson's leadership will be missed, at least off the field.  His play deteriorated considerably in 2006 and he would not have had a starting job.  But he could have provided some depth along with his leadership skills and character.  Smoot, on the other hand, was hardly a role model.  In addition his on the field performance was likewise lacking.  Smoot did not even perform in the one area that was considered his long suit, pass coverage.  Smoot ended up losing his job to rookie Cedric Griffin and would not have been a starter in 2007 had he stayed.  The same was true for Wiggins.  The Vikings did a favor to all three releasing them as they clearly were not a part of the Vikings future plans. 

 

The only other potential problematic loss in free agency could be Darrion Scott, a defensive lineman that provided valuable depth for the Vikings and gave them at least a little pass rush capability.  Scott is a restricted free agent so it would be expected that unless Scott gets a mammoth offer from another team, the Vikings will not let him go. 

 

Without some further free agent signings, the Vikings still have some major holes going into the draft.  Certainly defensive end and wide receiver are major areas of need.  Further help at linebacker and at corner are also needed.  Keep an eye on these positions as we approach the draft. 

A look toward free agency

 

Much of the recent journalistic football chatter has been focusing either on the draft or recent coaching moves, but a look at the free agency period is more timely for most teams as it is the next important phase of the off-season.  As has been the case for the past couple of years, the Vikings are in decent shape from a salary cap perspective and will likely be in the upper half once they cut a few veterans including but not limited to Fred Smoot and Brad Johnson.  They will have some salary cap flexibility to go after at least a couple of major free agents.  Here's a position by position look with an eye toward what the Vikings need and might want.

 

Quarterback: 

Matt Schaub is probably the most sought after quarterback but is a restricted free agent.  Look for Atlanta to spike up the price so that it will not only cost a lot of money to sign him but a number one pick as well.  This is probably not the price that the Vikings want to pay especially if they believe in the long term future of Tarvaris Jackson.  Jeff Garcia really came alive when handed the Eagles' reins in mid-season and looked like he has plenty of gas left in the tank.  For a team looking for a short term quarterback solution that runs a west coast offense like the Eagles do, Garcia looks like a perfect fit.  Of course that means that he is a very good fit for the Vikings.  He will not come cheap but if the Vikings wish to seriously contend next year they need to upgrade at quarterback which means that either Jackson (or perhaps Brook Bollinger) needs to step it up big time or someone like Garcia needs to be signed.  He will not be cheap but may well be worth it.  Damon Huard really surprised a lot of people by more than ably stepping in for the injured Trent Green.  He may be a very good insurance policy for a team like the Vikings who are looking for someone to be able to adequately man the quarterback spot while their quarterback of the future, Jackson, gets some more seasoning.  Tim Rattay also showed some ability once getting a chance to start in Tampa Bay.  Rattay is probably not someone to hand over the starting spot to but would be a good veteran back up that could start if needed.

 

Running Back:

Michael Turner is probably the hottest item among free agent running backs.  Turner has really showed some ability in subbing for Ladainian Tomlinson.  Signing Turner may be more of an investment than the Vikings are looking to make given the money wrapped up in Chester Taylor last year.  Adrian Peterson has shown glimpses of real talent as a running back but is third in the Bears' depth chart and never has seen much action.  He could be a good second back behind Taylor and will likely be an affordable option.  Ahman Green and Correll Buckhalter have some talent but have a propensity for injury and cannot be counted upon.  They may be worth signing if the price is right as insurance in case Taylor gets hurt.

 

Wide Receiver:

Donte Stallworth is arguably the best of a mediocre lot of free agent wide receivers.  He does have the ability to stretch the field which is something the Vikings need badly.  However, Stallworth has been inconsistent over his career and is much too capable of dropping very catchable passes, a trait that is reminiscent of Troy Williamson.   Stallworth had 725 yards and 5 TDs in what turned out to be basically a half a season due to injury.  Drew Bennett has been a quality receiver for a number of years but never has really been a true go-to guy.  He would be a good addition to the Viking team as a number two or number three receiver.  His best year was in 2004 when he had 1,247 yards in receiving and 11 TDs.  The last two years have been much more modest due in part to injury and probably in part to changes to the offense of the Titans.  Kevin Curtis is the number three receiver for the Rams and has the potential to be at least a number two receiver for some other team.  Curtis is another receiver capable of making a big play but the book is still out whether or not he can be a team's number one receiver.  Curtis is not an ideal goal line receiver due to his only average size. 

