Chicago Bears Column
 

By: Dave Crippin 

 

12/12/10

Season Recap

6-3) Bears 27 Minn 13
Solid showing at home against the Vikes.  Defense only yields 1 TD.

7-3) Bears 16 Miami 0
Bears get a huge break in facing a Dolphin offense utterly decimated by injuries.

8-3) Bears 31, Philly 26
Another game that could have gone either way falls in the Bears’ favor.

9-3) Bears 24, Det 20
Bears manage the W in a dead-even game against a bad team.


Season Outlook

Well, I’m surprised.  I sure never imagined the Bears running the table on this quarter of games.  At the same time, I still have the same nagging skepticism most of the national media still has about the Bears.  The Viking game was a quality performance.  But Miami was a pure gift against a ridiculously crippled team.  Looking equal to Detroit doesn’t impress me any, either.  Playing even with the Eagles is a good job, though. 

They’re 6-2 in close games of 7 or fewer points this season.  You can attribute that to a slight superiority, great desire, or great coaching, but I really feel like it’s nothing more than luck.  Put them at 4-4 and you have a record that sounds more representative of who they are to me.

Another angle to the unexpected success of the team that no one’s talking about is that they’ve been unbelievably, amazingly healthy this year.  Look at the week-by-week injury reports and the Bears are nearly always doing significantly better than their opponent.  When a few games lost by your SLB (probably no better than 20th/22 if you were to rank how irreplaceable a position player is) is the biggest injury of the season, you know you’re doing phenomenally well.  That’s the sort of thing that gives a lesser team a surprise edge over slightly better teams experiencing a normal amount of injuries. 

That kind of luck you can’t expect to repeat from season to season.  But if they’re in great shape now, odds are they will continue to be in better shape than their opposition over the next few weeks.

In those next few weeks, the Bears will have the opportunity to lock up a bye and home-field through the playoffs in a very makeable best case scenario.  In a worst case, they could still very realistically lose to the 3 good teams they have in their next 4 games and fall all the way out of the playoffs.

I’m getting nowhere disbelieving in them so far, so I’ll guess 2-2 to finish out, a wildcard round win and a 2nd round loss.



11/14/10

Season Recap

4 –1) Bears 23, Carolina 6
Bear offense breaks off a few big runs early, then joins Carolina’s O in taking the remaining 3 quarters off.

4-2) Seattle 23, Bears 20
A handful of big plays from the Bears isn’t enough to salvage an otherwise lackluster performance.

4-3) Washington 17, Bears 14
Endless turnovers give this one away.

5-3) Bears 22, Buffalo 19
+2 edge on turnovers and Izzy’s PAT block tip another close game.

Season Outlook

Last time out I said the Bears weren’t nearly as good as 3-1 tied for conference lead made them sounds, but that they couldn’t possibly stumble too hard in the upcoming section with 2 winless teams on their schedule.  And so it went.  They beat the 2 bad teams, while losing to the 2 mediocre teams, leaving them 5-3, just missing the playoffs, if the season ended today.

It doesn’t, however.  And the second half is where we’re going to see what they’re really made of. 
So far, the teams the Bears have beaten are 10-31, while the teams they’ve lost to are 14-10.  That’s 10-26 and 11-10 (21-36 total), if you don’t count the games that involved the Bears.  The teams they are slated to face next are currently 35-28 total (not including games against the Bears). 

I can see them winning 3 or 4, but duplicating their 5-3 start – which is probably what the playoffs will require – looks improbable.


Mid-Term Grades

( ) contain contract years left after the 2010 season ends.  +1 shows RFA and +2 ERFA status after their current contract expires. Of course, after the lockout and new CBA, the number of years required for unrestricted free agency may be different.  PUP is the Physically Unable to Perform list, IR for Injured Reserve, and INJ is used for a player hampered by injury, but not on the preceding lists.  Bold denotes star players, Underline shows a solid starter, Normal for substandard starters to decent backups, and Italics for poor/raw/ST only players.

First grade is what I anticipated going into the season.  Second grade is what we’ve actually seen.


