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Running Backs from the 1995
- 2005 Drafts
By: Alex Khvatov
4/10/08
Scouts and general managers
always talk about how difficult it is to evaluate college
quarterbacks. But it is just as tough to evaluate college running
backs and project them on to the next level. Teams have different
philosophies when it comes to selecting running backs in the draft.
Some teams don't hesitate at all when it comes to drafting a RB in
the first round. If they are in need of a RB or if they feel that
he is the best available player on the board, they will snatch him
up in a second. The Chargers hit a homerun with LT. The Vikings
were extremely happy to see Adrian Peterson slide to them last
year. However there are some teams that purposely stay away from
running backs in the first round. They realize that a shelf life of
an average RB in the NFL is about four to five years. They don't
want to invest a lot of money on a player that might not even finish
his original rookie contract. Those teams feel that they can find a
starting back in the later rounds of the draft. Terrell Davis and
Curtis Martin turned out to be major steals. This 2008 RB class has
a lot of depth and quality at the top. The purpose of this column
is to find out how risky it actually is to select a RB in the first
round.
Notable RB's
taken after the first round:
Curtis Martin
(Pittsburgh) and Terrell Davis (Georgia)
Eddie
George (Ohio State) - He won the Heisman Trophy his senior
season. Yet he saw Lawrence Phillips and Tim Biakabutuka chosen
before him in the 1996 draft. The Houston Oilers (now Tennessee
Titans) were happy to select him with the 14th pick that
year. George gained 10,441 rushing yards and scored 68 touchdowns
over his nine year career.
Notable RB's
taken after the first round:
Warrick
Dunn (Florida State) - He is one of the most underrated backs in
the NFL. Dunn never gets the credit that he deserves. He has
gained over 10,000 rushing yards over his career. He had five
seasons where he gained more than 1,000 yards rushing. He is also a
terrific receiver out of the backfield.
Antowain
Smith (Houston) - If the Bills could do it over again, they
would definitely choose Tiki Barber or Corey Dillon over Smith in
the 1997 draft. But Antowain Smith actually went on to have a
productive career in the NFL. He gained nearly 7,000 rushing yards
and scored 54 touchdowns. He also was a two-time Super Bowl winner
with the Patriots.
Notable RB's
taken after the first round:
Tiki Barber
(Virginia), Corey Dillon (Washington) and Duce Staley (South
Carolina)
Fred Taylor
(Florida) - It took Taylor 10 years to finally get to the Pro
Bowl this year. He is another player that doesn't quite get the
respect that he deserves. He is a back that has been bothered by
various injuries throughout his career. But he has rushed for
10,715 yards in that 10-year period. If he gains another 2,000
yards, he is a shoe in for the Hall of Fame.
Notable RB's
taken after the first round:
Ahman Green
(Nebraska) and Michael Pittman (Fresno State)
Edgerrin
James (Miami, FL) - When Bill Polian chose James over Williams
with the fourth overall pick, there was an uproar in Indianapolis.
Polian was right of course. Edge has been one of the best backs in
the league. He has gained 11,607 rushing yards over his career so
far. He is also one of the better receivers out of the backfield.
Edge will be in the Hall of Fame one day.
Ricky
Williams (Texas) - Ricky won the Heisman Trophy in 1998. Then
Mike Ditka gave up all of his draft picks to select Williams fifth
overall. He was a productive back in New Orleans, but he couldn't
save a struggling franchise. He was traded to the Dolphins where he
had a couple of terrific seasons. Williams could have been so much
more. But he just couldn't say no to drugs.
Notable RB's
taken after the first round:
Jamal Lewis
(Tennessee) - Lewis has totaled 9,105 rushing yards over his
career. He has had six 1,000 yard seasons. He won the Super Bowl
with the Ravens during his rookie season. Last year, he signed with
the Browns and proved that he still had something left in the tank.
Thomas
Jones (Virginia) - He was lost in obscurity when he was a part
of the Arizona Cardinals. He was quickly labeled a bust. But he
resurrected his career with the Chicago Bears. He has had three
straight 1,000 yard seasons.
Shaun
Alexander (Alabama) - He seems to be on the decline of his
career. But he has been an absolute workhorse for the Seahawks
during the last eight seasons. He won the MVP award in 2005 when he
gained 1,880 yards and scored 27 touchdowns. I am sure that the
Giants have regretted passing up on Alexander and selecting Ron
Dayne instead.
