New England Patriots Column

By: Stephen St. Cyr

8/13/09

A New Beginning

We are just a few weeks away from the start of the 2009-10 NFL season. There are a lot of uncertainties heading into the young season. The big question is whether or not the Patriots are able to return to the level of play exhibited in the 2007-08 season? Does the return of Tom Brady make an 11-5 team last year into a 12-4 team this year? 13-3? Higher? Will he be as effective as he has been in the past? Will the starting offense and aging defense be able to remain healthy? Has a young inexperienced secondary become stronger? For each of these major issues heading into the season, only time will tell.

What can be expected from the Patriots this season? Football fans can expect what they have come to enjoy every year from Bill Belichick and the Patriots: championship contention. The Patriots have an amazing ability to move the ball under any set of circumstances, a quality that begins with their offensive line. Three of the five starting linemen have Pro Bowl appearances and all together create an invaluable form of pass and run protection. Pro Bowl quarterback, Tom Brady returns this year after tearing his ACL in the Patriot’s season opener last year. Brady’s leadership and playmaking ability rival any other elite quarterback in the NFL today. Expect the Patriots passing game to really spread out opposing defensives, as they have both deep and short threats in the air. The Patriots rushing attack goes relatively unnoticed from year to year due to a revolving door policy on running backs, however, the Patriots managed 6^th in the NFL in 2008. With the addition of Fred Taylor, look for them to have a constant threat both in the air and on the ground.

The Patriots have had a solid defense since the turn of the century and expect this year to be no different. The defensive line has the uncanny ability to collapse the pocket from the end position, while keeping rushing attacks up the middle at bay. Each of the Patriot linebackers has three things in common: quickness, versatility, and intelligence. Belichick has shown the NFL that a linebacker core with these qualities provides the foundation of any team defense. Though the secondary needed some help last year, as it was young and fairly inexperienced, the Patriots did finish 11^th in the NFL last year against the passing attack. With the addition of Leigh Bodden and veteran Shawn Springs, expect them to build on the solid performance last season.

1/28/09

Frustration

After a turbulent season, an unlikely finish, and a devastating end, there is not a whole lot to be happy about. The week 17 win capped an 11-5 season, which, under normal circumstances, would have resulted in a playoff berth. Instead, the Patriots playoff chances were thwarted by Miami's win over the Jets in a different AFC East divisional game. Perhaps the most annoying point in fact is that this is the second time our playoff entry has been determined by a game between Brett Favre and Chad Pennington. The last time the Patriots did not make the playoffs (2002), Favre and the Packers lost to Pennington and the Jets. Of course, that season, the Patriots were 8-8 and probably did not deserve the playoffs anyway. Only four times in NFL history has a team not made the playoffs with an 11-5 record, this being the first under the four team division setting.

There are, however, some highlights to the season. Cassel has certainly developed in an amazingly short period of time, which has almost guaranteed him a starting quarterback offer somewhere around the NFL next season. The Patriots as a team struggled with a staggering number of starting cast injuries all season, but still managed an otherwise playoff caliber season. There is a sense in Patriots Nation that this was a season to see what the team could do without the star quarterback that arose out of team play. The Patriots, known just a few years ago, for their team play and ability to win without individual stars, have watched Tom Brady deservingly become the leader and focal point of the team. The question remained, "Who are the Patriots without Tom Brady?" The answer is: a Team. Though they missed the playoffs, the Patriots proved they can compete at a high level, despite injuries to very key players.

Now we shall sit and watch the Super Bowl, reminding ourselves of two things. First, for what it is worth now, we beat the NFC Champion Cardinals 47-7. Second, we must remind ourselves that we are fans of football first and the Patriots second.

12/20/08

Playoff Crunch

After weeks 13, 14, and 15, Pats fans everywhere find themselves on the edge of their seats as they watch their beloved Patriots enter the final two game stretch in the midst of an AFC East three-way tie. The Patriots have maintained a close second or third position in the division for essentially the entire season, having traded wins for losses every other week for quite sometime. The New York Jets, currently in first via the tie breaker, won 5 straight before dropping the two of the last three games. Astonishingly, the Dolphins seem to be having the most success lately having won 7 of their last 8. There is a silver lining though: their one the loss was to the Patriots.