OL
Omiyale(2), CWilliams(2), Kreutz(FA), Garza(1), Webb(3)
EWilliams(?), Shaffer(1), Louis(2)
Asiata(PS), Marten(PS), Horn(PS)

After showing some positive signs in 09, Williams looks lost in 10.  Louis and Omiyale are pet projects that might not start for a single other team in the league.  Kreutz and Garza ought to be high on the To Replace list.
All in all, a breathtaking void of skill.  You get what you pay for, and we’ve got crap on a stick at OL.
D-
They’ve shuffled the lineup constantly, party out of need and partly out of desperation.  They still can’t run at all, but the sacks are slowing down a tiny bit.
D-

QB
Cutler(3), Collins(FA), Hanie(RFA)

Cutler’s 09 (and 10 preseason) numbers were decidedly below average, but I’m giving him some slack for such a bad line.  Collins was impressive the last time he actually got to play (2007) and looked really good in preseason for a guy with almost no preparation.
C+
His numbers are very average (16/32 QB ranking), but given what the poor guy has to work with, it’s not bad.
B

WR
Hester(3), Knox(2)
Aromashodu(FA), Bennett(1)
RDavis(FA)
Iglesias(PS), Barnes(PS)

An ordinary bunch that hopes to have worked out most of the growing pains.  The most noteworthy thing about them is that the best one is only 3rd on the depth chart.
C-
Knox has real potential, but still kills you with wrong/bad routes sometimes.  Hester to WR is officially a failure.  His returns have spiked greatly now that his receiver duty has declined.
C-

TE/WR/h-B
Olsen(1), KDavis(1)

Olsen and Davis are big wide receivers.  It will require skillful use to get the most out of what’s here.
B-
Olsen being utilized more than you’d expect from a Martz offense, but still not as much as in the past.
C+

HB
Forte(1), Taylor(3), Bell(ERFA), Wolfe(FA)
Unga(IR)

Forte and Taylor had nice preseasons.  If the run game were to return, that would be huge for the team.
B
Here’s a telling stat – Forte’s receiving yards are almost on a par with his rushing yards.
C+

FB/h-B/TE
Manumaleuna(4), Clark(FA)
Williams(PS)

Manu is a blocker who can’t catch.  Clark can catch out of the backfield as well as from anywhere else, but as a lead blocker…
C-
C-


DL
Idonije(1), Toeaina(RFA), AAdams(FA), Peppers(5)
Wootton(3), Harris(2), Harrison(1), Melton(2), Turner(?)

It’s up to Peppers and Harris to carry the load here.  Preseason pressure was nothing exciting.
C
Harris has lost his starting job.  Peppers’ scant 2 sacks might be saying more about his linemates than him, but it’s still saying bad things.
C-


LB
Tinoisamoa(FA), Urlacher(2), Briggs(3)
Roach(FA), Iwuh(FA), Wilson(FA)
Hillenmeyer(1-IR)
Johnson(PS)

As always, one of the strongest units on the team, but at a fairly unimpactful position.
B+
B+

S
Manning(FA), Wright(3-INJ)
Bullocks(FA), Harris(1)
Steltz(1)

Completely riddled by injuries in preseason.  Chris Harris showed awful tackling form and might have gotten himself cut, if they hadn’t just traded for him.
D+
Wright is just about a redshirt for the season at this point.  Harris’ tackling has been better.
C-

CB
Tillman(3), Jennings(1), Bowman(1), DJMoore(2), Graham(FA), JMoore(3)

Tillman a better stripper than Maurice Douglas, with 6 forced fumbles last year.  Bowman not yet as good as his 6 picks would suggest (just like Vasher was never the guy his 8 interception season made people think he was – except Bowman actually has the physical potential to get there), but he’s big and fast and coming along nicely.  It sounds like Graham will be the NB, at least initially, and I’m really looking forward to seeing him finally getting some playing time.
B-
Bowman got benched and Graham still never sees the field (on D).  But Tillman is steady and Jennings has filled in decently.
B

LS
Mannelly(FA)
K
Gould(3)
P
Maynard(FA)

KR
Knox, Manning
PR
Hester

Special teams really did not look good at all in the preseason – Gould missed kicks, Clark snapped wild while Mannelly was out, punts were blocked everywhere.  After years and years of consistent performance, I’m willing to give Toub and his crew the benefit of the doubt – but this is the first time in a long time that there is any doubt.
B-
Gould is a shade below usual.  Maynard having a definite down year.  Hester returning to form on punts.  Manning+Knox average on KOR.
B-


2011 Shopping List

Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed in.....Comment
 
1)…………T.……..1-2…………….Shaffer’s not young, Omiyale’s not the answer, Williams is regressing.
2) ………..G...….…2-4…………….No answers presenting themselves here, either.
3)…………C...……2-3……………. Kreutz an over-the-hill FA. 
4)………..LB....…...4-7…………….4 UFAs, plus Hillenmeyer may have to retire.
5)………..UT?..…..1-2……………..Harris won’t be around much longer.
6)…………S?....…..1-6..……..……FS still up in the air.  Manning and Bullocks are FAs.


