Where It’s At (without two turntables or a microphone)

Here’s just a quick overview of where the Steelers are right now in regards to next year’s draft:

What The Steelers Currently Appear To Need From The 2010 Draft: 

O-line, Nose Tackle and Free Safety

Here is the O-line as it looks for next year pre-draft:

RT: Willie Colon (RFA in uncapped season), Ramon Foster

RG: Darnell Stapleton (RFA after this season), Trai Essex, Kraig Urbik

C: Justin Hartwig, Doug Legursky

LG: Chris Kemoeatu

LT: Max Starks, Tony Hills

That’s eight O-linemen definitely under contract for next year, with a strong likelihood that Stapleton and Colon will be retained.  So the issue isn’t numbers: it’s talent.  And while the O-line seems to have performed decently in recent weeks (Big Ben is taking an average of 2.6 sacks per week, but hasn’t taken more than 3 in the last five games & he generally has had time to throw, not to mention signs of life in the running game), there’s little doubt that this group could use a boost in talent & not simply depth.  Three sacks per game x 16 games = 48 sacks: that’s not good.  Even with the improvement in O-line play, there’s no way the team can be satisfied with an average-at-best O-line.  As a bonus, the Steelers’ tendency under Tomlin has been to let early-round draft picks develop for a year or two before starting.  Given that the Steelers have enough starting O-linemen for next season (and possibly beyond), any O-lineman drafted in 2010 will have the same chance to develop that Timmons, Mendenhall, etc. have had.

As far as the D-line is concerned, the Steelers did a good job of investing in it during the last draft, picking up DEs Ziggy Hood (who may get consideration as a NT) and Ra’Shon Harris.  Brett Keisel signed an extension this offseason & Aaron Smith is signed through 2011, plus there’s Nick Eason, so the DE spots are covered even if Travis Kirschke leaves as a free agent.  Nose tackle, however, is another matter.  Casey Hampton is a free agent after this season & Chris Hoke is a free agent after 2010, and both of them are over 30 years old.  One way or another, the Steelers will need to invest in a young NT this offseason.  Ideally, Alabama’s Terrance Cody will miraculously drop in the first round to where the Steelers can draft him, but I’m not counting on that miracle.  Other defensive tackles that may be around at the end of the first round include Marvin Austin (North Carolina), Arthur Jones (Syracuse) and Jared Odrick (Penn State), although anything could happen to their draft prospects between now and April.  In addition, none of these three currently is the space-eating NT that Cody could be, so it may take time for these three if they are chosen by a team with a 3-4 defense to find their best position.

The third priority, it seems will be to get a stud free safety.  Polamalu is a sure-fire Pro Bowler when he’s healthy, but he hasn’t been reliably healthy.  Ryan Clark has done a great job replacing Chris Hope, but both he and Tyrone Carter will be free agents.  There was much discussion in the press about signing Clark to an extension, but that did not materialize by the start of the season (and the Steelers don’t negotiate contracts during the season.)  I have read that the Steelers’ coaches and/or front office are enamored with Ryan Mundy.  However, what I haven’t read is that the Steelers are considering starting him at any point this year.  It’s possible Clark will be resigned & that he will stay healthy for the foreseeable future.  Even if that does happen, the Steelers will have a roster spot open if Carter is not resigned & they really could use the “next big thing” playing alongside Polamalu (and spelling him, when necessary.)

What the Steelers Currently Don’t Appear To Need From The 2010 Draft:

Defensive End, Tight End and Quarterback

Regarding defensive ends, see above.  With Aaron Smith, Brett Keisel, Ziggy Hood and Ra’Shon Harris, the team is in good shape.

The tight end position is deep as well.  Heath Miller just signed a big extension, Matt Spaeth will be a restricted free agent that can be brought back affordably, and rookie David Johnson has shown a lot of promise.

At QB, the Steelers have their starter in Roethlisberger and their developmental #2 QB in Dennis Dixon.  Charlie Batch is a free agent, but he may resign depending on how he feels.  If he doesn’t resign, the Steelers will be looking for an experienced veteran for the depth chart, not a rookie.  If a real stud QB drops for some reason into the late rounds, the Steelers may take a flyer on him.  Otherwise, free agency is where the Steelers will meet their QB needs.

What The Steelers Currently Could Use But Don’t Need From The 2010 Draft:

Wide Receiver, Inside and Outside Linebackers, Cornerback and Running Back

At wide receiver, the Steelers are set through at least 2011 with Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Mike Wallace.  Limas Sweed won’t be a free agent until 2012, but he might not even last that long with the team (i.e., he might get traded or even cut.)  Shaun McDonald might get brought back as a free agent if both sides wish it to be the #4 WR.  There’s also Tyler Grisham on the practice squad.  However, I could see the Steelers using a mid-to-late round pick on a tall WR that can develop as a possession/blocking WR.  After all, Hines Ward won’t be around forever.