 

Tight End:

Daniel Graham is probably the premier tight end available in free agency.  Graham likely will not come cheap and certainly not when considering actual yardage and TDs for his career.  He really only had one year in which he was a major factor and that was 2004 when he caught 7 TDs but even that year he only garnered 364 receiving yards.  Graham will get his money based upon his pure athletic talent rather than production.  Eric Johnson on the other hand is not as athletic but has produced especially in 2004 when he caught 82 passes for 825 yards.  Johnson became expendable when the Niners drafted Vernon Davis.  

 

Right Tackle/Right Guard

If the Vikings want to continue to spend big money on the offensive line, they could take a run at the Steelers Max Starks or Mike Gandy of the Bills.  Both will probably command a stiff salary which may be too much for the Vikings to absorb.  Leonard Davis a Cardinal unrestricted free agent, is a prototypical right tackle with huge size and strength.  He has not quite lived up to his hype but still would likely be an upgrade over the incumbent right tackles. 

 

Defensive End:

There are some real top notch defensive ends that are unrestricted free agents.  However, it is a long shot that any will actually be available.  Reportedly Justin Smith has already been franchised by the Bengals.  The Colts are expected to do the same with Dwight Freeney.  The Chief's Jared Allen also has some pass rushing capability that would help the Vikings. 

 

Linebacker:

Linebacker is not a position of critical need for the Vikings but there is one free agent that any team should covet, Adalius Thomas.  He is simply too good not to pursue.  If the Vikings were to commit the money, Thomas would single-handedly upgrade the defense.  Another linebacker that is available and maybe of interest is Lavar Arrington who was recently cut by the Giants.  Arrington certainly has some talent but has had the injury bug the past three years.     

 

If the Vikings can pick up a couple of starters in this initial free agency period, they will gain significantly more flexibility going into the draft in April.  However, wide receiver is such a crying need that even if the Vikings do sign a free agent that can start, further help via the draft is almost a must in the early rounds.  If as expected, Calvin Johnson is gone,  there is a very good chance that the Vikings will look to another receiver in the first or second round.  Luckily for the Vikings the draft is deep in receivers.  Drew Bennett is my favorite choice to get the Vikings started out right in free agency with Kevin Curtis being a good consolation prize.     

A Disappointing Season Comes to an End

 

Mercifully it is over;  a season of failure, a season of disappointment for the Vikings and their fans finally comes to an ugly finish.  The Viking fans had every reason to be optimistic.  After all, under the prior regime the team was basically a .500 team on the cusp of playoffs in consecutive years despite all the distractions and had added some very good players in free agency.  So what went wrong?

 

Plenty of things went wrong and some of it started before the season began.  Noone knew how badly the Vikings would miss Koren Robinson and Nate Burleson.  The departures left the Vikings in deplorable shape at receiver.  The heir to be the number one guy, Troy Williamson badly regressed instead of stepping up to the challenge.  Opposing coaches quickly saw that the Vikings had a weak armed quarterback with a bunch of slow possession receivers and one deep threat that could not catch the ball.  The natural adjustment was to load the box and stop short passes and runs.  

 

Because of the way opponents played the Vikings, the moribund deep passing game was ignored as a threat and made the running and short passing games all that much more difficult to execute with any degree of proficiency.  Of course it is not impossible to execute the short game even when the opposition is set up to defend it.  To do so requires superior offensive line play.

 

Unfortunately despite all of the money that was spent on the offensive line, it simply did not produce.  There certainly was an adjustment for the linemen switching to a zone blocking scheme.  There was also the factor of a lot of new faces that needed to come together.  But if these were the lone impediments, the line play would have improved as the season progressed but did not do so.  The line had its moments, but clearly was not cohesive, let alone dominant.  There were three different right tackles that saw substantial action, Marcus Johnson, Mike Rosenthal and Ryan Cook.  None of them were able to do the job.  Pass protection was never good, average at times, and as often as not, terrible.  Mental mistakes really plagued the line. 

 

Defensively there was certainly a bright spot with the Viking run defense.  If not for a total let down in their last game they would have set a record for least yards allowed.  On the other hand their pass defense was porous and among the worst in the league.  Many have identified the culprit as the lack of a pass rush.  There is no question that this significantly contributed to the difficulties defending the pass.  Whenever you have a starting defensive end, Kenechi Udeze, who fails to get a single sack for the entire year you know you are in trouble.  

