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Kansas City Chiefs Column
By: Lloyd Baskett |
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5/3/12 Now that the Draft is over, all of the “experts” are giving teams grades, projecting which rookies will be “busts” and which ones will be Pro Bowl caliber players. All of which is ridiculous since these are the same “experts” whose Mock Drafts were nowhere close to being on target. The fact is no one really knows how these rookies will pan out. How will they handle the pressure, the notoriety, the money, and the life style changes? The people in the best situation to make these assessments are the personnel people on each of the teams in the NFL. They have access to infinitely more data than the average “Draft Geek”. But they are not infallible because they are human and make mistakes as well. So deciding that Andrew Luck is destined for the Hall of Fame and Dontari Poe is destined to be a bust is premature at this point. So without deciding the fate of each player chosen, look at what team needs have been addressed this off-season: 1. RT – Addressed with the acquisition of Eric Winston in FA 2. NT – 1st round pick Dontari Poe 3. WR – 4th and 7th round picks Devon Wylie and Junior Hemingway 4. RG depth / upgrade – 2nd round pick Jeff Allen can play all 4 OG and OPT positions 5. OT swing Tackle and depth – Donald Stephenson in round 3 will be groomed as the future LT while serving as the swing Tackle 6. Third Safety – Menzie in round 5 can fill this role as well as Nickel or Dime Back 7. RB depth – Cyrus Gray in round 6 provides insurance and a change of pace as well as a 3rd down option 8. TE depth – Boss signed in FA 9. Big RB – Hillis acquired through FA 10. CB – Routt acquired to replace Carr through FA These are all holes that were potentially filled and/or needs that were addressed. That doesn’t mean all of these will pan out, but the effort to meet those needs has been addressed. However, there are, as with every team, other areas that still need to be looked at: 1. QB competition – None. Quinn brought in as a stop gap backup while Stanzi develops, a franchise QB is acquired, or Cassel takes the next step. 2. Additional Pass Rusher – Gilberry is lost to FA, and Hali and Houston could be even better with another proven pass rusher to go with them. 3. One more cover Corner – In this division with Rivers and Manning, you need all of the cover Corners you can get. 4. More speed at WR – Wylie is a definite burner, but we still need a legitimate deep threat on the outside. 5. Upgrade the ILB spot – Belcher and Siler are there now, with Siler coming off an injury. A stud acquired to play alongside Johnson would be a major upgrade. The team still has ~$18M to spend under the cap. Based on what veterans are released by June 1, the Chiefs may be able to add some more depth and possibly upgrade. The only position where an upgrade might occur would be at ILB. In all, Pioli has done a nice job filling holes, meeting needs and improving the depth of his team. Also, it should be remembered that Charles, Moeaki, Berry, Cassel and Siler will all be returning from injuries that missed all, or most of last season. Add to that the fact that last year’s rookie class had no off season to develop, and this year it is like having a total influx of new players who were not a part of the team last year. No one knows how these guys will develop, how they will bounce back from their injuries, or how they will mesh together as a team. All anyone can do is address the needs and make the best choices possible with the information available 4/13/12 After much concern and angst over Scott Pioli’s less than spectacular record during Free Agency while with the Chiefs, he certainly deserves kudos for his efforts this off season. He was able to address many of the team’s needs by signing new Free Agents, or re-signing existing players. Each of the players signed will be a significant upgrade and fill an immediate need. - Eric Winston at RT over Barry Richardson – going from the worst RT in the league to arguably the best RT. - Brady Quinn at QB over Tyler Palko – no contest - Kevin Boss at TE over Leonard Pope – more flexibility and options in the passing game - Peyton Hillis at RB over Thomas Jones – bigger, stronger, younger and more upside with a need to re-prove himself in the league - Stanford Routt at CB over Brandon Carr – at best a trade off, but likely a good deal considering what Carr got for a contract by signing with Dallas Re-signing Daniels at CB and Belcher at ILB were sound decisions to hedge against not being able to provide further upgrades at these positions in the Draft. Franchising Bowe at WR was a no-brainer. The biggest need not addressed in Free Agency was NT. Several options were considered, but this spot will likely be addressed in the Draft. NT is the only “must have” position in the Draft. The Chiefs needs at other positions will be either for depth or an option to provide competition to upgrade at positions. Based on numerous mock drafts, unknown trades and other teams’ needs, a successful Chiefs draft would be: ROUND 1) #11 David DeCastro (Stanford) OG – this guy will be an all-pro, Steve Hutchinson-Will Shields type Guard for many years to come and make the “O” line one of the best for years. 