Well, Matt Ryan is the first opening round pick (besides Jake Long) to sign his rookie deal and although there are varying opinions on Ryan in Atlanta, having him on board this early is a definite positive step.  As I look at the deal Ryan signed (6 yrs, $72 mil with $34 mil guaranteed), there are three factors that could play an important role in determining the overall acceptance of Matt Ryan in Atlanta.

            First off, with a deal that makes gives him the largest signing bonus in the history of the NFL, there are huge, immediate expectations.  There are already grumblings in the city and around the league that Atlanta overpaid for Ryan.  Several people are calling the deal outrageous.  Some are going as far as calling Falcon’s owner, Arthur Blank, a hypocrite due to the fact that he voted to abolish the league’s labor agreement one day and forked over that type of money to a player who’s never taken a snap the next day.  Sure, the Falcon’s probably could have had Ryan for 2-5 million less, but if having him in camp on time results in accelerated development, it’s worth it.  The one thing this organization could least afford to do was allow negotiations to linger well into September like the Raiders did with Jamarcus Russell last year. 

            Secondly, there will be undeniable comparisons of Ryan to Glenn Dorsey, Joe Flacco, Brian Brohm and Chad Henne.  Many people, including yours truly, thought the Falcons should have taken Dorsey with the third pick.  My rationale in this is that if Ryan’s upside is somewhere close to Matt Hasselbeck and Glenn Dorsey’s is in the Warren Sapp range…would you pass on Sapp for Hasselbeck?  I don’t think so.  Granted, QB is a much more valuable position than DT on any football team and have a greater affect on a teams success.  But with all the holes this team has, even if Ryan is a playoff caliber QB, this team is nowhere near so. 

            Ryan will be linked to Flacco, Brohm and Henne simply because they are all QB’s the Falcons could have gotten later than pick three.  With Flacco, although he was gone when the Falcon’s traded back up to 21 to select Sam Baker,  they could have given up the same (if not much more) to go up higher for Flacco.  And they could have easily waited until round 2 to select Henne or Brohm.  Again…only time will tell.

            The third factor in this equation is the omnipresent Michael Vick residue.  There are plenty of people that will still show up at the Georgia Dome wearing #7 Falcon jerseys.  If Ryan struggles early, it could open the floodgates for people to pile on.  Even if he does well, he’ll never provide the same pure excitement, media attention and appeal that Vick brought Atlanta.  The cure for this is to win.  If Ryan can be a vital cog in turning this franchise into a winner, the fans will forget about Vick’s presence in due time…or at least until he’s reinstated into the NFL. 

            For now, regardless of anyone’s approval, acceptance and / or acknowledgement of Matt Ryan, the fact is it’s a very good thing to get him into camp ASAP.  Ryan is a smart guy who should pick up the playbook fairly quickly.  But he needs to be there to earn the trust of his teammates and show that he can be a leader.

Round One

-QB Matt Ryan, Boston College (3^rd)-Up until a few hours before the draft, it was widely assumed that the Falcons would take DT Glenn Dorsey at number 3.  Ryan is, overwhelmingly, considered the top QB from this class.  He also has several obstacles to overcome in Atlanta.  First and foremost, he has to establish himself as the face of the franchise.  There is little doubt that’s why Arthur Blank wants him.  Ryan must produce (and produce big soon) in order to win the Atlanta fan base over.  Atlanta is a city that was divided, sharply, by racial lines when concerning Michael Vick.  Matt Ryan’s, as well as the team’s, success will go a long way in repairing that rift.  Another hurdle for Ryan will be distancing himself from the failures of Joey Harrington.  Harrington, another former #3 overall OB, is now Ryan’s teammate.  Many people in Atlanta are comparing the two.  If Ryan stumbles on the field, that will only perpetuate the Harrington comparisons.  Matt Ryan will be given the chance to win the starting job in camp, along with Harrington and Chris Redman.  This draft class for the Falcons, as with any class with a first round QB, will be rated based upon Ryan’s long term success.

-OT Sam Baker, USC (21^st)-If the draft were held immediately after the season, this pick would not have been nearly as shocking and most people would be calling this a steal.  Baker performed below standard during his off-season workouts and was considered by many to be a late second to early third round tackle.  Some scouts even thought he’d be an OG in the NFL.  But, based on onfield performance only, Baker is worth the pick.  Once the run on tackles began to take place in round one, the Falcons had to find a solid OT prospect to protect their new QB’s blindside.  Baker, barring anything unforeseen, should immediately be the starter at LT.