 

However, the pass defense problems are not isolated to the lack of a pass rush.  Coverage was often loose and sometimes almost nonexistent.  Fred Smoot was known as a cover corner who tackled poorly.  He did not do either particularly well during the 2006 season and was deservedly benched later in the year.  Antoine Winfield is a great run defender and tackler for a corner but is more average than great in pass defense.  Similarly, both safeties were better against the run as well, Darren Sharper probably because he as lost a step and Dwight Smith because he never was quick enough to defend the pass consistently well.  This theme also holds true for the linebackers.  As a unit they excelled in stopping the run but lacked the speed and quickness to be good against the pass.  Childress went into the season with a defensive squad that was inherently weak against the pass.  They were able to mask those deficiencies somewhat by playing better in the red zone but overall the weakness of this part of the game also contributed to the malaise. 

 

Childress gave every impression that he is a no nonsense coach.  He certainly did not seem to shy away from disciplining players when they stepped out of line.  But curiously this did not translate into discipline on the field.  The Vikings led the league in penalties with 123.  There were five teams with more penalty yards.  Of course, that means that the Vikings committed more mental errors such as false starts.  

 

So there you have it, an undisciplined team with some major gaps in talent.  Add in a coach that was unimaginative on offense and you end up with a six win ten loss season.  The only good thing in the way the season ended is that the Vikings leapfrogged a number of other teams into the seventh spot in the draft, which normally yields something that is sorely needed by the Vikings, an impact player.  If you are looking at receiver for that impact player, the performances of Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Jarrett on January 1st had to make the Vikings and others picking early stand up and take notice.   

 

Overdue for a change at the helm

 

It seems that nearly all Viking fans, the Viking defense, sports writers and most of the rest of the world that watches football has known what Coach Brad Childress may finally be realizing after the debacle in Chicago;  Brad Johnson no longer has the skills to be a competent starting quarterback in the NFL.  A quarterback change has been overdue for weeks but Childress has stubbornly stuck with Johnson.  How much more plain can it be?  Johnson is immobile, possesses a weak arm and his primary asset, steady no mistake football, has dissipated completely.  Brad Johnson has evolved into a turnover machine.  Johnson is a great guy and as much as I would like him to be able to produce, he simply has no gas left in the tank.  

 

It is not that the Vikings have a sure thing at quarterback waiting in the wings; a change is needed regardless of the other options available.  A good coach does not continue to utilize strategies that clearly do not work.  If Childress is that kind of coach then he must surely realize that failure is virtually guaranteed with Brad Johnson at the helm.  

 

So what are the options, a banged up Brooks Bollinger and a relatively raw but talented rookie in Tarvaris Jackson.  Bollinger has some skills and could produce some wins in a stop gap mode provided that his injury suffered in the Bears game is not too serious.  He did fill in for the injured Chad Pennington in New York and did a decent job of running the team.  Bollinger does not appear to have the skills to carry the Vikings on his back but that is not what they desperately need right now.  They need someone who can manage the offense with a minimum of turnovers and put score a moderate amount of points.  With the defense playing well, that would equate to a number of victories.  Jackson on the other hand probably would turn the ball over more but has the potential to score points in bunches and open up the running game considerably.  Jackson has a good arm and can keep defenses honest.  He also has the ability to scramble which has some value given the less than stellar pass protection provided by the offensive line this year.  Either or both could fail but they have a chance to succeed, which is unfortunately more than can be said of Johnson now.  

 

Another less pressing problem is the right side of the offensive line.  Both underachievers, Marcus Johnson and Artis Hicks were injured and replaced in the last two games.  The replacements upgraded the offensive line play.  Not that Jason Whittle at guard or Mike Rosenthal and Ryan Cook at tackle have blown people away with their level of play.  All three have made maddening penalties but have for the most part handled the rushers, something that neither Johnson nor Hicks were able to do.  Now that these two starters are becoming healthy again, what will Childress do?  Will he repeat the mistake he has made so far at quarterback and keep on riding that same broken down horse that you started with?  He finally had enough of Troy Williamson's dropped passes and demoted him.  He should have done it sooner but kept Williamson not only in the starting line up but in the game when in counted.  

 

Other than giving up a bunch of yards in the passing game the defense has continued to performed well.  Time after time this year the defense has kept the Vikings in the game just to see the offense squander opportunities.  The pinnacle of that defensive effort may have been the Bears game.  Not only did they continue to dominate opposing running games but they completely shut down the Bears passing game.  Of course it was all for naught as the special teams and offense, more specifically Brad Johnson, let down the team.  