2) #44 Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State) QB – in spite of his age, he will come in more game ready than any other QB still available after Round 1. He could play 8-10 years and provide Cassel with short term competition while the ever-elusive search for a true “franchise” QB continues. 3) #74 Alameda Ta’amu (Washington) DT – fills the team’s biggest need. He’s a huge (6’3, 335) run stopper that should be effective on 1st and 2nd downs. 4) #107 Leonard Johnson (Iowa State) CB – with having to face Manning and Rivers twice each year, you can’t have too many good Corners. 5) #146 Bernard Pierce (Temple) RB – would provide a quality backup for Charles, Hillis and McCluster. 6) #182 Marvin McNutt (Iowa) WR – the obligatory pick from Iowa would be a quality 4th receiver behind Bowe, Baldwin and Breaston in this Round. 7) #218 D’Anton Lynn (Penn State) FS – will provide security for Berry and Lewis at Safety as both are coming back from injuries. 7) #238 Jacquies Smith (Missouri) OLB – as stated with the CB’s, another developmental pass rusher, in the same conference as Manning and Rivers, to go with Hali and Houston is a wise move. Other areas where depth and increased competition could be addressed are ILB, OT and DE. These may be addressed through college free agency or veterans released before the season starts. In all, this off-season has been a huge success so far. The Draft could prove to be the crowning jewel to what may be Pioli’s best job done so far. 3/12/12 Since Manning has apparently decided not to give KC an opportunity to pitch themselves as a suitor for his services, it is time to move on. I would not even call this a Plan “B”, because no one is even sure of Manning’s health, ability to stay healthy, or return to his old form after the 4 neck surgeries at the age of 36. Certainly, he would have been worth the risk if a meeting could have been held and a fair opportunity presented itself. As of this writing, KC has $32.5M in cap room. Here (in order) is what KC should do next: 1. Cut, or not re-sign: a. Gregg NT $3.5M b. Jones RB $3.0M c. Vickers RB $1.25M d. Sheffield LB $0.453.5M e. Toribio NT $0.405M f. Draughn RB $0.390M g. Horne WR $0.54M h. Washington DB $0.565M 2. This adds ~$10.1M to the $32.5M for $42.6M 3. Reserve the dollars to sign the 2012 rookie class ~$10M (guesstimate), which leaves $32.6M for Free Agent acquisitions 4. Pursue, and sign the following Free Agents: a. Kyle Orton QB $8.5M (4 yrs) i. This provides competition with Cassel, a year to determine whether to re-sign Cassel after 2013, 3 years to develop Stanzi or another drafted QB, a better overall arm b. Brandon Carr CB $6M (4 yrs) i. If Manning does indeed sign with Denver, the logical step would be to put the best pass defense on the field as possible. Bring Carr back, along with the addition of Routt, will help accomplish this. c. Paul Soliai NT $6M (4 yrs) i. The Chiefs need a run stopper d. BenJarvis Green-Ellis RB $5M (4 yrs) i. They need a replacement for Jones, a complement and insurance for Charles, and a short-yardage specialist. e. Marc Colombo OT $4M (4 yrs) i. Obvious need to replace Richardson f. Re-sign RB McClain, DE Gilberry and DT Gordon for the remaining $3.1M for depth 5. Next, go into the draft targeting to best available athlete for depth or areas of need: a. ILB to compete /replace Belser. Siler is coming off an injury b. OG or OT for depth c. Developmental QB d. TE for insurance against further injuries to Moeaki e. CB/KR for competition and depth f. RB for depth The pursuit and signing of the Free Agents is assuming they would want to come to KC if given a fair offer. The fact that Manning would not even respond to a request for a visit is troublesome. One has to wonder if the drama and chaos surrounding Pioli and Haley last year, the rumors about Pioli’s dictatorial style and Hunt’s perception of being cheap will have an adverse effect on Free Agents. Certainly, the team can afford to go after just about anyone they want. This is an opportunity to establish some much needed depth and buy time to develop the next generation of players to replace those currently in their prime. 2/9/12 Many of the concerns / needs for the off season identified in last month’s column have been addressed in recent weeks: 1. Head Coach – Crennel a. Done – good choice 2. Offensive Coordinator – Daboll a. Done – wait and see (potentially a good choice) 3. New Special Teams Coach – McMahon a. Done – good choice 4. Defensive Coordinator – Crennel a. Done – Wise move 5. Retain Bowe / Carr – Not done yet 6. Re-sign Orton – Still a possibility 7. Sign Free Agents – Not time as yet 8. Purge the roster – Pending 9. Draft – Pending The next order of business is to re-sign either Bowe or Carr to a long-term deal, and “franchise” the other one. My suggestion would be to sign Carr and “franchise” Bowe. Quality Receivers can be obtained any year in the Draft, but shutdown Corners with the size, speed and experience that Carr has are hard to find. Bowe needs to produce one more season and show more consistency and maturity. One of the more encouraging announcements this off season is there will be competition for Cassel at QB. This brings in several possibilities: 1. Sign Manning – Chances are slim to none. 2. Trade up to draft either Luck or Griffin – Chances are slim to none... 3. Re-sign Orton – There is a reasonable possibility. 4. Sign another Free Agent QB (i.e. Campbell) - There is a reasonable possibility. 