Seriously, you could spend the R1 on a T, R2 on a C, R3 on a G, and still be looking for more starting lineman early in 2012.  Not that Angelo would ever invest half that much in the OL, anyway.  I don’t even want to think about what he’ll actually spend the picks on, after ignoring our direst needs yet again.


Ones to Watch

Instead of watching players who can’t block, you may want to observe some who can.  Ideally, a number of these would be Bears in 2011, but we all know how much Angelo values OL.

T
Joseph Barksdale, 6’5 315 5.0, LSU
Derrick Sherrod, 6’6 305 5.05, Miss St
Anthony Costanzo, 6’6 295 5.0, Boston College
    Finesse LT


Tackle is a real quandry.  Williams gets little push, so you’d like to complement him with a mauler, but he has looked much better on the right, so you’d like to draft a LT.  Regardless, expect the Bears to start Webb and Omiyale in 2011 and draft no one.

G

Mike Pouncey, 6’4 320 5.25, Florida
    Can play center
Benjamin Ijalana, 6’3 320 5.3, Villanova
John Moffitt, 6’4 320 5.15, Wisconsin
    Has also played center
Jason Pinkston, 6’4 305 5.2, Pittsburgh
    Will probably need to move inside.  Injury concerns.
Steve Schilling, 6’4 300 5.1, Michigan


C

Stefen Wisniewski, 6’3 300 5.15, Penn St
Kristofer O'Dowd, 6’4 300 5.1, USC
    Serious injury concerns



10/8/10

Season Recap

1-0) Bears 19 Lions 14
Lots of mixed signals.  Lions won, except for an offensively bad rule.  But Bears dominated game, except for turnovers and dumb decisions.  But Lions had to play without Stafford.

2-0) Bears 27 Cowboys 20
Culter outduels Romo in a shootout.

3-0) Bears 20 Packers 17
Bears benefit from a ton of Green Bay penalties and pull out a nail-biter.

3-1)  Giants 17, Bears 3
A solid performance by the defense, but a complete train wreck on offense.  10 sacks, 2 INT and 3 fumbles, 0-13 on 3rd down, and 2 QBs knocked out.  17-3 vastly understates how bad it was.


Déjà Vu

In 2009 the Bears rocketed out to a fast 3-1 start that had fans enthused and thinking big.  I wrote that their record was deceptive and they weren’t nearly that good.  Immediately after, the bottom fell out and they stumbled to a 7-9 mark.

In 2010 the Bears have rocketed out to a fast 3-1 start that has them tied for the NFC lead and…again, they just aren’t that good.  They’re 3-0 in close games, but have been blown out 1 out of 4 and blown someone else out 0/4 , and luck in the close ones can’t keep always going their way. 
The next quarter of the season includes two 0-4 teams, so nothing dramatic is likely to happen to their record anytime too soon.  But the third four opponents look average and the last four look rough.

They might only cool off a bit, and finish perhaps 7-5, which should be enough for a playoff berth.  On the other hand, I can’t say another full meltdown is out of the question.  They can’t run the ball at all, leaving them to pass constantly.  They’ve also given up a ton of sacks, which just led to Cutler and Collins both getting racked up in the same game.  With the new attention being given to head injuries, another concussion for Cutler would almost have to result in him being shut down for the season.  And (supposing he sits next week) that still leaves 11 games plus any playoffs to go.  How can he go that long behind a line like this and not get destroyed?

The Lovie Doghouse

When you think of The Bear Doghouse, what players come to mind fastest?

Probably Aromashodu and Corey Graham, possibly followed by Tommie.

Most people seem to be of the opinion that DA got benched for the drops. That doesn't seem quite right to me, since he had the drops week 1 and they benched him week 3. Also, when Hester drops, he doesn't get demoted. When Knox runs wrong routes (more in 2009), he didn't get benched (and they had 6 rostered receivers back then).
On the radio (don't recall who), I heard it hypothesized that DA wasn't really unpopular with the staff because of the drops, but because of his desire to play on the outside, and not in the slot.