At the linebacker positions, the Steelers have their top three set through at least 2011: James Harrison, Lamarr Woodley and Andre Frazier on the outside, and Lawrence Timmons, James Farrior and Keyaron Fox on the inside.  Donovan Woods currently is on the practice squad & many thought he was going to make the roster, so consider him in the mix.  That leaves one spot for the next developmental LB.

At cornerback, Ike Taylor is a starter through at least 2011, and rookies Keenan Lewis and Joe Burnett are signed through 2012.  William Gay will be a restricted free agent & Deshea Townsend (whom some thought might move to free safety) is an unrestricted free agent after this year.  I anticipate that at least one of these two (probably Gay), if not both, will be brought back next season.  However, if Townsend doesn’t come back, there’s a #3 CB spot that’s up for grabs & it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Steelers draft a CB to compete for that spot.  However, they may decide to plug in a free agent like Keiwan Ratliff instead.

At running back, it’s quite possible that Willie Parker is not resigned.  If that is the case, Rashard Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore would be the top two running backs.  Isaac Redman, who already has made the jump to the roster once, currently is on the practice squad, but he’ll be very much in the running for a roster spot next year.  Frank “The Tank” Summers hopefully will return better than ever from IR to compete as well.  However, if running backs like Tim Hightower and Javon Ringer can be had in the 5^th round, it may be possible that the Steelers bring in a running back of that caliber late in the draft.  It’s also possible that the team looks for ways to include KR/PR Stefan Logan into the running game.

Summary:

If the Steelers do not draft players at two out of their three need positions (O-line, nose tackle and free safety) with their first three picks, I will be a sad panda.

Do You Believe In Miracles?

When I read that Max Starks signed a four-year contract extension that saved the Steelers roughly $3 million in cap space for the 2009 season, I clearly heard the voice of Al Michaels in my head, shouting, “Do you believe in miracles?”  An extension that was supposedly impossible for a myriad of reasons suddenly happened.  Starks gets $10 mill. in guaranteed money (not much more than the $8.45 mill. he was guaranteed under the franchise tag) and four years of not having to look through real estate listings in other cities.  The Steelers, however, get some stability at one OT position as well as a new total of roughly $8 mill. in cap space, which is more than enough to sign all the rookies (only DT Ziggy Hood remains unsigned after OG Kraig Urbik signed a three-year deal on June 29) as well as the possibility of extending another priority free agent or two and/or signing a decent free agent, if needed.

I note that Willie Colon and Heath Miller would be restricted free agents next year rather than unrestricted if the league does not approve a new collective bargaining agreement.  Consequently, the team may decide to work on extensions for those players after they deal with other impending free agents such as FS Ryan Clark, NT Casey Hampton, kicker Jeff Reed, DE Brett Keisel, RB Willie Parker and/or OC Justin Hartwig.  Or perhaps Miller and Colon would agree to more affordable contract extensions so as to avoid restricted free agency: I guess we’ll see.

Here’s an updated version of the current Steelers roster after recent cuts.  Again, veteran players in normal font, players that will be 30+ years old underlined, draft picks in bold, undrafted free agents and camp players in italics:

QB: Roethlisberger, Batch, Dixon, Reilly

RB: Parker, Mendenhall, Moore, Redman, Vincent, Logan

FB: Davis, Summers

WR: Ward, Sweed, Baker, Nance, Black

WR: Holmes, McDonald, Wallace, Williams, Grisham

TE: Miller, Spaeth, McHugh, Sherrod, Johnson

RT: Colon, Foster

RG: Stapleton, Essex, Urbik

OC: Hartwig, Legursky, Shipley

LG: Kemoeatu, Parquet

LT: Starks, Hills, Capizzi

DE: Smith, Kirschke, Harris, Reffett

NT: Hampton, Hoke, Paxson

DE: Keisel, Eason, Hood, McLendon

OLB: J. Harrison, Frazier, Woods

ILB: Timmons, Foote, Korte

ILB: Farrior, Fox, Schantz

OLB: Woodley, Davis, Bailey, A. Harrison

CB: Taylor, Ratliff, Madison, (Keenan) Lewis

CB: Gay, Townsend, Burnett, (Roy) Lewis

FS: Clark, Mundy, Richardson

SS: Polamalu, Carter

K: Reed, Czech

P: Sepulveda

LS: Warren

Given this depth chart, Heath Miller, Casey Hampton and Ryan Clark look the least replaceable, followed by Jeff Reed (a consistent kicker in a tough stadium, but not an irreplaceable, “elite” kicker in the league.)  On the TE depth chart, Spaeth is still developing and McHugh is nowhere near the receiving threat that Miller is.  Behind Hampton are some decent fill-ins in Hoke and Paxson, but the team would surely miss a top-tier NT like Hampton should they not have his services after this season (even with his recurring weight issues and advancing age.)  Behind Ryan Clark is Ryan Mundy, a late-round draft pick from last year who has receiving strong reviews from Steelers coaches but is not yet the player that Clark is (when Clark is healthy).  While the Steelers have spent draft picks at the TE position in recent years, nose tackle and free safety have been somewhat neglected positions the last couple of years.  As such, the Steelers may not have a lot of choice when it comes to signing Hampton and Clark to extensions if they want to keep the current Super Bowl window open beyond this upcoming season.  But the extra cap space from the allegedly-impossible Starks signing likely will take care of at least one of these players.  Now, more than ever, I believe in miracles.