5. Draft a 2nd Tier QB in the Draft (i.e., Osweiler, Foles, Weeden) with a mid-round pick – Most likely possibility Whichever route is taken to bring in competition for Cassel at QB will assuredly improve the play there and provide assurance against injury. When Free Agency does open, the focus needs to be on upgrading starters and improving depth before the Draft. A sample of several young, quality Free Agents currently available in areas of need for KC are: 1. DT Soliai 26 Mia 2. OG Nicks 27 NO 3. OG Grubbs 28 Bal 4. SS Branch 25 Oak 5. ILB Tulloch 27 Det 6. RB Tolbert 26 SD With the Chiefs currently ~$30M under the cap, they could easily afford to sign Carr, “Franchise” Bowe, compete for Orton on the Free Agent market, and sign 3 of these Free Agents before the Draft. The team currently has their normal compliment of 7 draft choices. If they are unable to re-sign Orton, Carr and/or Bowe, they would be entitled to Compensatory Picks to offset those losses (hopefully that won’t be the case!). Regardless, this off season, they have a window of opportunity to fill several needs and set the team up for a long, sustained run at being competitive. As always, that will depend on wise talent evaluation and a willingness to step out of their comfort zone. 1/10/12 Now that the first piece of the latest Chiefs’ rebuilding puzzle is in place – the hiring of Romeo Crenell as the team’s 12th Head Coach – it’s time to assess and prioritize what is left to do this off season. 1. Find a legitimate Offensive Coordinator. 2. Find a competent Offensive Line coach. 3. Find a new Special Teams coach 4. Find a Defensive Coordinator to replace Crennel 5. Sign / retain both Bowe and Carr 6. Attempt to re-sign Orton 7. Sign several Free Agents (those who are signing their 2nd contracts) to replace numerous incumbents and provide overall depth 8. Purge the roster of fringe players who are not NFL caliber 9. Draft for need Offensive Coordinator - Crennel is a “defensive” guy and should continue focusing on elevating the play of the defense through his new coordinator. An innovative OC should be hired to: - Breathe life into one of the worst offense in the league, - Evaluate and assess the available talent, - Develop and teach the fundamentals for each of the positions through the respective position coaches, - Devise a game plan that is not predictable - Be able to effectively script and call plays on game day Offensive Line Coach – This guy will be the key to any immediate success the Chiefs will have. He will need to totally revamp the O-line and add at least three new starters as well as capable back-ups, either through Free Agency or the Draft. He should also look for bigger, stronger linemen in lieu of the small, quick athletic types that currently reside there. In today’s game, you have to protect the pocket. That cannot be done with 350 lb. DT’s caving in the middle of the pocket with your 280 lb. Center / Guard trying to block them. Special Teams – Special teams should be fundamentally sound and add a “pop” to the game when given the chance. Coverage this year was OK. Returns were OK. Too many field goals were blocked. Too many field goals were missed in crucial situations. Onside kicks were muffed. They didn’t significantly change field position or positively impact the game. Defensive Coordinator – Crennel needs to oversee the whole team, but someone needs to be put in charge of the defense to ensure the same philosophy used by Crennel is carried forth and the overall growth continues. Bowe / Carr – Franchise Bowe and sign Carr before he gets on the Free Agent market. There is plenty of money under the cap to do so. Elite, or really good cover corners with Carr’s size, speed and skills are rare – sign him to a long term deal immediately. Franchise Bowe to pay him, yet give him one more year to mature, see how he handles success, and most import, and give him a chance to work in a stable offensive system with a competent QB and weapons around him. Orton – Make Orton a fair market value offer and give him the opportunity to compete for the starting job. He and Cassel have the same stats, but Orton reads defenses better, has a better arm and throws a better deep ball. Having both on the team will provide security and buy time to find / develop a young, franchise-type QB for the future. Free Agents - Upgrades and / or depth is needed at every position. Look for and sign those Free Agents who are finishing their first contracts and have upside (like Carr for the Chiefs). It really doesn’t matter what position they play, Add 3 – 5 quality Free Agents before the Draft, then draft according to needs yet to be filled. A combination of Free Agents, returning players from IR, resigned UFA’s of their own and quality draft choices will put the Chiefs at the top of the AFC West and build a foundation to keep them there. Purge – Based on the depth chart for starters from the last game, the following players need to be replaced by one of the processes mentioned above: Weigmann – Retire Lilja – Retire Richardson – Cut Pope – Backup Jones – Retire Gregg – Retire Belcher – Backup Piscitelli – Cut Langford – Backup Draft – Aside from the obvious needs listed above, backup depth at ILB, Safety, RB, TE are needed as well. It appears the Chiefs will have the 11th – 12th picks in this year’s Draft. If they hit on their top four picks, they should be able to choose from the top 125 players available. That would fill