Round Two

ILB Curtis Lofton, Oklahoma (37^th)-Lofton could very be the Falcon’s rookie with the most to contribute immediately.  Linebacker is, relatively, an easy position to adjust to in the rookie season.  Lofton is a playmaker and has very good instincts.  If Lofton can make a strong showing in the off-season and preseason, it may spell the end the line for longtime Falcon’s great and fan favorites Keith Brooking. 

Round Three

CB Chevis Jackson, LSU (68^th)-CB was the defense’s biggest area of need coming into the draft.  Jackson, while not an elite prospect, is solid, smart and has good ball skills.  He also played against top level competition in college in the SEC.  Jackson is limited physically, however, as he doesn’t have the natural ability to be left out on an island.  Jackson will also compete for a starting job also.

WR Harry Douglas, Louisville (84^th)-Douglas is a quick, sure-handed receiver who was highly productive in college.  He runs solid routes and always seems to get open.  The drawback with Douglas is size and strength.  He will have trouble getting off the jam vs. physical CB’s.  He should be an asset in the slot with Roddy White and Michael Jenkins on the outside.  Also consider the age of Joe Horn and the fragility of Brian Finneran.

S Thomas DeCoud, California (98^th)-This is about where DeCoud was expected to be drafted.  He is solid in run support and has very good range over the deep middle.  He should also be a core special teams player immediately.  DeCoud is an inconsistent tackler and needs to work on his technique.  He also struggles in man coverage.  He will compete for time at both safety spots. 

Round Five

OLB Robert James, Arizona St. (138^th)-James is classic tweener.  He’s not big and stout enough to be a top-tier OLB and he’s not fast enough to drop back to safety.  James is quick enough on the weakside to make plays in the backfield.  He also has the athleticism to mature into a solid coverage LB.

DE/OLB Kroy Biermann, Montana (154^th)-Biermann is also a tweener…to small as a 4-3 DE and is not particularly fast enough to be a full time OLB.  He does show good quickness and has shown solid natural cover instincts.

Round Six

RB Thomas Brown, Georgia (172^nd)-Brown was highly productive in the SEC.  The concern with Brown is his inability to stay healthy.  Brown is a smallish back who is similar in style to former Falcon, Warrick Dunn.  If he can stay health, Brown may push Jerrious Norwood for carries.

Round Seven

CB Wilrey Fontenot, Arizona (212^th)-Fontenot is a smooth athlete with solid man to man skills.  He changes direction well and has loose hips.  He is, however, a work in progress in run support and he gets bullied by physical receivers in coverage.  He also needs to work on his red zone coverage skills.  With a dearth of CB’s on the roster, he has a chance to stick. 

TE Keith Zinger, LSU (232^nd)-Zinger is not a great athlete and can’t stretch the middle of the field.  He does have reliable hands and a solid blocker.  He was not highly productive in college, primarily to the system he played in. 

Undrafted Free Agents

DE Brandon Miller, Georgia

P Jimmie Kaylor, Colorado St.

RB Jamar Brittingham, Bloomsburg

LB Ike Brown, Central Michigan

           As draft weekend 2008 approaches, the Falcons have ensured themselves of at least one thing in said draft…options.  By racking up early round picks (six in the first three rounds) Atlanta has given themselves the flexibility to maneuver up if they eye someone they really like starts to slip.  The can move down and assume even more picks.  Or they can stand pat and still grab a bevy of talent.  Of course, the reason for the options is not a good one.  First, the fact that they’re selecting third means they weren’t very good in 2007.  Secondly, they traded away a big piece of the defense (DeAngelo Hall) for high draft picks.

            The Falcons are hands down the NFL team with the worst fortune over the last decade.  Since the ’98 team made a Super Bowl appearance, there has been one bad break after another in Atlanta; Jamal Anderson tears his knee up early in 1999 and end his career.  Michael Vick breaks his leg in the preseason and ends his season in 2003.  Vicks injury leads to a terrible season which leads to Dan Reeves’ firing.  Jim Mora goes on the radio and tells the world he’d rather be coaching elsewhere.  As well as the well documented Vick dog fighting case, Bobby Petrino’s abrupt exit to be a Hog and the raid on a once promising roster this past off-season.