An Offseason To Remember

The draft is done, yet the Steelers may have made their biggest improvement shortly afterward in signing WR Shaun McDonald and CB Keiwan Ratliff.  Both players provide veteran depth to replace the departed Nate Washington and Bryant McFadden.  Washington and McFadden may be more fully replaced by draft picks WR Mike Wallace and CB Keenan Lewis, but having Ratliff and McDonald around will give the rookies a little time to develop. 

In a previous article, I bemoaned the youth of the receiving corps.  McDonald adds seven years of experience in the league as well as another kick returner option to the roster.  He could step in as a #3 WR until one of the youngsters steps up.  Ratliff also adds experience behind Taylor, Gay and Townsend (who may end up playing safety) where little experience was present.

Here is an overview of the roster heading into the summer (with veteran players listed ahead of rookies until a change is warranted.)  Veteran players in normal font, players that will be 30+ years old underlined, draft picks in bold: undrafted free agents and camp players in italics:

QB: Roethlisberger, Batch, Dixon, Reilly, McCabe

RB: Parker, Mendenhall, Moore, Redman, Vincent, Logan

FB: Davis, Summers

WR: Ward, Sweed, Baker, Nance, Black, Goodman

WR: Holmes, McDonald, Wallace, Williams, Grisham, Foster

TE: Miller, Spaeth, McHugh, Sherrod, Johnson

RT: Colon, Foster

RG: Stapleton, Urbik

OC: Hartwig, Legursky, Shipley

LG: Kemoeatu, Parquet

LT: Starks, Hills, Capizzi

DE: Smith, Kirshke, Harris, Reffett

NT: Hampton, Hoke, Paxson

DE: Keisel, Eason, Hood, McLendon, Bradley

OLB: Harrison, Frazier, Woods

ILB: Timmons, Foote, Korte

ILB: Farrior, Fox, Schantz

OLB: Woodley, Davis, Bailey, A. Harrison

CB: Taylor, Ratliff, Madison, Lewis

CB: Gay, Townsend, Bryant, Burnett

FS: Clark, Mundy, Richardson

SS: Polamalu, Carter

K: Reed, Czech

P: Sepulveda, Johnson

LS: Warren, Estermeyer

While all the starters from last season are pretty much going to be the starters next season (longshot possibility that Urbik beats out Stapleton at RG), here are some interesting battles for roster spots that could play important roles in the long-term future of the team:

-         Who will return punts and kicks?  It is in the best interest of the team not to have starting WR Santonio Holmes returning punts if at all possible.  Shaun McDonald and/or Mewelde Moore can handle punt return duties until draft pick Joe Burnett is ready.  For kickoff returns, Mike Wallace likely is the KR of the future.  Two others whose best chance to make the team lie in their KR abilities: Stefan Logan was a speedy RB for the BC Lions last season & Jayson Foster has returned to the Steelers’ roster after a brief stint on the practice squad last year.  Long story short, it should warm the hearts of Steelers fans to know that, one way or another, a fullback will not be returning kicks for the team next season;

-         After J. Harrison, Woodley and Davis, there’s an open OLB spot.  It will be interesting to see which of the OLB options makes the strongest case for a roster spot;

-         OT Ramon Foster and QB Mike Reilly are the two most highly-touted undrafted free agents among the Steelers’ UDFA acquisitions this year.  Considering the team’s past success with UDFAs, it will be interesting to see how each of them does & to speculate what must happen (directly or indirectly) for either of them to make the roster;

-         CBs Fernando Bryant and Keiwan Ratliff provide experienced depth to the secondary, but will be battling draft picks Keenan Lewis and Joe Burnett for roster spots.  It seems likely that either Bryant or Ratliff won’t be on the final roster.  And is Anthony Madison automatically the odd man out, or can he beat out the players mentioned above?

-         Can either DT Evander Hood or Ra’Shonn Harris play nose tackle in a 3-4 defense?  Or defensive end, for that matter?

-         Will either Kraig Urbik or Ramon Foster be looked at as a possible right tackle?  It is not clear what the RT depth behind Willie Colon is right now.