That sounds a lot more believable to me, because it would explain why Graham constantly gets the shaft from Lovie, too (DJ getting more nickel time and private tutoring from Lovie and Jennings getting the call to replace Bowman). When the team was experimenting with Graham at safety, he said he was really more comfortable with corner.

It could also explain why they quit on 3rd rounder Gilbert so incredibly fast (yet still have lots of patience with a guy like Marcus Harrison).  Harrison seems not to have any complaints with being at UT or DT, but maybe Gilbert expressed frustration/displeasure at being bounced around?

    ----------------------------

Obviously, when it comes to position changes, the exact phrasing and specifics of having a preference make a world of difference.
"Well, I don't really think I'm as good at _____ as I am at ______, but if that's where the team needs me, I'll give it my best shot."
and
"I don't want to play _____"
come off very differently.

    -----------------------------

However, we know without a doubt that Lovie loves moving players around, particularly on defense.

And I think a lot of us have some real qualms about how much he does it:
Manning has played every position in the backfield now - 4 in 4 yrs, I think?
A 30 lbs change and annual flip for Izzy
Melton and Gilbert were moved this year, too
Actually, most of the safeties wind up playing both sides
Chris Williams from RT to LT, Garza from RG to LG, Omiyale from LG to RT to LT, all within a short span of time
etc

    -----------------------

So, all in all, I think
    a) He moves players around too much.
    b) Nobody likes a player who flatly refuses to try something new.  But if a player has tried something and it isn't working for them and the switching is really interfering with their development, that's important to know, and they really should be able to comfortably give their coach that feedback.  You should want to know a player feels uncomfortable and lost before sending them out and learning the hard way.
    c) I don't really have a lot of faith that what's happening behind the scenes that we aren't privy to is only a case of bad player attitudes and not a case of a stubborn coach not accepting feedback and re-evaluating his approach.

Oh, and d) Aromashodu - a tall, lanky speedster, whose hands need a little work in the slot?  What kind of crazy idea is that anyway?  He's a prototype SE.  The slot prototypes are a big, tough receiver who can catch well in traffic and/or a quick little darter - neither of which is him.


Roster
( ) contain contract years left after the 2010 season ends.  +1 shows RFA and +2 ERFA status after their current contract expires. Of course, after the lockout and new CBA, the number of years required for unrestricted free agency may be different.  PUP is the Physically Unable to Perform list, IR for Injured Reserve, and INJ is used for a player hampered by injury, but not on the preceding lists.  Bold denotes star players, Underline shows a solid starter, Normal for substandard starters to decent backups, and Italics for poor/raw/ST only players.

OL
CWilliams(2-INJ), Garza(1), Kreutz(FA), Louis(2-INJ), Omiyale(2)
Shaffer(1), Webb(3), EWilliams(?)
Asiata(PS), Marten(PS), Horn(PS)

QB
Cutler(3-INJ), Collins(FA), Hanie(RFA)

WR
Hester(3), Knox(2)
RDavis(FA), Bennett(1)
Aromashodu(FA)
Iglesias(PS), Matthews(PS)

TE/WR/h-B
Olsen(1), KDavis(1)

HB
Forte(1), Taylor(3), Bell(ERFA), Wolfe(FA)
Unga(IR)

FB/h-B/TE
Manumaleuna(4), Clark(FA)
Williams(PS)


DL
Idonije(1), Harris(2), AAdams(FA), Peppers(5)
Grant(FA), Harrison(1), Melton(2), Toeaina(RFA?), Wootton(3)
Turner(PS)

LB
Tinoisamoa(FA), Urlacher(2), Briggs(3)
Roach(FA), Iwuh(FA), Wilson(FA)
Hillenmeyer(1-IR)
Buggs(PS)

S
Manning(FA), Wright(3-INJ)
Bullocks(FA), Harris(1)
Steltz(1)

CB
Tillman(3), Jennings(1), Bowman(1), DJMoore(2), Graham(FA), JMoore(3)


LS
Mannelly(FA)
K
Gould(3)
P
Maynard(FA)

KR
Knox, Manning
PR
Hester


2011 Shopping List

Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed in.....Comment
 
1) ………..G...….…2-4…………….Unsurprisingly, the blocking continues to be atrocious.
2)…………C...……2-3……………. Kreutz an over-the-hill FA.  Beekman so bad, they cut him in favor of no one.
3)…………T.……..1-2…………….Shaffer’s not young and Omiyale’s not the answer.
4)………..LB....…...4-7…………….4 UFAs, plus Hillenmeyer may have to retire.
5)…………S?....…..1-6..……..……FS still up in the air.  Manning and Bullocks are FAs.