four of the needed spots. As indicated above, if they target and sign five quality Free Agents that takes care of those needs. Every year there are 1 – 2 Undrafted Free Agents that make the team, as well as someone from the Practice Squad or a lower round draft choice. All of this leads to the bottom line. This off season is all about Pioli and the job he does in helping Crennel structure the staff, pay for quality players and draft well. 12/12/11 Everyone is clamoring for Todd Haley’s dismissal – and it is probably the best thing to do at the end of the season. Certainly, he has been dealt some extremely bad luck with the key injuries suffered this year. And who knows to what degree he was afforded the opportunity to reinforce his roster with serviceable Free Agents by Hunt and Pioli. But there are still plenty questions about Haley and his style to suggest it is time for a change. 1. There doesn’t appear to be a clearly defined offensive philosophy. Again, the losses of Cassel, Charles and Moeaki have impacted those decisions. But their injuries happened long enough ago that adjustments to the offense should have been made by now to avoid being laughed at by the TV announcers during telecasts. 2. Who is in charge of the offense? Haley? Muir? Zorn? There has been too much confusion over play-calling, game planning, clock management, etc. 3. Why is Barry Richardson still staring at RT? Why wasn’t Jared Gaither given an opportunity to start here, but immediately inserted into San Diego’s lineup after being claimed on waivers? Mims has been promoted from the practice squad; put him in – what’s there to lose? 4. Clearly, Tyler Palko is NOT an NFL caliber QB. He is too small, can’t read defenses, throws into multiple coverages, has no pocket presence, and possesses a weak arm. Given that, and the fact that they won’t even let Ricki Stanzi in the game at QB, suggests a really poor assessment of the overall QB situation by either Haley or Pioli, or both. 5. Why does Haley continue to run McCluster inside on draw plays (which everyone in the stadium can see coming) and Battle outside on sweeps? Why isn’t McClain being given an opportunity to run? 6. I assume Haley is being forced to play Jackson on defense based on where Jackson was drafted, but it’s clear that Gilberry, Bailey and Gordon are all more effective than Jackson. 7. Given, the safety position has been decimated with losses to Berry and key backups. But Sabby (Whiff) Piscatelli? Come on! 8. Obviously, there is little to no pass rush from the down linemen. Why not bring blitz pressure on every down? What is there to lose at this point? Next year will be a fresh start in more ways than one for the Chiefs. 1. They will welcome back Moeaki, Charles, Cassel, Berry and not-to-be-forgotten Siler from injured reserve. Each would have been a major contributor this year. 2. Even though their backups have not played well in their stead, those backups have been evaluated, their deficiencies identified, and decisions on their possible retention for depth can be effectively made. 3. The team will have a top-10 pick (and possibly a top-5 pick) in the Draft. If it’s a top-10, hopefully, they will be able to find a partner to trade down for an OT and amass more picks. If it’s a top-5, I’d hope they’d look at one of the three top ranked QB’s coming out, Barkley, Luck or Griffin. In either case, they will have the opportunity to add some quality players through the Draft by drafting so high in each round. 4. They will play the regular AFC West, two last place teams in the AFC, along with the AFC North and NFC South. This schedule should be less difficult than the 2011 schedule. 5. They will have the benefit of a full off-season conditioning and training program. Given all of the opportunities for a fresh start in 2012, a purging of Haley and many of his staff is in order. Because of his authoritarian style, it is difficult to say which of those coaches should be retained. But that would be a call for the new coach to make. Also, there are several qualified head coaching candidates available (Cower, Gruden, Billick, etc.). But, there will likely be numerous other teams looking for new coaches (San Diego, Miami, Tampa, St. Louis, Minnesota, etc.). So the sooner a decision is made to dismiss Haley, the better. Again, many of these shortcomings are not all Haley’s fault. Pioli deserves some of the blame for the lack of adequately assessing the talent on the team and providing quality players for Haley. And Hunt may be culpable in preventing Pioli from spending to the salary cap maximum. In either case, it all falls on Haley’s shoulders. This is his first head coaching experience and he has made numerous mistakes. Maybe he can learn from those mistakes and be a more effective head coach down the road. But now it’s time for a change in K.C. 11/14/11 There’s only one word that comes to mind when I think of the Chiefs at this point – PITIFUL! OFFENSE Offensive Line - They have to have the worst (or most) offensive line in the league. They can’t run block, they can’t pass protect. And they can’t execute the screens and draws. Wiegmann and Lilja are too old, too small and not athletic enough. Richardson is stiff, slow-footed and slow to react. Albert is undersized and top-heavy. Asamoah is OK, but needs some help. This group needs a major overhaul in the off season. Running Backs – McCluster is too small to run