 

At this stage, there is still a chance at salvaging the season and making the playoffs.  At a record of  5 wins and 7 losses, they are more than merely a mathematical possibility.  Their wild card rivals only lead the Vikings by one game.  Nine wins for any NFC team is almost a guarantee of a playoff berth.  Even eight wins may be good enough this year.  But do not expect the Vikings to get into the playoffs unless Childress reverses course and replaces Brad Johnson.  The defense simply cannot realistically play well enough to overcome a moribund Johnson led offense.  The season hangs in the balance;  Childress's quarterback choice will tip that balance one direction or the other.      

Vikings Fumbling Away Season

A mere two weeks ago the Vikings had a winning record, been through the most difficult part of their schedule and seemed poised for a good record and a playoff berth. Those fanciful thoughts have all but disappeared. Two straight losses to clubs with losing records put the Vikings in a hole from which they may not be able to climb out. The worst thing about it is that they literally only have themselves to blame. They have fumbled, either literally or figuratively, away opportunity after opportunity to win games.

The last two games are but reflections of all of the Viking losses (except the New England blow out); they had chances to win and due to bad execution failed to deliver. In the San Francisco game it was in addition to the ultra-conservative offense, poor play of the offensive line and all too familiar mishaps by Viking receivers. Yet another Troy Manos de Piedra Williamson dropped pass resulted once again in a missed scoring opportunity. Using the Roberto Duran metaphor would be great compliment to a boxer's punching ability but sadly it is all too apt for Williamson. In fact referring to his non-catch as a dropped pass may be an overstatement in of itself as Williamson did not even come close to catching it. Williamson has become an offensive liability. Let's not put all the blame on Williamson. He had help. Travis Taylor has also dropped some key passes and by the way was guilty of committing a key penalty negating a touchdown against the Forty Niners. The receivers did have a chance to really shine in the Green Bay game. Two touchdowns by seldom used Billy McMullen and an apparent kick off for a touchdown and some nice catches by Bethel Johnson seemed to ignite the team. But once again something happened. This time is was Artose Pinner, the backup running back and special teams player was called for a illegal block in the back negating Johnson's touchdown return. Pinner was not done. At the end of the fourth quarter with the Vikings needing one more possession to have a chance to come back and win, the Vikings recovered an onside kick only to have it negated by Pinner. This time he was off side.

The receivers do not have a lock on ineffective and error-prone play. Brad Johnson has done his share as well. The offense went two games without scoring a touchdown before exploding for two touchdowns against the Packers. Yes that is how ineffectual the offense has been, a two touchdown day by the offense literally is an explosion by comparison. Johnson is not entirely to blame either as the Viking pass blocking has been spotty. However, Johnson for someone who has a reputation for not making mistakes keeps throwing interceptions and fumbling the ball. Johnson never was fast and has now reached a point in his career where he is virtually a sitting duck to pass rushers. He simply has little ability to avoid the rush and some of his throws look like they were thrown by the kid that he was nicknamed for, Opie Taylor.

After playing the best game in many years against the Forty Niners, the defense slipped against the Packers and allowed Brett Favre to beat them through the air. The killer play was probably the touchdown to Driver. It looked as if Roynell Whitaker was caught looking into the backfield and safety help was too far away to catch Driver who split the middle of the field and went the distance untouched. This was a really deflating as the Vikings had just pinned the Packers down against their goal line. The lack of a pass rush contributed to the malaise that permeated the Viking pass defense. Favre had plenty of time to allow routes to develop and at times it seemed that he had all day to pass. Ray Edwards being deactivated hurt the unit at an already thin position, defensive end. No explanation was given for this action but given Childress’ track record it almost is a given that the reason was for disciplinary reasons.

The question is what now. They still have a shot at the playoffs so drastic measures such as starting Tarvaris Jackson are probably not in the offing. It would not be a surprise to see some other personnel changes. Perhaps a greater role for Bethel Johnson at the expense of Williamson. Marcus Johnson could be a casualty of his continued subpar performances. Perhaps there may even be a change or two on the defense. From this perspective it is time to gamble. Brad Johnson simply cannot play behind a leaky offensive line and be effective. Jackson is the only quarterback that has the quickness to avoid the rush and make something happen when the offensive line loses protection. Jackson also has something else that is lacking, a strong arm to connect on longer passes. Defenses would have two more things to worry about that they do not have now, the deep pass and a scrambling quarterback. It may not work but it seems all too apparent that the status quo will not work. It is time to try something that may work rather than something we know is not working.