Seriously, you could spend the R1 on a T, R2 on a C, R3 on a G, and still be looking for another starting lineman early in 2012.  Not that Angelo would ever invest half that much in the OL, anyway.  I don’t even want to think about what he’ll actually spend the picks on, after ignoring our direst needs yet again.



9/8/10

Roster

( ) contain contract years left after the 2010 season ends.  +1 shows RFA and +2 ERFA status after their current contract expires. Of course, after the lockout and new CBA, the number of years required for free agency may be different.  PUP is the Physically Unable to Perform list, IR for Injured Reserve, and INJ is used for a player hampered by injury, but not on the preceding lists.  Bold denotes star players, Underline shows a solid starter, Normal for substandard starters to decent backups, and Italics for poor/raw/ST only players.

The grade is how I expect that unit to perform in 2010, relative to the rest of the NFL.

OL
CWilliams(2), Garza(1), Kreutz(FA), Louis(2), Omiyale(2)
Shaffer(1), Webb(3), Asiata(?)
EWilliams(PS), Marten(PS), Horn(PS)

After showing some positive signs in 09, Williams looks lost in 10.  Louis and Omiyale are pet projects that might not start for a single other team in the league.  Kreutz and Garza ought to be high on the To Replace list.
All in all, a breathtaking void of skill.  You get what you pay for, and we’ve got crap on a stick at OL.
D-

QB
Cutler(3), Collins(FA), Hanie(RFA-INJ)

Cutler’s 09 (and 10 preseason) numbers were decidedly below average, but I’m giving him some slack for such a bad line.  Collins was impressive the last time he actually got to play (2007) and looked really good in preseason for a guy with almost no preparation.
C+

WR
Hester(3), Knox(2)
Aromashodu(FA), RDavis(FA)
Bennett(1)
Iglesias(PS), Matthews(PS)

An ordinary bunch that hopes to have worked out most of the growing pains.  The most noteworthy thing about them is that the best one is only 3rd on the depth chart.
C-

TE
Manumaleuna(4), Olsen(1), KDavis(1)

Manu is a blocker who can’t catch, Olsen and Davis are big wide receivers.  It will require skillful usage to get the most out of what’s here.
B-

HB
Forte(1), Taylor(3), Wolfe(FA), Bell(ERFA)
Unga(IR)

Forte and Taylor had nice preseasons.  If the run game were to return, that would be huge for the team.
B

h-B/FB
Clark(FA)
Williams(PS)

Clark can catch out of the backfield as well as from anywhere else, but as a lead blocker…
C-

DL
Idonije(1), Harris(2), AAdams(FA), Peppers(5)
Anderson(FA), Harrison(1), Melton(2), Toeaina(RFA?), Wootton(3)
Turner(PS)

It’s up to Peppers and Harris to carry the load here.  Preseason pressure was nothing exciting.
C

LB
Tinoisamoa(FA), Urlacher(2), Briggs(3)
Roach(FA-INJ), Hillenmeyer(1), Iwuh(FA)

As always, one of the strongest units on the team, but at a fairly unimpactful position.
B+

S
Manning(FA), Harris(1)
Steltz(1-INJ), Bullocks(FA)
Wright(3-INJ)

Completely riddled by injuries in preseason.  Chris Harris showed awful tackling form and might have gotten himself cut, if they hadn’t just traded for him.
D+

CB
Tillman(3), Bowman(1), Graham(FA), Jennings(1), DJMoore(2), JMoore(3)

Tillman a better stripper than Maurice Douglas, with 6 forced fumbles last year.  Bowman not yet as good as his 6 picks would suggest (just like Vasher was never the guy his 8 interception season made people think he was – except Bowman actually has the physical potential to get there), but he’s big and fast and coming along nicely.  It sounds like Graham will be the NB, at least initially, and I’m really looking forward to seeing him finally getting some playing time.
B-

LS
Mannelly(FA)
K
Gould(3)
P
Maynard(FA)