inside, can’t run outside because there’s no blocking, and can’t hold on to the ball. Jones is a total liability and can do nothing but pass protect (which is sorely needed). McClain is underutilized. Battle is lucky he’s so big, because there are precious few holes for him to run through. Tight Ends – Pope will usually make the 5 yard catch then turn and find the first defender he can to run into and get tackled. O’Connell and Becht are just there. There are no deep patterns or seam routes to open up the middle of the defense. Wide Receivers - It would be nice if the receivers did two simple things – create separation and catch the ball. Breaston has fairly good hands, but rarely goes deep. Bowe drops as many as he catches and has no separation. Baldwin runs the wrong routes, drops balls, and misses blocks. Quarterback - Cassel can’t throw the deep ball, is indecisive, stares down his receivers, has poor pocket awareness and is inaccurate. Playcalling – Predictable. If I can assess the personnel, formation and game situation and determine what play they will run, I guarantee the opposing defenses can do much better. I cannot understand why they insist upon using players to do things they are not capable of being successful at. McCluster is not an every down back and should be used on flares, screens, shovel passes, etc. McClain should get more carries. Jones should be the assistant RB coach. They rarely take deep shots down the field. Coaching – Who’s calling the plays? Why is there always so much confusion in getting them in? Why aren’t time outs used more effectively? Why can’t players line up properly? Why can’t the existing players get coached-up to execute better, or replace them with backups? (Are the backups THAT bad?) DEFENSE Line – To have two top 5 picks staring, they underachieve. They are slow off of blocks, play too high and are generally smaller than the offensive linemen they go up against. Obviously, they have ZERO pass rush skills. Linebackers – Hali and Johnson are doing yeoman’s work. The rest are just there. You rarely hear their names called for being in on any plays. All are deficient in dropping into coverage, and Studebaker and Houston always get caught inside on sweeps. Defensive Backs – Carr and Flowers are living on their reputations and potential. They routinely get burned deep. McGraw is overexposed. Many times Lewis looks like he’s playing the entire backfield by himself. The backups are substandard. Playcalling – With such a nonexistent pass rush, why not blitz more? The DB’s are getting torched anyway. Coaching - Get away from the 3-4, and go to the 4-3. They don’t have the personnel to play the 3-4. Make Houston a DE and Washington an OLB. I realize the personnel are different and short due to injuries, but good teams develop depth and adapt. The Chiefs are sticking to plans meant for other, better players to execute. Now it’s time to change. The easy part of the season is over, and they’re 4-5. They’ve even screwed themselves out of the “Suck for Luck” sweepstakes. They may get two more wins this season. If so, they should have a top 10 pick again, recoup the injured players from this year, and hopefully, Hunt will fork over some money for Free Agent acquisitions. Haley needs to get his act together as to playcalling, game preparation and game management. This season is down the drain. 10/12/11 With a little over a quarter of the season gone, it’s time to assess where this team is – I’m not sure anyone can tell. There hasn’t been very much positive to be excited about, except having two wins (over two winless teams) the last two weeks. Wins are great, but there are still plenty of reasons to be concerned. 1. Coaching - The team never begins the game, either offensively or defensively, with any sense of urgency or focus. They sleepwalk through the first half and have to try to rebound in the second, which is not always successful. 2. Playcalling – Again, the playcalling in the first halves is elementary at best –draw play (2 yards), bubble screen (incomplete), pass to the flat (3 yards), and punt. There is no pass rush on defense, yet very little attempts to blitz. Also, the structure of the playcalling with Haley, Muir and Zorn all being involved is too time consuming and confusing. 3. Personnel Usage – McCluster is not an every down back to use on draw plays. Jones’ best days as a back are behind him. Weigmann continues to get overmatched at Center. Belcher is a chase-from-behind tackler and not a run stopping force in the middle. 4. Time Outs - There are way too many misuses of time-outs due to poor communication from the sidelines. 5. Talent Level – Flowers and Carr at DB have regressed. They are getting burned routinely every week. Jones can only break a run if the hole is wide enough to drive a truck through. Him, along with Pope at TE, wouldn’t recognize a “move” if it bit them. They’d rather try to run over a tackler (unsuccessfully) than cut back and make additional yards. McCluster isn’t focused, makes too many mental errors, and doesn’t have a defined role for his skill set. 6. The remaining schedule does not get any easier. Some reasons for hope: 1. Special Teams Play – Coverage has been exceptional. Areans has been tough, reliable and productive returning kicks. Colquitt has been a game-changer at flipping the field on punts. After a shaky start, Succoup has been reliable kicking field goals and kickoffs. 