Pittsburgh Steelers Column

7/19/08

The Next Generation

Since there’s basically no Steelers news other than the ownership drama at the moment, I thought I’d take a look ahead to what talent may be available to the Steelers next April.

An obvious factor in the long-term planning for the team is the relative strengths and weaknesses of the 2009 draft class. It’s hard to say definitively how that draft class will look when the underclassmen haven’t declared yet, but even just looking at the seniors, it looks like next year’s draft will have a surplus of good offensive linemen, including: OTs Michael Oher (Mississippi), Phil Loadholt (Oklahoma), Alex Boone (Ohio State), Max Unger (Oregon) and Andrew Gardner (Georgia Tech); OGs “Duke” Robinson (Oklahoma), Jeremy Perry (Oregon State), Herman Johnson (LSU), Steve Rehring (Ohio State) and Kraig Urbik (Wisconsin); and OCs Jonathan Luigs (Arkansas), Alex Mack (California) and Antoine Caldwell (Alabama).

Looking at draft-eligible underclassmen, you could add a number of other offensive linemen for possible Day One consideration including OTs Andre Smith (Alabama), Ciron Black (LSU) and Sam Young (Notre Dame), OG Sergio Render (Virginia Tech) and OCs Rafael Eubanks (Iowa) and Josh McNeil (Tennessee). It remains to be seen how many of these guys declare, or, more importantly, how they do during this upcoming season and how that affects their draft projections.

Regarding the team’s long-term picture, the team faces the impending unrestricted free agency of starting LT Marvel Smith, possible starting OT Max Starks, backup LT Trai Essex and possible starting OG Chris Kemoeatu, and LT/LG Willie Colon will be a RFA. It would not surprise me if one of these guys signed an extension before the upcoming season begins, but the team is tap-dancing on the cap limit at the moment and likely will focus on signing 2008 draft picks first. However, next year’s draft class offers a modicum of hope that any departing O-linemen will be replaceable.

The defensive line, another area of need for the Steelers along with the offensive line, doesn’t looked quite as stocked with Day One prospects. Players that stand out currently include DTs Fili Moala (USC), Terrence Taylor (Michigan) and Jeff Owens (Georgia), and DEs Tyson Jackson (LSU), Michael Jackson (Georgia Tech), Kyle Moore (USC), Brian Orakpo (Texas) and Lawrence Wilson (Ohio State).

However, there are a slew of underclassmen D-linemen that could make the positions much stronger if they declare, including DTs Al Woods (LSU), Demarcus Granger (Oklahoma), Sen’Derrick Marks (Auburn) and Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma), and DEs Maurice Evans (Penn State), George Selvie (South Florida), Greg Middleton (Indiana) and Greg Hardy (Mississippi).

The Steelers have starting D-linemen Casey Hampton and Brett Keisel under contract until 2010, and Aaron Smith until 2012. However, all three of these players are over 30 years old & may have passed their prime, so drafting some D-linemen to develop into starters would be a wise use of draft picks next April.

The only “news” for the Steelers in recent weeks has been the release of RB/FB Najeh Davenport and the team showing interest in oft-injured RB Kevin Jones. According to press reports, the team cut Davenport to save cap space & to keep sophomore RB Gary Russell from being signed elsewhere. The cap space argument makes more sense than the prioritization of Russell, in my humble opinion. Davenport ran for 499 yards and 5 TDs last season (including a 123-yard showing at St. Louis with one rushing TD & one receiving TD) and had 184 yards receiving with two TD catches. That is what I would call a proven backup. Davenport may never have been able to be a true blocking fullback, but he had significant versatility and decent size that could be utilized by a creative offense. Perhaps the drafting of Rashard Mendenhall made Davenport expendable, but not *more* expendable than Gary Russell, who had all of 10 carries for 23 yards and a six-yard catch last season. If Russell was going to be signed by some other team, then why couldn’t Davenport or Russell be traded instead of one of them being cut? After Davenport’s departure and the Joey Porter cutting last year, I am concerned that the Steelers may not be trying hard enough to make trades happen.