Notable RB's
taken after the first round:
Reuben
Droughns (Oregon) and Mike Anderson (Utah)
LaDainian
Tomlinson (TCU) - LT is the best running back in football. He
is the face of the Chargers franchise. In his seven year career, he
has amassed over 14,000 total yards and has scored 115 touchdowns.
He has a very good chance of breaking the all-time rushing record
held by Emmitt Smith.
Deuce
McAllister (Mississippi) - Deuce has been plagued by injuries
over his career. But he still has nearly 6,000 rushing yards on his
resume. He had four seasons with over 1,000 rushing yards. The
Saints struggled last year when he went down with an injury.
Notable RB's
taken after the first round:
Anthony Thomas
(Michigan), Travis Henry (Tennessee) and Rudi Johnson (Auburn)
Notable RB's
taken after the first round:
Clinton Portis
(Miami, FL), Ladell Betts (Iowa), Brian Westbrook (Villanova) and
Willis
McGahee (Miami, FL) - I will never forget the horrific injury
that McGahee suffered during the 2003 Championship Game at Miami.
He was still drafted in the first round by the Bills. He has gained
over 1,000 yards in three of his four seasons.
Larry
Johnson (Penn State) - Johnson had a terrific senior campaign at
Penn State. Yet there were some teams that were scared to draft him
because he was from Penn State. He proved to be the steal for the
Chiefs at the end of the first round. He has played with the chip
on his shoulder throughout his career in the NFL. He was stuck
behind Priest Holmes early in his career, but then he got his chance
and certainly didn't disappoint.
Notable RB's
taken after the first round:
Steven
Jackson (Oregon State) - I couldn't believe my eyes when the
Dallas Cowboys decided to trade the 22nd pick when
Jackson was sitting on the board. The Rams traded up and found
themselves a replacement for Marshall Faulk. He is one of the best
young backs in the league. He has rushed for over 1,000 yards in
three straight seasons.
Notable RB's
taken after the first round:
Julius Jones
(Notre Dame) and Michael Turner (Northern Illinois)
Ronnie
Brown (Auburn) - Brown was coming into his own and it looked
like he was going to have his best season to date before he tore his
ACL midway through last season. He should make a full recovery and
turn into the featured back for Parcells and the Dolphins. His best
years are ahead of him.
Notable RB's
taken after the first round:
Frank Gore
(Miami, FL), Marion Barber (Minnesota) and Brandon Jacobs (Southern
Illinois)
Ki-Jana
Carter (Penn State) - This former first overall pick in 1995
tore his ACL in the first preseason game for the Bengals. He was
just never the same player after that injury. He struggled to stay
on the field because he was bothered by various injuries over his
career.
Tyrone
Wheatley (Michigan) - Wheatley rushed for almost 5,000 yards
over his 10 years in the league, but he was never able to live up to
his high draft status. When the Giants chose him in the first round
of the draft, they were hoping that he will turn out to be the
featured back. That never materialized until he went to the Raiders
where he was able to record his first and only 1,000 yard season.
Napoleon
Kaufman (Washington) - He had his best season in 1997 when he
gained 1,294 yards. At best, he was an average back. He split
carries over the course of his six-year career. When a team drafts
a RB in the first round, it expects him to turn into the featured
back. Kaufman never became the primary RB for the Raiders.
James
Stewart (Tennessee) - A player that had a bust label written all
over him when he was with the Jaguars. Then he got a fresh new
start with the Lions. In two of his three seasons in Detroit, he
gained over 1,000 rushing yards. Stewart never became a star, but
he turned into a pretty good back in Detroit. He had a much better
career than some of the other running backs chosen that year. But I
still can't put him in the hits category.
Rashaan
Salaam (Colorado) - He rushed for over 2,000 yards in his final
season at Colorado. He won the Heisman Trophy that year in 1994.
He gained over 1,000 yards his rookie season. His career turned out
to be a very brief one. Salaam had trouble staying healthy, had
fumbling problems and had some off-the-field issues.
Lawrence
Phillips (Nebraska) - He had all of the talent in the world.
Yet he couldn't stay out of trouble. Phillips spent three
forgettable seasons in the NFL. Soon after that teams began to
spend more time digging into players' backgrounds.