2. Coaching – Despite the slow starts, credit must be given for adjustments, both offensively and defensively, to the coaches for making adjustments made by the coaches at halftime. 3. QB – Cassel appears to be emerging with more confidence and competency. In the second halves, he is firing the ball with authority and providing fire and leadership. 4. Playcalling – Again, in the second halves, the playcalling is more aggressive, diverse and up-tempo. 5. Talent – Jackie Battle is emerging as a reliable RB in the absence of Charles. Breaston has become more of an option to provide defensive relief for Bowe. The offensive line (except for Weigmann) is starting to gel. The defensive line is starting to control the running game. Hali and Johnson are playing “lights out” at LB. 6. Schedule – If they play whole games like they’ve played the second halves of the last three games, they should be competitive in each remaining game, with real chances for wins against everyone with the possible exceptions of Green Bay and New England. The “Bye Week” is coming at an opportune time. It will allow them the usual time to heal minor “tweaks”. But more important, it will afford them an opportunity to re-tool their approaches on offense and defense to incorporate the necessary changes to offset the losses of Charles and Moeaki on offense and Berry and Siler on defense. It will also allow them to find a role for McCluster on offense as well as work Baldwin in to the receiving rotation. Making these personnel changes will also necessitate re-working the playbook and playcalling. Hopefully, the off week will allow the coaching staff an opportunity to work on their in-game communication and time out strategies. Realistically, the Chiefs likely won’t make the playoffs, but this could serve as a “redshirt” year to build depth, find out who’s mentally tough, and develop young players as well as stabilize the coaching staff. 9/6/11 The Chiefs’ preseason was filled with positive expectations, speculations and opportunities. However, the conservative, non-traditional approach taken by Haley and Co. provided very little insight as to where this team currently stands. Questions still abound for the offensive and defensive lines, WR, and QB. Due to injuries suffered by Siler and Moeaki at ILB and TE, the backup depth there is also questionable. Based on the needs mentioned above, the final roster configuration seems curious as well. The decision to keep five Safeties (particularly Piscitelli) and three TE’s (subsequently reduced to two with the release of Becht) was strange. The addition of OT Maneri for Becht is a positive step to add depth to the offensive line. But more quality help is still needed there along with the other positions mentioned above, and Piscatelli is holding a spot that could be better served somewhere else. Now that they have eight offensive linemen with the addition of Maneri, they need to sort the starters and backups by position. Richardson regressed at RT during the preseason and needs to be replaced. Gaither showed well in the last game, but got no reps at RT. He should replace Richardson if he can make the transition. Lilja has been out with an undisclosed injury at LG, forcing Hudson to get overworked at C and LG. Weigmann is on his last legs at C and should be replaced by Hudson before midseason. These decisions and position changes should have already been made so the line could develop some confidence, continuity and confidence. Due to the fluctuation and uncertainty on the offensive line, the running game has been hard to assess. One thing is certain; the backs are all running very tentatively and fumbling way too much. Charles should be OK and McClain looks solid, but Jones still looks like his best days are behind him. Again, if there is some other big back who becomes available, sign him and dump Jones. Bowe was very good in the preseason, everyone else was average or below at best. Baldwin’s injury still leaves the jury out as to where this group currently stands. The decision to keep both Colbert and Breaston at Slot Receiver and releasing Tucker was another curious decision. Urban has not shown the ability to get deep and both Tucker and Horne (Practice Squad) could stretch the field. Moeaki’s injury and going to IR was a major blow. They have no one to work the seams and middle of the field with him out for the year. Pope and O’Connell are not the answer. This is a spot where a pass catching TE. If available, could be added in Piscatelli’s spot on the roster. Speculation abounds as to whether Cassel will play in the first game with his cracked ribs. Palko looked OK in the preseason, but I’m not comfortable with him as the backup QB. Again, here’s another spot to seek help for a more seasoned backup to Cassel if someone comes available and then release Palko. Stanzi looks like he has a future, but needs time on the sidelines. Jackson is to the defensive line what Richardson is to the offensive line. He has not progressed and needs to be replaced. The rookies, Bailey and Bair both look to have a better grasp on the position than Jackson. Gregg, Powe and Gordon have a good sense of controlling the middle of the defensive line. Siler would have replaced Belcher at ILB. Belcher is willing, but way too small and gets pushed around too frequently. Williams is not much better. They need a run-stuffer inside to complement Johnson and seal the