KR
Knox, Manning
PR
Hester

Special teams really did not look good at all in the preseason – Gould missed kicks, Clark snapped wild while Mannelly was out, punts were blocked everywhere.  After years and years of consistent performance, I’m willing to give Toub and his crew the benefit of the doubt – but this is the first time in a long time that there is any doubt.
B-


Roster Moves

Beekman played so poorly, he got cut, even though there’s no other true center on the roster.  Bears decided to go with Garza for emergencies and Edwin Williams (from the Skins) on the PS.
LeFevour got sent to the PS, but was quickly stolen after he had a terrific game 3.
I was shocked twice about Iglesias – once that they cut him and again when no one picked him up.
At RB they kept four, which is really unnecessary.  Who would steal Bell off the PS?
They also kept 6 CBs, instead of trying to send Josh Moore to the PS.
Those extras meant no 7th spot for ST ace Tim Shaw.
On the DL, Toeaina pulled the upset by edging Gilbert.  Don’t understand giving up on him so quickly. 


Season Outlook

Going 0-4 in the preseason to 3 bad teams isn’t a good sign.  Die-hards like to try and rationalize that bad preseason records don’t matter.  This is true – for teams that were good the previous year.  Teams that were bad try hard to get some momentum, rhythm, and confidence, which this team failed at with flying colors.

Two columns ago (scroll down), I named five major problems the Bears had last year.  In the preseason the pass rush looked no better, the safeties showed no improvement, and the blocking looked no better.  Interceptions weren’t an issue, but they only happen about once every 30 passes and that’s about how many Cutler threw in the whole preseason, so that’s no more than a minor sign.
The overall rushing numbers were terrible, but looking at Forte and Taylor only is encouraging.

All in all, this appears to be mostly the same team that was lucky to win 7 in 2009.  There are just a few slivers of hope for the 2010 Bears.  One is the aforementioned rushing game.  If we can actually run this year, that will take some major pressure off Cutler.  The second is that Manumaleuna is just now coming back, and he’s supposed to be a major factor in stabilizing the blocking.  Lastly, Martz’s system is new to everyone and the OL has endured major shuffling, so they may improve as the season goes on (although that’s what we said about the OL last year, too…).

6-9 wins looks about right to me.  I’m torn between 7 and 8, but I guess I’ll take 7.

The Bigger Picture

The longer-term picture for the Bears is pretty bleak, though. 

Suppose 2010 goes nowhere, which is fairly likely. 
Talk is that no teams will be changing coaches before the 2011 lockout season, a) because no one wants to pay two coaching staffs, when there won’t be any players to coach, and/or b) because all the off-season camps, workouts, and preseason are going to be wiped out, and a new coach wouldn’t have any time to teach players their new system.  So that means Lovie and Jerry would be back for a lame duck, probably shortened, possibly played with replacement players, 2011 season.
If those two years play out as expected, the front-runner for the Bears HC job in 2012 is Bill Cowher.  Besides needing 4 OL starters, he’d need a good 3 or 4 front seven players (at least) to transition to a 3-4 defense.  That’s a minimum of two years worth of rebuilding.
So this scenario would consist of about 4 more years of futility tacked onto the team’s current streak of 3 years with no playoffs.

And that doesn’t even factor in potential chaos and change of plans from team matriarch Virginia Halas dying, whenever that may occur. 


2011 Shopping List

Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed in.....Comment
 
1) ………..G...….…2-4…………….Unsurprisingly, the blocking continues to be atrocious.
2)…………C...……2-3……………. Kreutz an over-the-hill FA.  Beekman so bad, they cut him in favor of no one.
3)…………T.……..1-2…………….Shaffer’s not young and Omiyale’s not the answer.
4)…………S?....…..1-6..……..……Both positions are still up in the air.  Manning and Bullocks are FAs.
5)………..LB....…...4-7…………...3 UFAs

Seriously, you could spend the R1 on a T, R2 on a C, R3 on a G, and still be looking for another starting lineman early in 2012.  Not that Angelo would ever invest half that much in the OL, anyway.  I don’t even want to think about what he’ll actually spend the picks on, after ignoring our direst needs yet again.