And why was Kevin Jones being courted by the Steelers? Exactly what role would he have played for the team? Where would he fit in the crowded backfield depth chart? Could he return kicks? I’m all for the team bringing in good players for a look when they become available, but after drafting Mendenhall and singing Mewelde Moore, I just don’t see a role for Jones (unless there’s something more troubling about Willie Parker’s health than has been made public.)

It seems that Steeler fans can only hope that some good, young O-line and D-line players end up on the waiver wire between now and September. Until next year’s draft, some other team’s poor judgment or cap situation may be the Steelers’ best hope in acquiring needed depth along the lines.

5/20/08

What’s On The Steelers’ “To Do” List

It’s the beginning of the long football drought that lasts until training camp (Believe me, I feel your pain.) But there are a number of things the Steelers need to accomplish before September:

· The Steelers must work on their plans for the team’s free agents after this season, which include starting LT Marvel Smith, backup LT Trai Essex, potential starting LG Chris Kemoeatu, starting ILB James Farrior, currently-overpaid backup OT/OG Max Starks, starter-caliber CB Bryant McFadden, #3 WR Nate Washington, backup RB/FB Najeh Davenport and backup QB Charlie Batch (as well as restricted free agents RT/RG Willie Colon, safety Anthony Smith and WR/KR Willie Reid.) If you’re not counting, that’s five of the offensive linemen from last season’s roster, along with a number of valued depth/role players. Since the Steelers have made a practice of not signing contract extensions during the season, they have to move in the coming months if they want to keep any of the above mentioned players long-term;

· The team has to beg & plead with Max Starks to sign a cap-friendly long-term deal. The team lost its leverage when Starks signed his transition tag, guaranteeing him almost $7 million. There’s no way he’ll sign a contract that guarantees less than that, and, given that he could play out this season & get another big contract as an unrestricted free agent next season, he doesn’t have much incentive to sign a contract that might be less than what he would get in a new contract next year. So the team had better hope he either improves so much that he’s worth a starting OT contract, or that he signs a cap-friendly deal as an act of charity. Good luck with either of those happening;

· After cutting unrestricted free agent Dorien Bryant, the team’s kick/punt returner options include Mewelde Moore, Santonio Holmes, Willie Reid, William Gay, Najeh Davenport, Jeremy Bloom, Kevin Marion and Grant Mason. Let the race begin! (And let’s hope the team thinks twice before bringing in former Pro Bowl KR Jerome Mathis (recently cut by the Redskins), whose recent brushes with the law should give the team pause);

· Yet another merry-go-round of competition will ensue for the starting offensive line positions. The only sure things right now appear to be LT Marvel Smith (when healthy) and RG Kendall Simmons. It’s safe to assume, no matter what we hear from the Steelers’ front office, that OC Justin Hartwig will be given every possible chance to win the starting job. Here’s hoping that the team doesn’t keep the merry-go-round going too long this off-season so that the eventual starters have time to gel;

· The team still needs to bolster its defensive line. I realize that it’s far too late to be whining about not drafting a defensive lineman, but it would also be foolish for the team not to keep trying to address this need. The Steelers’ starting defensive linemen are very good, but the depth was a big issue last year & could be again next season. The age of the starting linemen also is a factor, and they might be able to last longer & play better if they were in rotation with other viable starters (which they don’t have on the roster right now.) I’m guessing the team is paying close attention to the waiver wire for additional depth options. If I recall correctly, Rod Coleman and Anthony McFarland are still available;

· The team may not currently have enough cap space to sign their rookies. Creating cap-friendly contract extensions for Starks and other soon-to-be free agents mentioned above could get the team the cap space they need, so that adds extra impetus to get those extensions done;

· Will Najeh Davenport or Gary Russell make the final roster? Will Willie Reid stay off the Injured Reserve list? Will Ryan Clark return as a starting FS? Will Sean Mahan find a position at which he could actually start? Inquiring minds want to know.

5/2/08

Catch a Falling Star

There’s a lot to like about the Steelers’ draft class of 2008. There really is. For those of you who weren’t keeping track, these are the players the Steelers drafted:

1^st Round (23) � RB Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois (a huge steal!)

2^nd Round (53) � WR Limas Sweed, Texas (an even huge-er steal!)