middle of the defense. Houston and Sheffield have both outplayed Studebaker at this point during the preseason. Johnson is playing at an All-Pro level and Hali is being held on every play (as usual). With the exception of Piscatelli, the defensive backfield looks solid, with a chance to be special. With all of this uncertainty and holes to fill, the forecast for the season is not as bright as previously thought (Bold = Home Games): 1. Bills Win 9. Broncos Win 2. Lions Loss 10. Patriots Loss 3. Chargers Loss 11. Steelers Loss 4. Vikings Win 12. Bears Win 5. Colts Loss 13. Jets Loss 6. Raiders Loss 14. Packers Loss 7. Chargers Loss 15. Raiders Win 8. Dolphins Win 16. Broncos Win This projects to a 7 – 9 season and missing the playoffs. As usual, injuries and in-season personnel decisions will impact the record. With all of the current questions and injuries, this is a realistic expectation for the 2011 season. 8/11/11 Once again, I have to give it up to Scott Pioli. After the lockout was removed and teams were allowed to start signing Free Agents, me, along with all of the Chiefs’ Nation were waiting with baited breath to see which major pickups the team would sign. Not much happened. First, Steve Breaston came in as the Slot / #2 or #3 Receiver. This is a major upgrade and filling of a significant need. So, we were off to a good start. Then, things went quiet while the rest of the league was signing guys like crazy. Next, they announced the acquisition of Kelly Gregg at NT. Again, a major hole was filled, but things went quiet and the league signings continued. A couple of days later, Brandon Siler was signed as an ILB, and a pattern was starting to develop. The speculation that FB Le’Ron McClain would be a Chief was ended when he signed next, again addressing a major area of need. The latest big signing of Jared Gaither at OT is in the same mold as the others – addressing a need and either adding quality depth as a starter or a back-up. They also picked up DL Amon Gordon, S Sabby Piscitelli and WR Keary Colbert. The Pioli way is very frustrating for us fans. There is no leakage as to what the team is thinking, who they may have their sights on, who has been in for a look, etc. The fans know nothing until the deals are essentially done. However, based on his track record and the personnel he has assembled, it’s hard to argue with his methods. Look at last year’s Free Agent acquisitions, Lilja, Smith, Jones, and Weigmann. They turned out pretty good using the same methodology. This year’s group (on paper) should have a bigger impact. Breaston in the slot will free up coverage on Bowe that will minimize him being double covered. His presence in the slot will also give Cassel another check-down option in short yardage for a 5 – 7 yard pickup. Also, it will create mismatches with either LB’s or Safeties having to pick Breaston over the middle. Gregg brings size, skill, experience and leadership to the D-line and will serve as a mentor for Powe and Torribio. He has played this particular position and technique at a high level and will serve as a coach on the field, while adding an element of toughness that they still need to develop. Siler is a two-down run stopper who will further fortify the middle of the defense. He’s bigger and stronger than Belcher and has a nasty streak (“I just want to hit somebody in the mouth”). Plus, since he was signed from the Chargers and was a quality player for them, this helps us and weakens them. McClain meets the same criteria as those mentioned above – big, talented, tough, nasty (“I came here to chew bubblegum and kick @##, and they’re all out of bubblegum!”). In addition to being a devastating lead blocker and short-yardage back, he can be a featured runner as well to spell either Charles or Jones if needed. Gaither is an intriguing acquisition due to his health issues. But when healthy, he’s one of the premier, ascending young Tackles in the game. His presence will provide either quality depth as a starter or a back-up, and will push some of the incumbents to elevate their game or get cut. Due to the varying stages of fitness and knowledge the various types of players reported to camp, and the varying times they were allowed to report, there has been very little hitting and very little to effectively evaluate. The good thing is there have been no major injuries (knock on wood). The bad thing no one knows how their bodies will react when the live contact really starts, or many of the guys who look like Tarzan in shells will play like Jane in full pads. The Preseason starts tomorrow night. We’ll have four weeks to get answers to these questions as well as see how all of the new acquisitions (Free Agents, Draft Choices, UDA’s, waiver pick-ups, trades, etc.) meshes together to form the 53 man roster the Chiefs designate for September 11. 