            The 2008 draft will go a long way in repairing what has been tarnished and lost as far as the faith the fans have in Atlanta.  Arthur Blank, as classy of an owner as he is, will do everything he can to get this organization back on the right track.  And new GM Thomas Dmitrov has done in one off-season what his predecessor, Rich McKay failed to do in his entire tenure…make decisive action and move on.  Dmitrov seems to have a bright future. 

            So, whether the Falcons decide to go with the stud DT (Glenn Dorsey) or the franchise QB, this draft class is a new beginning for the Falcons’ franchise.  The Georgia Dome is being done over with a new paint scheme and all that’s left to do is put a quality team on the field inside of it. 
 

            There are several scenarios that could play out for the Falcons first day.  Here are a few of them:

1) The St. Louis Rams take Chris Long, landing Glenn Dorsey(the guy they really want) in the Falcon’s lap.

2) The Rams take Dorsey, leaving the Falcons to select Matt Ryan, most likely.

3) The Rams take Dorsey and another team contacts Atlanta about a trade…netting even more picks for the Falcons.

4) The Falcons use multiple picks to trade back up into the first round to select a QB they really like, i.e.  Brian Brohm, Joe Flacco, Chad Henne.  There are a few teams (Pittsburgh, San Diego, Jacksonville) who could be looking to move down or out of the first round.
 

As the draft approaches, the Falcon’s have answered a few of the questions that dogged them at the end of the 2007 season, but many remain.  They’ve addressed the everlasting head coach issue by bringing in the tough, defensive minded Mike Smith. Smith previously held the defensive coordinator position in Jacksonville, where he led a hard-nosed, disciplined unit under Jack Del Rio.  They also signed free agent RB Michael Turner, from the San Diego Chargers, to a long term deal.  Turner will take over for Warrick Dunn, who was subsequently cut.  Although these were two very important issues that needed to be addressed in Atlanta, this team and organization have a ways to go before it gets back on the competitive track. 

            The Falcon’s release a number of recent fixtures this off-season in TE Alge Crumpler, LT Wayne Gandy, DT Rod Coleman, QB Byron Leftwich, FS Chris Crocker and the aforementioned Dunn. All of these players are on the downside of their respective careers and won’t be greatly missed as far as production goes.

            After trading pro bowl CB DeAngelo Hall to the Raiders this off-season, the Falcon’s have a hole on the corner.  Some will argue that ridding themselves of Hall’s me first attitude and looming contract issues is addition by subtraction.  This could be the case long term, but by the talent drop off alone, it may hurt in the short term. 

            What the trade of Hall did was allow the Falcon’s to continue to stockpile draft picks.  Atlanta now has four picks within the first 48 selections of the draft.  That gives them three options: They can stand pat with the picks they have, trade down in the first round and accumulate more picks or package the multiple second round picks to move back into round 1.  Options are a good thing for Atlanta as they have huge needs at some very key positions.  Aside from the hole at CB, the Falcons have needs at QB, DT, OT and ILB. 

            With the re-signings of QB’s Chris Redman and Joey Harrington and the return of DJ Shockley, it is not clear whether the Falcons will select Boston College QB, Matt Ryan if he’s available at # 3.  Ryan is the top QB in this class, but many question whether he’s a franchise QB worth a top 3 pick.  Ryan is definitely a possibility though. 

            With practically no LT, the Falcon’s could also use the # 3 pick on Michigan’s Jake Long…if he’s available.  Long is the top OL on the board, but he does not come without questions either.  Many, including myself, doubt whether Long has the feet to ever be a top tier LT in the NFL.  He’s a sure thing as a RT, but teams don’t spend top five picks on the less-heralded RT position. 

            This is a deep CB draft, but none of the top corners, McKelvin, Rodger-Cromartie, Jenkins or Talib are # 3 pick worthy at this point. 

            The team could also decide to go with LSU DT, Glenn Dorsey.  Dorsey, to me is the best choice for the Falcon’s.  He’s as close to a sure thing as this draft has, he has a definite position and he fits a need.  The depth of the DT’s is also not as good as the previously mentioned positions.  The likelihood of getting a QB similar to Ryan, a OT close to Long or a CB close to the top 5 are greater than getting a DT anywhere near the level of Dorsey or Ellis. 

            With a month to go until the draft, the Falcon’s agenda for the 2008 NFL draft remains a bit cloudy.  So the Falcon fandom continues to hold its collective breath and takes a wait and see approach.