9/1/10

Numbers Game

* indicates players believed to be PS eligible and realistic candidates (high draft picks would be quickly stolen)
 
OL (8-9)
Yes: CWilliams, Kreutz, Garza, Shaffer, Omiyale, Louis*
Maybe: Beekman, Marten, Webb*, Asiata*
No: Horn*, Walter*

The choices seemed obvious a few months ago, but Asiata and Webb are getting lots of attention.

QB (2-3)
Yes: Cutler, Hanie(inj)
Maybe: Collins, LeFevour*

Were going to only keep 2, but Hanie’s injury has clouded things.

WR (5-6)
Yes: Hester, Knox, Aromashodu, RDavis, Bennett(inj)
Maybe: Iglesias*
No: Matthews*, Barnes*

Iglesias will sweat a little, as injuries at QB, LB, S, and TE could force them to steal a slot from WR. He’s not likely to last on the PS, though.

TE (3-4)
Yes: Manumaleuna(inj), Olsen, KDavis
Maybe: Angulo

I think Manu may start as the typical Martz 6th offensive lineman, while most of the others sometimes play as a 2nd TE, sometimes as an h-B. Angulo could squeeze in if Martz wants a second big blocker, especially while Manu continues to heal.

HB (3-4)
Yes: Forte, Taylor
Maybe: Bell*, Wolfe
No: Minor*

Fewer FBs could mean an extra HB, but I doubt it. I expected to see Wolfe in for his ST contributions and Bell back to the PS, but Bell seems to be favored, even though neither has done anything in the preseason.

h-B/FB (1-2)
Yes: Clark
Maybe: EWilliams*
No: Unga(IR)
 
 
DL (9)
Yes: Peppers, Idonije, THarris, Adams, Gilbert
Maybe: Wootton*, Anderson, Harrison, Melton*, Toeaina*
No: Turner*, MWilliams*

One person has to go. Since Toeaina is the only one not likely to be stolen off the PS, it will probably be him again.

LB (6-7)
Yes: Urlacher(inj), Briggs(inj), Tinoisamoa, Roach(inj), Hillenmeyer
Maybe: Iwuh, Shaw
No: Malast*

They really like them all, but 7 is a luxury, injuries or not.

S (5)
Yes: CHarris, Manning, Wright(inj)
Maybe: Bullocks(inj), Afalava, Steltz(inj)
No: Scott*, Webster*

If Steltz goes to IR, this becomes easy. If not, Afalava could go from full-season starter to cut.

CB (5)
Yes: Tillman, Bowman, Graham
Maybe: Jennings, JMoore*, DJMoore*
No: Turenne*, Brown*

Heated battle for backup spots. Six is too many, even though all 3 cut candidates are recent acquisitions of a moderate investment.

LS (1)
Yes: Mannelly
K (1)
Yes: Gould
P (1)
Maybe: Maynard
 

In the end, I think 8 OL, 2 QB, 5 WR, 3 TE, 3 HB, 1 FB, 9 DL, 6 LB, 5 S, 5 CB, 3 ST are a lock.
That leaves 3 more ‘at-large’ spots to go around to wherever injuries or a player they can’t bear to part with dictate.
I’m going to say QB, WR, and LB get the 3 extras, at least to open the season.

 

8/13/10

Handicapping the Roster

* indicates players believed to be PS eligible and realistic candidates (high draft picks would be quickly stolen)

OL (8-9)
Yes: CWilliams, Kreutz, Garza, Shaffer, Omiyale, Beekman
Maybe: Asiata*, Louis*, Webb*, Marten
No: Horn*, Vance*, Walter*

The unusually low ‘8’ has always been Lovie’s magic number.  Could Tice successfully lobby for a typical 9?  The choices seemed obvious a few months ago, but Asiata and Webb are getting lots of attention. 

QB (2-3)
Yes: Cutler, Hanie
Maybe: LeFevour*

Strong probability of going with only 2 again.

WR (6)
Yes: Hester, Knox, Aromashodu, RDavis, Bennett, Iglesias
No: Peterman*, Matthews*, Barnes*, Markshausen*

How they divide playing time will be interesting, but not who makes it.

TE (3-4)
Yes: Manumaleuna(inj), Olsen
Maybe: KDavis, Clark, Angulo

What Martz intends to do with TE/FB is still murky.  I think Manu may start as the typical Martz 6th offensive lineman, while the other 3 sometimes play as a 2nd TE, sometimes as an h-B.
Clark doesn’t have much long-term left, but in a win-now desperation season, he’s probably too versatile (best-rounded TE on the squad) and valuable (backup long-snapper, probably emergency 3rd QB) to go.  Angulo could squeeze in if Martz wants another bigger OL-type blocker, though.