3^rd Round (88) � OLB Bruce Davis, UCLA (prototypical pass-rushing 3-4 OLB)

4^th Round (130) � OT Tony Hills, Texas (possible future starter if healthy)

5^th Round (156) � QB Dennis Dixon, Oregon (talented QB recovering from injury)

6^th Round (188) � OLB Mike Humpal, Iowa (projects to 3-4 ILB; solid tackler)

6^th Round (194) (from Giants) � FS Ryan Mundy, West Virginia (former Michigan star)

The undrafted free agent market is still settling, but two of the higher profile UDFA pickups for the Steelers so far are OC Doug Legursky (mauling pivot prospect) and WR/KR Dorien Bryant, Purdue (could give Willie Reid something to worry about).

“Happy Happy Joy Joy” Tidbits:

- Take a look at the possible depth charts going into training camp at these positions:

RB: Parker, Mendenhall, Moore, Davenport, Russell, Vincent

WR: Ward, Holmes, Washington, Sweed, [Willie Reid/Dorien Bryant], [Dallas Baker/Micah Rucker]

OLB: J. Harrison, Woodley, Timmons(?), Davis, Frazier, A. Harrison

ILB: Farrior, Foote, Fox, Humpal

- It’s arguable that the Steelers didn’t make any reaches during this draft i.e., that they honestly picked the top players on their board every time. They chose Bruce Davis even though OLB prospects like Cliff Avril and Philip Wheeler were still available. They took a QB in the fifth round even though they have their #1 and #2 QBs already set (and have a 3^rd QB on the roster in Jared Zabransky.) Why would they do that unless he honestly was the best player left on their board? They took Ryan Mundy over Simeon Castille, Jamar Adams and D.J. Wolfe.

- We shouldn’t have to hear Big Ben complain about not having any big WRs from now on.

- Willie Parker can stay healthier splitting carries with Mendenhall, especially in short-yardage situations.

- Tony Hills, thought to be a 2^nd-3^rd round prospect just a couple weeks ago, will have at least one year to develop behind LT Marvel Smith and RTs Max Starks and Willie Colon. Given time, Hills has the talents and measurables to start at an OT position down the road.

- UDFA center Doug Legursky is a big, mauling interior lineman whom was mentioned as a strong candidate to get drafted by many draft websites. In the AFC North, where huge nose tackles abound, it’s important to have big OCs (like Legursky) that can handle bull rushes.

“Sad Sad Misery Misery” tidbits:

- They didn’t draft a defensive end, and are now stuck with the same depth chart at DE as they had last season, which proved to be quite inadequate (unless we hold out hope for undrafted free agents like Martavius Prince (Southern Miss) or Jordan Reffett (Washington), or hope that the team reconsiders veteran free agents like Rod Coleman, Larry Tripplett, and Anthony McFarland).

- They only drafted one offensive lineman, and that was in the 4^th round. And that player, much like our current starting left tackle, has an injury history. While the team took advantage of really big values at offensive skill positions, it’s not clear how the offensive line will improve its play (especially considering that the team’s best offensive linemen signed with the Jets).

- The Steelers still have a decision to make regarding Bryant McFadden. Since they didn’t draft a CB, the team doesn’t have a lot of options beyond their starters & has this offseason to decide whether McFadden gets an extension or plays out his contract and leaves in free agency (the Steelers have a policy not to negotiate contracts during the season.)

- Max Starks, who is by no means guaranteed a starting job next season, is now guaranteed almost $7 million. Negotiating a long-term contract with him will now have to include significantly more than $7 million in guaranteed money, so we may be waiting a long time before a long-term contract that helps the team reclaim needed cap space is achieved.

- The team didn’t draft a nose tackle. With Casey Hampton and Chris Hoke at the position, it may not have been a pressing need for the team this year. But it will be a need soon. Hampton and Hoke are both over 30 years old, so there’s no telling how much longer they can continue to perform at top levels. The only backup on the roster is Scott Paxson.

However, overall, this was a very good draft for the Steelers. There’s a lot to like about each of the players they selected (especially how players like Mendenhall and Sweed dropped into their laps) & how the draftees could fit into the Steelers’ future.

4/19/08

Crunch Time

The draft is so close now, you can almost smell that fresh New York City air. The Internet is filled to the brim with mock drafts, each and every one of them wrong. Everything draft-wise is taking final shape, including Mel Kiper’s hair. So what do we actually know?