7/16/11 Mike Vrabel’s recent decision to retire warrants a look at what the age / experience level for the Chiefs might be, should this ridiculous CBA agreement ever gets ratified. Obviously, the impact of Free Agent acquisitions is yet to be factored. But with Vrabel’s announcement, Wiegmann wavering on retirement, Waters potentially being released, and Chambers most certainly not coming back, all are factors that could significantly reduce the average age / experience level of the team. Older Player Age Experience / Younger Player Option (on Roster) Age Experience Vrabel 35 14 - Studebaker 25 4 / Sheffield 23 1 / Houston 22 R / Walters 25 4 / Cole 23 2 Wiegmann 37 15 - Niswanger 28 6 / Hudson 22 R Waters 34 11 - Asamoah 22 1 / Harris 26 2 Chambers 32 11 - Baldwin 21 R / Horne 24 1 / Lawrence 26 3 / Tucker 24 1 The loss of Vrabel, Wiegmann and Waters would deal a significant blow to the leadership of the team, both on and off the field. Certainly their skill sets have been eroded with age, but their knowledge and guile are irreplaceable. Those can only come with experience. If the veterans are replaced, hopefully the younger players on the team, like Berry, Cassel, Studebaker, Flowers, Bowe (yes, Bowe), can carry on the leadership qualities those departing veterans leave as a legacy. Last year, the Chiefs were the third youngest team in the league. This year, excluding what happens in Free Agency, they could be the youngest team in the league. That transition, along with a killer schedule, may make their record worse, yet they will ultimately be a better team as a result of going through the transition. 6/7/11 As it is with every other team in the NFL, the Chiefs have nothing going on except the occasional player-organized workouts. These have been organized by Cassel and attended by various receivers and running backs over the past few weeks. Aside from that, due to the labor impasse, there isn’t much to discuss. All of the fans are feed up with the whole dispute, regardless whose side they may have been on initially. A poll taken by a local radio station (albeit unscientific) suggests fans’ are into fading into apathy-mode. A large percentage of fringe-fans say they’ve lost interest. Others say that due to the nation’s economic issues, they can spend their highly-valued discretionary money other places. Many of the fans responded saying they were either directly or indirectly tied to revenue generated by the Chiefs or the NFL. Consequently, how could the fan renew season tickets, buy jerseys, etc. when the basis of their income (the Owners and Players) won’t come to some type of agreement over a $9B - $10B revenue stream? Long-time, hard core fans will come back. The NFL will have serious repair work to do to recapture the fringe fans and regenerate interest in the marginal-NFL business models like the NFL Network, the Draft, NFL Properties, etc. Now the league is looking at the possibility of cancelling or shortening the season. Even at this point, you’d have to question the quality of the product that could be fielded given the lack of Free Agency and OTA’s to this point. The whole thing is absolutely absurd! 5/5/11 The 2011 Chiefs’ Draft is not only difficult to assess, but difficult to determine whether you feel good or bad about it. Unlike the Draft of 2010 when everyone unanimously agreed the Chiefs had the best Draft, this year the assessments range from A- to C-. There are several reasons for the wide range of grades and feelings. Some of the “Pro’s” and “Con’s” are listed below. Preliminary grades are shown based on the value of the pick when made, the value of the player, team need, the “Pro’s” and “Con’s”.
1. Jon Baldwin - WR Pro – Freakish size, athleticism, huge hands, jumping ability, tremendous upside Con – Perceived “Prima Donna”, poor teammate, clubhouse cancer, lack of elite speed, off-field issues
Preliminary Grade – B
2. Rodney Hudson – C Pro – Strong, intelligent, athletic, technician, natural leader Con – Undersized
Preliminary Grade – A
3A. Justin Houston – OLB Pro - Big, strong, fast, powerful, pass rusher, great combine measurables Con – Underachiever, takes plays off, off-field issues
Preliminary Grade – B
3B. Allen Bailey – DL Pro – Extremely strong, solid character, great combine measurables, hard worker, highly motivated Con – Limited pass rushing skills, plays upright, not instinctive
Preliminary Grade – B
4. Jalil Brown – CB Pro - good size, good speed, mentally and physically tough, good feet and balance, Special Teamer Con - Lacks catch up speed, rigid, poor deep ball awareness
Preliminary Grade – A
5A. Ricky Stanzi – QB Pro – Great size, footwork, mechanics, leadership, toughness, competitive, pro-style ready Con – Needs more arm strength, improve defensive reads, exude/instill more confidence
Preliminary Grade – A
5B. Gabe Miller – OLB Pro – Athletic Con – Major reach – could have been acquired with a later pick or as a Free Agent
Preliminary Grade – F
6. Jerrel Powe – NT Pro – Prototypical NT build, strong, powerful, agile, loves contact Con – Takes plays off, weight concerns, limited range, suspect character
Preliminary Grade – A
7. Shane Bannon – FB Pro – Big, strong, tough, good hands, loves contact Con – Ivy League, minimal carries and catches, under the radar, possibly could have been signed as a Free Agent
Preliminary Grade – C
Overall preliminary grade – B
Now it’s on to both Free Agency phases, pro and collegiate. The Chiefs still need to add depth at NT, OT, TE, WR, RB and ILB. The collegiate Free Agent scenario is wide open. But there are several potential NFL Free Agents at positions the Chiefs could target to add depth and/or push the incumbents:
TE – Bo Scaife OT – Khalif Barnes, Alex Barron, Jamaal Brown OG – Trai Essex, Evan Mathis ILB – Kevin Burnett, Kirk Morrison NT – Anthony Hargrove
All are still relatively young in their respective careers and could be had for a reasonable price to add that depth and competition.
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