Patriot Opponents

Week 16: Arizona Week 17: Buffalo

Two things are certain if the Patriots aspire to win a playoff birth via a divisional title. The Jets must lose. The Dolphins must lose. The only other way into the playoffs is, of course, one of the wild card spots. There are four teams in the wild card hunt: Indianapolis (10-4), Baltimore (9-5), Miami or the Jets (9-5), and New England (9-5). Both Indianapolis and Baltimore beat the Patriots in the event of a tie breaker. Let's, for the moment, assume Indianapolis will not lose both of its last two games. This means that between Baltimore, Miami, and the Jets, two of the team's need a loss for the Pats to claim a wild card spot, or, as mentioned before, both Miami AND the Jets need to lose in order to claim the division. This is under a Patriots 2-0 scenario in the last two weeks.

Outlook Bleak? Not just yet. There are a couple things blowing the wind in our direction.

First, the and probably most important, Miami plays the Jets week 17 giving one of them a loss, meaning that if the Patriots go 2-0 and Baltimore loses just one game, the Patriots make the wild card. I feel compelled to note that they play Dallas week 16.

Second, if the Patriots, Jets, and Miami all lose a game, the Patriots position is actually improved. Now listen closely. Most people assume that after the head-to-head and divisional tie breakers, comes the conference records. This is not so. The 3^rd tie breaker is record against common teams. Both the Patriots and Miami are 6-1 against common teams, while the Jets trail significantly. This is very important because if Miami beats the Jets, the Patriots could lose a game and still win a season-end tie-breaker

Third, Miami plays Denver week 16. If they lose this game, Miami falls to a 6-2 record against common teams and, just as with the Jets, the Patriots could take on a loss and still win the season-end tie-breaker.

Admittedly, the Patriots do not control their own fate. In the end, if the Patriots win their final two games they have a fairly good chance to play in the postseason. Under the 1-1 scenario, their situation does not necessarily improve; however, they have some things working to their advantage. Patriot fans, in addition to supporting a 5^th straight playoff appearance, should also watch with particular attention to the following games:

Week 16

Miami @ Denver (Patriots benefit from a Miami loss)

NYJ @ Seattle (Patriots benefit from a NYJ loss)

Baltimore @ Dallas (Patriots benefit from a Baltimore loss)

Week 17

Miami @ NYJ (Patriots most benefit from a NYJ loss, but also benefit from Miami loss)

Jacksonville @ Baltimore (Patriots benefit from Baltimore loss)

11/27/08

A Defining Season

Here we are as week 12 winds down and the AFC East continues to tighten up. The Pats evened the score for the season against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, increasing their victory total to seven. They have taken second place in the division, trailing the Jets by only a game. The outcome of the East seems to be unsure as now 3 of the 4 teams have held the #1 spot. The Patriots now turn their sights to a very successful Steelers team, which always seems to keep the Pats on their toes.

It will take another amazing performance from the Patriots offense against an always difficult and stubborn Pittsburgh defense. Matt Cassel has now thrown for 400+ yards in 2 straight games, something that hasn't been done since 2004. The Cassel Project has had its ups and down throughout the season. However, through the course of the season, an avid spectator can watch a clear and distinct improvement in performance and confidence. At the very least, he has warded off unwarranted criticism piled on at the beginning of the season. With the improvements he has made, wide receivers, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and even Jabar Gaffney have seen an ever-increasing role. Subsequently, the running game has opened up over the last few games, topping the 100-yard mark in the last three. The pass-to-develop-the-run offense seems to be immerging once again, an offensive strategy brought to the team by former Offensive Coordinator Charlie Weis.

Patriot defense has also always thrived under Coach Belichick. Even with a damaged secondary and loss of Harrison for the season, Bill Belichick has managed to outsmart offensive opponents. The Pats have always had trouble with injuries, particularly on defense. The Patriots set a record in 2003 for the most starters lost to injury in the course of the season. The Pats broke their own record in 2004 and are on pace to do so again now in 2008. The outcomes of the 2003 and 2004 seasons were as profitable as it gets, winning 2 of their 3 NFL titles. Bill Belichick has a certain strength in developing a very
well-rounded team, as is evident by both defensive and offensive success in the past. This innate quality has once again surfaced this year.

Over the past 7 years, the Patriots have seen the modern day promised land and all the glory that it comes with. They have also endured reputation crippling criticism and the devastation that came with a nearly perfect season. With all of the turmoil behind us, this has become their most defining season. Midway through the second quarter during week 1, Bernard Pollard wiped the face of the Patriots clean off. Without future Hall of Famer, Tom Brady, football fans all over the country, except in New England, dubbed the season as over. Since then Patriots have defined themselves as a true team, relying not on a select aspect of the game week in and week out. Instead, they have reverted back to what every New England fan has known them capable of: winning games in whatever way possible. In the end, only the outcome will define this season, but the Patriots are playing team ball, something that has been in their core throughout the dynasty.