Not much. And the Steelers’ War Room seems to like it that way. It’s times like these when Steeler fans become envious of fans of teams like the Lions and Raiders, teams that don’t always hold their cards as closely to their vests. Fans of teams like those get much more pre-draft news upon which to chew, while Steeler fans scrape and dig for any scrap of news that might indicate the team’s draft intentions. Sure, it probably results in better draft classes not having all the other teams know what the Steelers’ War Room is plotting, but what about our needs? ;)

But there are a few tea leaves to read. For starters, here is a (probably incomplete) list of players that the Steelers visited or whose private workouts were attended by Steelers personnel, along with a list of players whom press reports have suggested the Steelers showed “interest” in:

Visits:

Coastal Carolina WR Jerome Simpson

South Florida CB/S Mike Jenkins

Miami (FL) S Willie Cooper

Louisville WR Mario Urrutia

Mount Union WR Pierre Garcon

Eastern Kentucky CB Antwaun Molden

Indiana WR James Hardy

Virginia OG/OT Branden Albert

Oklahoma WR Malcolm Kelly

Boise State CB Orlando Scandrick

East Carolina RB Chris Johnson

Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart

UCLA FS Matt Slater

McNeese State DL Bryan Smith

Indiana CB Tracy Porter

West Virginia S Ryan Mundy

Oregon QB Dennis Dixon

Auburn DL/LB Quentin Groves

Purdue DL/LB Cliff Avril

Michigan State RB/FB Jehuu Caulcrick

Kansas FB Brandon McAnderson

Texas A&M DL Red Bryant

Boston College OT Gosder Cherilus

Tennessee LB Jerod Mayo

Michigan State LB Shawn Crable

Arizona State RB Ryan Torain

Iowa CB Charles Godfrey

Kansas CB Aqib Talib

Maryland DL Dre Moore

West Virginia DL Keilen Dykes

Hampton DL Kendall Langford

Workouts Attended:

Pittsburgh OL Mike McGlynn

Pittsburgh OT Jeff Otah

“Interest”:

Idaho FB Rolly Lumbala

NW Missouri State TE Michael Peterson

Arkansas DB Matt Hewitt

Akron CB Reggie Corner

Arizona CB Antoine Cason

From a casual glance at the list, it appears that the Steelers are pursuing an interest in drafting several particular kinds of players: defensive ends and nose tackles for the 3-4, wide receivers over 6’2” tall, offensive tackles, sizeable running backs/fullbacks (Chris Johnson excepted), and defensive backs. One probably didn’t need to see this list in order to surmise the Steelers’ interests in these positions, but the specific players on the list may say something about the team’s intended direction.

For example, there has been some speculation in the press that the team’s visit with potential first round pick CB/S Mike Jenkins may indicate an interest in moving the team’s defense to a Cover 2 base. However, it might instead say something about the team’s confidence in either the health of FS Ryan Clark, CB Bryant McFadden’s future with the team (he’s an unrestricted free agent after this season), or both.

Visits by Jonathan Stewart, Chris Johnson and Ryan Torain *could* be telling about the running backs on the roster not named Willie Parker. However, visits by short-yardage specialist Jehuu Caulcrick and FB Brandon McAnderson may indicate that the team wants an upgrade over FB Carey Davis. Exactly how many draft picks are the Steelers going to spend on running backs (if any)?

And why were OG Branden Albert and OG/OT/OC/PK/Power Forward/Tighthead Prop/Designated Hitter Mike McGlynn the only pure offensive guards that the team visited with? (I called Branden Albert a “pure offensive guard”? Shocking!) For a team that, according to so many pundits, has a desperate need for a guard after Alan Faneca’s departure, you would think there would have been more guards visiting. Hmmm.

And are the visits by potential 3-4 OLBs Quentin Groves, Shaun Crable and Cliff Avril an indication that the team wants to upgrade over Woodley or Harrison, or is it simply that they want to improve the pass rush & would find it hard to pass these guys up if they drop to the Steelers’ picks for some reason?

Thankfully, we won’t have to wait much longer to find out.

