| To QB or Not to QB? | |
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Updated - 12-5-11 By: Dave Savolaine |
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The phrase "Andrew Luck Sweepstakes" has become so
overused that other sports will be using it
come Summer 2012 (can Luck play hockey or
basketball?), and mock drafts these days regularly
have 5-7 quarterbacks being taken in the first
round. Will the 2012 Draft see more QBs taken in
the first than last year (four)? Or 1999 (five)?
Or 1983 (six)?
As you know, the number of players at any position
taken in the first round is affected by the "supply"
side (i.e., the number of first-round-caliber
players) and the "demand" side (the number of teams
needing a starter at that position.) At this early
stage, it's almost foolhardy to make claims about
the "supply" considering how much can change between
now and April regarding draft grades for players.
However, while game tapes, bowl games and workouts
will do much to help us banter about which QBs are
worth a first-round pick, we already have plenty of
data on the "demand" side with which to blather and
debate on the subject. So here's my humble take on
which teams are in the most need for one of those
first-round-caliber QBs & which teams are not in
that picture (right now):
Teams that need to consider
drafting a franchise QB:
NY Jets - Sanchez is on a hot seat, so they need a Plan B Cleve. - McCoy is on a similar hot seat & Plan B right now is Seneca Wallace Miami - Upgrade possibility here is obvious Wash. - Upgrade possibility also obvious here Sea. - Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst are not solidifying a hold on the starting QB job, so upgrade possible Den. - They've left themselves no alternatives to Tebow & that doesn't seem likely to remain the case by next April Ind. - Manning or no Manning, the need for a future starting QB is near
Teams that do NOT need to
draft a QB in the early rounds:
Oak. - Between Palmer, Pryor and Campbell, they can find a #1 and #2 QB Balt. - They might take a vet #2 QB, but not draft one SF - They're set with Smith an Kaepernick Tenn. - They're set with Hasselbeck and Locker KC - White Cassel and Orton try to get their respective 2010 grooves back, they might take a late flyer on a developmental QB NE - They're set with Brady and Mallett Jac. - Between Gabbert, LeFevour and L. McCown, they can get by while they give Gabbert more time Phi. - While Vick and Young both have question marks they're both legit starters Det. - Stafford has Stanton and Hill backing him up Atl. - Redman makes a decent backup to Ryan, although they could take a late-round QB Car. - They're set unless they trade Clausen & then they'll probably prefer a vet backup QB along with Anderson
Teams that DO need a #2 QB
(either through draft or free agency):
Pitt. - Big Ben rarely plays all 16 games in a season, Charlie Batch is ancient (by football standards), and Bryon Leftwich and Dennis Dixon have voiced interest in starting jobs elsewhere, so they may take a flyer on a QB in the mid-to-late rounds. Buff. - They need insurance behind Fitzpatrick, not necessarily competition for the #1 job Cinci. - They need insurance behind Dalton SD - They need insurance in case Rivers does not return to previous form Hou. - Panic signing of Delhomme indicates lack of #2 QB NY Giants - I still like Carr, but he's all there is behind Manning Dal. - While calls for Romo's head are premature IMHO, Kitna can't be the #2 QB forever Ari. - Kolb's backups have not inspired confidence this season StL. - They need a vet backup to Bradford to compete with Feeley Chi. - The team may believe in Hanie as Butler's backup, but I don't share their confidence GB - Matt Flynn has done okay as Rogers' backup, but they need competition for him Minn. - McNabb won't be Ponder's backup next year NO - I like Daniel Chase, but he can't be the only backup for Brees TB - Assuming they believe in Freeman as a starter, Josh Johnson is their only safety net
From the looks of it, there's enough demand for QBs
out there to warrant predictions of a record-year QB
haul in the first round. We'll see if the QBs in
the draft live up to the current hype (at least long
enough to get drafted!)
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