Vikings are good but have weaknesses  

 

Coming off a huge win on the road against Seattle, the Vikings looked to be a very strong football team.  The Vikings literally dominated the Seahawks on both sides of the ball and seemed poised to take on a top caliber New England team.  Chester Taylor ran all over the Seahawk defense including setting a Viking record with a 95 yard touchdown run.  The defense slammed the door on the Seahawk running game and constantly pressured back up quarterback Seneca Wallace who came in after starter Matt Hasselbeck was injured.  Then came the New England game.

 

Viking fans can thank Bill Belichick for one thing, clarifying how good this Viking team is. He is the type of coach that will expose teams' weaknesses and that he did against the Vikings on Monday night.  His defensive game plan was, from an overall strategic standpoint, to crowd the line.  Linebackers and defensive backs did not stray far from the line of scrimmage being in position to defend the run and the short pass.  This strategy blunted the strength of the Viking offense. 

 

Of course the way to attack this type of defense is to throw long, which the Vikings do not do well, in part due to Brad Johnson being the quarterback and in part due to the quality of the wide receivers.  Johnson simply does not have the arm strength to throw long consistently or effectively.  The occasional good throw is one made in his normal progression with his feet set and a follow through free of obstruction.  In other words he needs the pattern to work as planned and there to be no disruption from the pass rush.  Viking observers who felt that the offense was too conservative before can look forward to other teams to mimic the defensive strategy of the Patriots.  The question now becomes is Brad Johnson up to taking advantage of those teams using the Patriot strategy.  The answer is "no", not now, not with this team.  It is very questionable whether Johnson would be able to do so even if he had a better receiver corps.  Unfortunately his main deep threat, Troy Williamson, continues to show an uncanny knack for dropping the long ball.  The injury to Marcus Robinson contributed to this malaise as Robinson appears to be the only receiver who can effectively go long.  Do not look for Viking coach Brad Childress to follow Bill Parcell's lead and bench his veteran quarterback.  The primary back up is Brooks Bollinger, who has only average arm strength and likely would do little to improve this aspect of the game.  The other choice, Tarvaris Jackson, does have the physical attributes to both avoid the rush and throw long, but he is a rookie.  Most people would be shocked if Childress were to make either change. 

 

The offensive line did not do much to help the cause on Monday night either.  Their pass protection left a lot to be desired.  Both tackles were beaten on multiple occasions.  Marcus Johnson looked completely inept at times and the vaunted left side with Bryant McKinnie was not too much better.  Childress did the right thing Monday night by trying to attack the Patriot defense in the air.  Unfortunately that would only work if the offensive line provided adequate protection, which it clearly did not do.  

 

Belichick not only employed the correct strategy defensively; he also directed a wide open pass offense against the Vikings.  Clearly he recognized that the strength of the Viking defense was against the run.  He had Tom Brady throw and throw often with multiple receiver sets.  Brady does not have a bevy of renown receivers either but effectively spread the ball around to open receivers.  Unlike Johnson, Brady has a quick release with some juice on the ball and can get it to recievers who are momentarily open in the zones.  Brady literally picked apart the Viking pass defense for much of the game.  The only effective defensive ploy that the Vikings were able to use is the blitz.  When the pass rush got to Brady, the defense was successful.  When the pass rush was not there, and it was not there often with the standard four man rush, Brady performed virtually flawlessly.  E. J. Henderson and Napoleon Harris are outstanding against the run but are very average against the pass.  the Patriots scheme forced them to predominately do what they do not do best.  The Vikings would have been better off to rush either or both more often.  Likewise defensive backs Antoine Winfield and Dwight Smith fall in to the same category, better run defenders that pass defenders.  The Viking pass defense has at times played better when in the nickel set with rookie Cedric Griffin playing the corner and Winfield moving over to the slot.  It would take a bold move to move the high priced Winfield to nickel and put Griffin as the starting corner, but one that may need to be considered if other teams are going to continue to try and beat the Vikings through the air.