HB (3-4)
Yes: Forte, Taylor
Maybe: Bell*, Wolfe
No: Minor*

Fewer FBs could mean an extra HB, but I doubt it.  Probably go to a TE.  I expected to see Wolfe in for his ST contributions and Bell back to the PS, but Bell is making it tough.

FB/h-B (0-2)
Maybe: Ta’ufo’ou*, Williams*
No: Unga(IR)

Cutting McKie, but adding Williams sent a really confusing message.  If just McKie went, you’d know Martz didn’t want a traditional FB.  If McKie went and a vet FB was added or a top rookie was drafted, you’d know McKie just wasn’t Martz’s type.  But why cut a vet FB and add a nobody with 0 career snaps?  Does the position matter to you, or doesn’t it?
My best guess is they keep 1 FB for goal line/short yardage, one on the PS in case of injury, and use an extra TE/WR/h-B the rest of the time.


DL (9)
Yes: Peppers, Idonije, Harris, Adams, Gilbert
Maybe: Wootton*, Anderson, Harrison, Toeaina*, Melton*
No: Turner*, Evans*, Williams*

Typical high number of defensive linemen expected.  Wootton has looked healthy and good so far.  In the annual Lovie ‘lets screw up our lineman’ shuffle, Idonije and Gilbert have moved from DT to DE and Melton has moved from DE to DT.

LB (6-7)
Yes: Urlacher, Briggs
Maybe: Tinoisamoa, Hillenmeyer, Roach, Shaw, Malast*, Iwuh(inj), Mayberry*

S (5)
Yes: Harris(inj), Manning, Wright(inj)
Maybe: Steltz, Bullocks, Afalava
No: Scott*

After starting all of last season as a rookie, Afalava is now all the way down to 7th on the depth chart.  ‘Talent evaluation’ gets awfully random around here, sometimes.

CB (5)
Yes: Tillman, Bowman, Graham
Maybe: JMoore*, DJMoore*, Jennings, Turenne*
No: Brown*

Lots of roster battling here.

LS (1)
Yes: Mannelly
K (1)
Yes: Gould
P (1)
Maybe: Maynard


Questions and Answers

A review of what went wrong last year and what the team did to address it.

Problem: Pitiful pass rush (Ogunleye led the team with 6.5 sacks).
Solution: Acquired Julius Peppers, who averages double-digit sacks and has 10+ 5 of the last 6 years.
Odds: Sounds great.  But they had to get rid of Ogunleye (6.5) AND Alex Brown (6) to finance it, which will force Idonije or Anderson into the starting lineup opposite Peppers.  Could really backfire (at least in 2010), unless one of them steps up.

Problem: Horrible safety play.
Solution: Added Chris Harris and Major Wright.
Odds: Both have potential to be solid…but both are barely participating with injuries.  Looks like a decent plan, which might be thwarted by bad luck.

Problem: Awful rushing numbers.
Solution: Get a real backup, for a change (Chester Taylor), and hope Forte is healthy.
Odds: Looks good – assuming Forte hasn’t been permanently diminished from 2 years of overwork and 1 year of playing hurt.

Problem: Too many interceptions.
Solution: A new offense.
Odds: Could happen, but things are not clicking well yet.

Problem: Terrible blocking.
Solution: Take (career starter) Shaeffer out of the lineup, move Omiyale to a more important position, insert either a 7th round (Louis) or undrafted (Asiata) G.
Odds: Longer than the late Manute Bol’s inseam.

Misc

QB Brent Basanez was released with an injury.  His PS eligibility was used up, so he was facing long odds.  LeFevour was presumably drafted to fill that role.  Ex-R6 Mike Teel got a look and quick release, leaving LeFevour uncontested.

Lovie Smith’s quote about ‘this guy always having a roster spot while I’m around’ notwithstanding, HB Adrian Peterson is done as a Bear.  In spite of measuring slow and a little small, this 6th rounder put together an 8 yr career, and leaves with a 4+ ypc average.  An understandable ‘cut’, but it’s too bad there’s been no notice of his departure.

FA Brian Iwuh was added to fill out the LB corps after Jamar Williams was traded away.  He’s mostly known as a ST demon.