3/27/08

Trading Down: The Impossible Dream

A couple free agency tidbits before I delve into the topic of the likelihood of a trade down for the Steelers:

- Since my last article, the Steelers have added to their O-line (signing OC Justin Hartwig) and added by subtraction to their WR corps (cutting overpaid WR/woman-puncher Cedric Wilson). The Hartwig signing puts Sean Mahan’s place with the team up in the air & gives the team more flexibility in the draft. However, the team still is likely to spend either their first round pick, second round pick, or both on the offensive line, and draft at least two O-linemen this year. Cutting Wilson doesn’t change the top three WRs on the team (Ward, Holmes, Washington) and the move provides the team with ~$2 million in extra cap space, but it does create an opening for a developmental WR who could take Ward’s spot in a few years. Thus, WR has now increased in prominence as a “team need,” and a Day One pick at the position isn’t out of the question.

- There haven’t been any new reports about free agents visiting the Steelers, and the team likely is done playing the market until after the draft. However, I have a dream. Unlike the dream involving Laura Prepon, Barry White’s Greatest Hits and a case of Cool Whip, this dream involves the Steelers continuing to involve themselves in free agency. Specifically, the team *could* focus on need-position free agents that were cut from other teams, such as DTs Rod Coleman and Larry Tripplett, LB Rosevelt Colvin, CB Andre Dyson and DE/OLB Kalimba Edwards. Such players could contribute greatly to the team and would not affect the compensatory pick formula for the 2009 draft. And the team still has plenty of salary cap maneuvers it can perform if it really wants to add one of these players to the team.

But since the Steelers likely are putting most of their attention towards the draft now, perhaps this article should do the same.

Every year, you can expect several things to be the same come draft time:

- Mel Kiper’s hair will not have moved since last year’s draft;

- The word “upside” will return to the English language for about two months;

- Every team’s fans will be clamoring for their team to trade down and pick up more draft picks.

The last of these three phenomena is the one I’d like to examine in this article (I’d like to never closely examine Mel Kiper’s hair, if I can help it.) My instinctual reaction every time I hear the trade-down argument is to laugh smugly to myself. This is because trading down is much harder to accomplish that it may appear at first glance. For a trade down to occur, it takes more than one team’s willingness to move down the draft and possibly miss out on some good players in order to pick up additional picks. Every team in the league wants additional picks (well, except maybe the Redskins.) The trick for a team to trade down is to find a trading partner that wants not only to trade up, but to trade up specifically to your team’s pick. That involves a number of factors that are out of any team’s control. But this year, in my humble opinion, the Steelers may actually have a viable opportunity to trade down in this draft & I’ll explain why I think so.

For a trade down to happen for the Steelers, one must look at the teams that pick after the Steelers: The Titans, Seahawks and Jaguars (any father down than that & a team may as well trade with the Titans, Seahawks or Jaguars instead of the Steelers so they don't have to give up as much.) For a team to specifically covet the Steelers’ pick, they must want a player that is not likely to be there when they pick because said player may be targeted by the teams with picks immediately after the Steelers. For example, last year, the Jets may have believed that the Steelers were going to draft CB Darrelle Revis, so they traded with the Panthers to move ahead of the Steelers and pick Revis. It wasn’t the Panthers’ desire to trade down that made the deal happen: it was the Jets’ desire to move up.

So, are the Titans, Seahawks and/or Jaguars really likely to take a certain player, one which some other team in need might trade with the Steelers so as to move ahead of them and get the player? Just from a casual observation, the Titans and Jags look like they really need defensive linemen, so the possibility that a team could trade with the Steelers in order to get, say, Calais Campbell, Kentwan Balmer, Pat Sims or Philip Merling is a possibility. The Titans also look like they really need a WR, so if there's some team really jonesin' for James Hardy, Malcolm Kelly or DeSean Jackson, they could trade up with the Steelers. (In fact, that may be more likely than a team trading up for a D-lineman, considering the value placed on size/speed combos like James Hardy and Malcolm Kelly.) The Jags also appear to really need a safety, but there aren't really any safeties that project to be available at #23 that other teams would trade up to take. And the Seahawks are a bit of a wild card: they need a TE (but not badly enough to use a first-round pick on one) and a RB (but they just signed some free agent RBs). They also could use a DE, a LB and an o-lineman, but I don’t have a good feel for which they want/need most. So that brings us back to WR and D-linemen.