-         Can draft pick TE David Johnson beat out Sean McHugh to be the #3 TE/blocking TE (which likely would save the team a little money and cap space)?

-         Will RB/FB Frank Summers bump RB/FB/TE Carey Davis off the roster, or will both of them have roles for this team?

As far as an overall draft grade, I’d give this class a sold “B”.  The group has talent, speed, strength, no reported major character or work ethic problems, and manages to cover the team’s most pressing needs rather well.  There isn’t a pick in this draft class that stands out as a bad one (although obviously that assessment may change over time.)  The annual debate regarding “picking for need vs. picking the best available players” is somewhat moot here since the team didn’t make any major reaches (i.e., the team chose the players at around where most pundits had them generally going in the draft) & still managed to bring in players at positions of perceived need (talent on offense & youth on defense).  Just looking at the above pseudo-depth chart (not created with any inside information about where the team has each player ranked), I think most Steeler fans should feel pretty confident that the final roster is going to be very solid.

I could nitpick and complain that the Steelers chose DE Evander Hood over OT Eben Britton and NT Ron Brace in the 1^st Round, or that the team didn’t pick CB Kevin Barnes or Asher Allen, WRs Derrick Williams or Mike Thomas, NTs Vaughn Martin or Sammie Lee Hill, or OTs Troy Kropog or Xavier Fulton in the 3^rd Round.  But had any of the Steelers’ pick been different, it would have caused dominoes to fall differently throughout the draft, so it is pointless to speculate what could have been.  The players the Steelers obtained in this draft look very good on paper (especially for picking so late in every round), and that’s all anyone could ask for in May 2009.

Getting Better With Age

Most teams in the NFL seemingly strive to get younger every offseason, cutting older veterans and stuffing their depth charts with youngsters.  There are obvious advantages, both short-term and long-term, for doing this: development of future starters, lower salaries, less wear and tear & less chance of injuries, etc.  But is it ever advantageous for a team to try to increase their age at a position?

Take the Steelers’ receiving corps.  Here are the wide receivers and tight ends along with their ages for the upcoming season (with two ages given if their birthdays occur during the season & starters in bold) and their games played/games started (to the best of my knowledge):

WR Hines Ward – 33 – 184 GP/165 GS

TE Sean McHugh – 27 – 36 GP/14 GS

TE Heath Miller – 26/27 – 72 GP/71 GS

WR Dallas Baker – 26/27 – 8 GP /0 GS

WR Martin Nance – 26 – 1 GP/0 GS

WR Brandon Williams – 25 – 23 GP/0 GS(?)

WR Santonio Holmes – 25 – 48 GP/36 GS

TE Matt Spaeth – 24/25 – 30 GP/5 GS

WR Limas Sweed – 24/25 – 11 GP (?)/0 GS

TE Dezmond Sherrod – 24 – 0 GP/0 GS

While the Steelers’ defensive line sorely needs an infusion of youth, it appears the receiving corps could use an infusion of experience.  With the loss of soon-to-be-26-years-old Nate Washington in free agency, the only WR the Steelers have over the age of 25 with any starting experience is 33-year-old Hines Ward.  Behind Ward, Miller, Holmes and McHugh, there’s a lot of question marks in this receiving corps.

It has been suggested by “experts” that wide receivers tend to bloom (if they ever bloom) in their third years in the league.  If that’s the case, this may be the year that Dallas Baker makes a significant improvement (Martin Nance was a UDFA that year as well), but the Steelers may have to give Limas Sweed and Matt Spaeth another year to develop.  Santonio Holmes and Brandon Williams were both drafted in 2006, so while they are both young, we *may* get a sense of their respective ceilings by the end of this season.  But it seems like the Steelers are dealing with a very young receiving corps & all the uncertainty that goes with it.

The defensive line has the opposite problem: too much age.  The draft offers a simple solution for that: a chance to bring in younger players to develop as depth players and/or future starters.  But trying to add age to the receiving corps would involve either signing a free agent (which seemingly is never the Steelers’ first choice) or trading with another team (which doesn’t happen a whole lot in the NFL.) 

Traditionally, the Steelers have been a team that has built through the draft, but the team also has made free agent signings that have made significant impacts on the team over the years.  Just last year, the under-the-radar signings of RB Mewelde Moore, OC Justin Hartwig and LB Keyaron Fox played important roles in getting the Steelers to a Super Bowl victory.  With improved depth in the backfield, better OC play and much better kick coverage, the Steelers were able to significantly address obvious shortcomings & position themselves for a title run.  If the Steelers can manage to bring in just one more experienced WR, possibly one that can return kicks, the passing game will look a lot more potent going into training camp & one more hole will be patched.

In this particular case, maybe the draft isn’t the answer.  Bringing in another WR that will take 2-3 years to develop may not be the best option for the Steelers, especially when their window for winning the Super Bowl is open right now.