Tim
Biakabutuka (Michigan) - He had the ability to hit a home run at
any given time. But in his six seasons with the Panthers, he never
gained more than 700 rushing yards in a season. He couldn't stay
healthy and had a problem with fumbles. A serious knee injury
forced him to retire early from the NFL.
Curtis Enis
(Penn State) - Enis was selected fifth overall in the 1998
draft. In three seasons with the Bears, he couldn't even surpass
the 1,500 yard plateau. He was unable to change the perception that
has formed around NFL circles that Penn State running backs develop
into mediocre pros.
Robert
Edwards (Georgia) - It looked like Edwards was going to have a
bright future in the league. He ran for 1,115 yards and nine
touchdowns as a rookie. Then he tore up his knee in the flag
football exhibition game in the off-season. It took him three years
to finally make a comeback. He was never even close to being the
same player that he once was.
John Avery
(Mississippi) - Jimmy Johnson desperately wanted to find an
Emmitt Smith clone for the Dolphins. He reached for Avery at the
end of the first round. Johnson was hoping that he would become his
answer at running back. It never happened. Avery was out of the
league in a couple of seasons.
Ron Dayne
(Wisconsin) - This former Badger won the Heisman Trophy in 1999,
and the Giants selected him with the 11th pick in the
draft. It is safe to call him a bust. He never developed into the
featured back that the Giants were hoping for. Dayne has bounced
around and is with his third team now.
Trung
Canidate (Arizona State) - The Rams selected Canidate at the end
of the first round and it was considered a reach at the time. He
was supposed to be a future replacement for Marshall Faulk. He
never developed into that explosive playmaker that the Rams were
counting on. He was out of the league in 2003.
Michael
Bennett (Wisconsin) - Another Big 10 back that has struggled to
make the transition to the NFL. He had only one 1,000 yard season
in 2002 with the Vikings. He has turned into a change-of-pace back
in the league.
William
Green (Boston College) - Green spent four seasons with the
Browns. He had a career rushing average of 3.7 and never had more
than 900 rushing yards in any one single season. He had numerous
off-the-field issues and has been out of the league since 2005
season.
T.J.
Duckett (Michigan State) - Duckett has been a disappointment in
the NFL. He never had more than 800 rushing yards in a season. He
has become a pretty good backup in the league who specializes in
short-yardage situations.
Chris Perry
(Michigan) - He had a coming out party his senior season at
Michigan. The Bengals chose him in the first round and he has been
a major disappointment for the team. He can't seem to stay healthy
and has even struggled to turn into a reliable backup.
Kevin Jones
(Virginia Tech) - Jones still has a lot to prove. For now I
have to put him in the miss category. He had his best season as a
rookie when rushed for over 1,000 yards. In college, he had a
problem with injuries and that reputation has preceded him at the
next level. He was cut by the Lions in the off-season and he is
currently looking for a job. He has the talent, but he needs to
prove that he can stay healthy.
Cedric
Benson (Texas) - The Bears have had a run of bad luck with
running backs that they have chosen in the first round. They have
to change their draft strategy. Chicago traded Thomas Jones to the
Jets and finally handed the reins to Benson. He was disappointing
in his first season as the starter. He doesn't look to be the long
term solution at running back. He didn't look decisive when he hit
that hole last year, and his attitude has been questioned by
teammates.
Cadillac
Williams (Auburn) - Williams won Offensive Rookie of the Year in
2005. Since then he has been unable to duplicate those same types
of numbers. Cadillac has a punishing running style and he is
exposed to taking too many hits. He suffered a season ending injury
last year. I don't think he will ever revert back to his rookie
season. I am putting him in the miss category.
Conclusion: It
is very risky choosing a running back in the first round. Only 15
out of 34 running backs chosen in the first round between 1995-2005
have had success. That is only a 40% success rate. Talented
players like Kevin Jones and Cadillac Williams have all of the
talent in the world, but they just can't stay on the field. A
running back takes too many hits and doesn't have a long shelf life
in the NFL. Every year teams find quality running backs after the
first round and that is the strategy that most teams should employ.
Interesting fact is that SEC running backs have found great success
in the league. You hear that sentence a lot: you can't teach
speed. SEC backs face fast defenses week in and week out. This
bodes well for Darren McFadden. On the other hand, most Big 10 RB's
have struggled to develop into quality backs in the NFL. Don't be
so quick to jump on the Rashard Mendenhall bandwagon after he only
shined for one year at Illinois. History has a tendency to repeat
itself.
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