So what teams would trade up for a D-lineman or WR? In the most general terms, teams that need them the most (apart from the Titans, Seahawks and Jags & the Steelers’ division rivals) are:

WR - Bears, Bills, Bucs, Redskins

(also the Raiders, Dolphins, Jets, Eagles and Broncos)

DT - Broncos, Falcons

(also the Colts, Chargers, Lions, Panthers and Raiders)

DE - Rams, Redskins

(also the Panthers, Texans, Eagles, Bills and Bucs)

The Steelers also could conceivably use their first round pick on a DE or WR, so that adds extra leverage when trading with another team (“We were going to pick James Hardy. Oh, you say you want Hardy? Interesting…”) The next question, however, is: Which of these teams is in the best position to move up to the Steelers’ spot? Let’s start with the teams with the most urgent need for a WR or D-lineman (my apologies if I get a draft pick wrong here or there, and I’m leaving out the names of free agents signed last year just for simplicity: the compensatory pick prospects do have them included, even though I’m not listing them here):

Bears � Their 2^nd round pick is #44 & they have an extra 4^th rounder with which to work. They also may get some late-round compensatory picks for losing Justin Gage, Todd Johnson, Ian Scott and Alfonso Boone to free agency last year.

Bills � Their 2^nd round pick is #41 and they have extra picks in the 3^rd and 7^th rounds. They also may be looking at a couple compensatory picks (for losing Mike Gandy, Andre Davis, Nate Clements and London Fletcher.)

Buccaneers � Their 2^nd round pick is #52 and they are short one 6^th round pick. They aren’t likely to get a comp pick this year.

Redskins � Their 2^nd round pick is #51 and they are short a 4^th round pick. However, they lost Derrick Dockery, Kenny Wright, Warrick Holdman and T.J. Duckett to free agency last year, so they should be due some compensatory picks.

Broncos � Their 2^nd round pick is #42 and they are short a 3^rd and 6^th rounder, but have an extra pick in the 4^th and 5^th rounds. They aren’t likely to get a compensatory pick.

Falcons � Their 2^nd round pick is #37 and they have an extra 2^nd and 7^th round pick (and are slated to get another 2^nd round pick from the Raiders for DeAngelo Hall.) They aren’t likely to get a compensatory pick.

Rams � Their 2^nd round pick is #33 and they have an extra pick in the 6^th round. They aren’t likely to get a compensatory pick.

Other teams that are possibilities include the Dolphins (who have an extra 2^nd round pick & may get a comp pick), the Colts (who are due a number of comp picks & don’t currently have a 1^st round pick), the Eagles (who have an extra 5^th round pick & are due some comp picks) and the Panthers (who have an extra 3^rd round pick & are likely to get a couple comp picks.)

The Steelers might not want to trade all the way back to the 45-55 range, so that makes a trade with the Redskins, Buccaneers, Eagles or Colts unlikely. That leaves the Dolphins, Rams, Raiders, Chiefs, Falcons, Bills, Panthers and Bears as the best-situated trade partners. Of course, a few of these teams already will have used their first round pick on a D-lineman or WR, so that reduces the field a bit more. However, the only D-linemen who project earlier than #23 right now are top-10 picks Glenn Dorsey and Sedric Ellis. And there’s no telling when the first WR will be taken in this draft: Malcolm Kelly, James Hardy, DeSean Jackson, Limas Sweed, Devin Thomas and Early Doucet all have been projected in widely-varying spots and widely-varying orders in early mock drafts.

So the possibility of a trade down in the 1^st round for the Steelers this year is as reasonable as any year I can remember. That doesn’t mean it’s "likely": it would still be a challenge to pull off. But if the Bills take CB Dominique Rogers-Cromartie or Leodis McKelvin in the 1^st round, would they trade up with the Steelers to get WR James Hardy or Malcolm Jenkins? If the Falcons draft QB Matt Ryan in the 1^st round, would they trade up with the Steelers to get a defensive lineman? In most years, I chuckle when I see Internet postings that suggest the Steelers ought to trade down, considering such talk a pipe dream. This year, it seems like a viable option. Now if only I could make that Laura Prepon dream viable as well