 

Although the Patriot game plan and the execution by the team effectively beat the Vikings on Monday night, one could not help feeling that the officials made the Vikings job all that much more difficult.  The officiating could not in of itself turn the Vikings loss into a victory but they helped make the scoring margin greater than it should have been.  Clearly the call on Jermaine Wiggin's fumble was wrong and was even more befuddling in that the review still did not get it right.  In addition there were two interference calls, one offensive and one defensive, that were marginal at best and came at critical times for the Vikings.  Good teams overcome these obstacles; the Vikings were not a good team Monday night. 

 

So there you have it; a strong running team that does not throw deep effectively coupled with a great run defense that can be beaten with a good spread pass offense.  That is the state of affairs of the Vikings at this stage of the season.  This is also a good time to measure where the Vikings have been and where they are going. Week seven was really a milestone for the Vikings.  It is not quite at the half way point from a games played standpoint but there is a very definite difference in the difficulty of the schedule between the first seven games and the following nine games. A four win three loss record at this juncture is realistically as good as could be expected given the Vikings schedule and where they are at as a team.  The first seven games featured a number of difficult games against potential playoff teams, Carolina, Chicago, New England and Seattle winning two of those.  After the Monday night matchup against New England the schedule eases up considerably.  The games do not include a team with a winning record until December 3rd at Chicago.  The November schedule may be the easiest in the league.  The year finishes up with the Jets and Rams, who may or may not still be in the playoff hunt by the end of the year.  There is reason to believe that eleven wins are there for the taking with an outside shot at twelve.  Of course that means playing very consistent football throughout the balance of the season and winning some difficult games.  Unfortunately, there is also the chance that other teams will learn from Belichick and execute the type of game plan that consistently plays to the Vikings weaknesses;  if so, the last half of the season could be a source of disappointment rather than an enjoyable playoff run.  Much will also depend upon the ability of the Vikings to regroup and play inspired football in the last half of the season.      

Which Half Is It?

 

After four games the Vikings stand two and two, two close victories and two close defeats.  They could have won all four or could have lost all four; they were that close.  So is the glass half empty or half full for the Vikings in 2006?  I am not sure anyone can answer that question right now. 

 

There is probably nothing more mystifying to Vikings fans and probably the staff as well than the performance of the Vikings offense.  It is been anemic all year.  The much heralded offensive line has been spotty, better than average in run blocking but hardly dominant.  The passing game has suffered in part due to insufficient protection.  The other part and that is puzzling given the emphasis of the staff is mistakes.  Costly penalties have derailed drives on multiple occasions, which are coming more often than not from the right side. 

 

Another factor in the offensive ineptness appears to be the receivers.  The one receiver that can really make the opposition pay for tight coverage has been simply erratic.  Troy Williamson has dropped nearly as many balls as he as caught.  He is getting open and has been tantalizingly close to making big plays.  He has dropped some and was inexplicably called for interference on another.  Of course it is not all Williamson as Marcus Robinson managed to let a sure touchdown pass and possible game winner at Buffalo get away from him. 

 

While Brad Johnson is steady as ever, he is at times overly conservative.  If the primary receivers are initially covered he quickly drops the ball off underneath.  On first and second down that is not such a bad thing but the problem has been that it is frequently on third down with the expected result of a punt ensuing. 

 

Defensively this team has definitely been an improvement over prior years.  It is a credit to this teams defense to be in all four games with the offense having yet to score 20 points in any of the four games.  They are not at the level of an elite defense yet but they have played solidly.  The defensive tackles, Pat and Kevin Williams have more than held their own.  Even the linebackers a position considered weak have continued to hold up despite another injury.  Ben Leber missed the Buffalo game and was replaced by Dontarrious Thomas.  There was no discernable drop off in effectiveness.  Another injury sidelined Darren Sharper for much of the second half.  Greg Blue stepped in and made his presence felt.  Unlike some of the other tackling that was done by the secondary when Blue hit people they went down.  I do not know if they Vikings can get enough pass protection out of Blue to play him regularly but if so, he should be starting.  Simply put Blue's tackling makes a difference.  Another rookie defensive difference maker has been Ray Edwards.  Despite limited time on the field he along with Kevin Williams have been the ones that have put the most pressure on opposing quarterbacks.     

 

That is more than you can say about the punting.  Chris Kluwe kicked one of the all time poorest punts you will ever see.  It went 9 yards. 

 

So two wins two losses, some good things some bad things, what does that portend for the Vikings is the question.  There are legitimate arguments that can be made for both good and bad outcomes.  A win at Detroit in week 5 is probably a must for the glass to be considered half full.