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Fantasy Rookie Rankings

Quarterbacks:

1) Alex Smith - San Francisco 49ers

- Alex Smith was the first pick in last April's NFL Draft and looks to be the favorite for the starting quarterback spot with the 49ers.  While he may be the "best" option as far as fantasy stats go for rookie quarterbacks, he isn't necessarily a good play, at least not for the first half of the season.  Smith doesn't have much talent at the wide receiver position, although tight end Eric Johnson will provides a strong target.  Expect Smith to look to Johnson early and often as he gets his feet wet in the NFL.  None of the QBs in this class deserve to be picked early.

 

2) Andrew Walter - Oakland Raiders

- Kerry Collins is the clear starting quarterback for the Raiders, but should he go down, you would be wise to jump all over Walter who would be a better option than Tuiasosopo as his replacement.  Walter has a big arm and could put up huge numbers in a fairly simply offense which would be little more than throwing the ball downfield to Moss and Porter.  LaMont Jordan (starting RB) also possesses good hands and could turn into a threat out of the backfield.  Walter isn't worth drafting, but if he's in a position to start, you should seriously consider him.

 

3) Jason Campbell - Washington Redskins

- We're talking about Dan Snyder and the Washington Redskins here, so anything's possible, even Campbell getting the starting nod in game 1 (it's extremely unlikely, but wouldn't be the strangest move that the Redskins have made in past years).  Campbell is a smart passer with good accuracy and touch on throws in the short to intermediate range.  He's also a threat to run and has the speed to make plays on the ground.   Patrick Ramsey is the likely starter, but you can expect Campbell to get his fair share of time under center later on this season. 

 

4) Charlie Frye - Cleveland Browns

- I'll be the first to admit that the Trent Dilfer signing never made a whole lot of sense to me.  He's the kind of quarterback who can manage games, but the Browns need a quarterback who can win games for them.  Dilfer may be a safe starter, but he's not that guy.  Expect the Browns to go with Frye once they're out of contention this season in order to shorting his learning curve.  Just don't expect him to put up big numbers for you.

 

5) Adrian McPherson - New Orleans Saints

- The Saints feel like they got a real steal in the middle of the fifth round with McPherson and we tend to agree.  While it would be ideal to keep Adrian on the bench for a year and a half or so, Aaron Brooks is anything but reliable and if this team is out of contention, the smart play could be to go to McPherson.  Playing in the AFL last season, he showed real poise and maturity under center while putting up monster numbers for anyone in that league, none the less a kid as young as he is.  He combines a strong arm with running back speed.

Adrian McPherson - QB

 

Running Backs

1) Ronnie Brown - Miami Dolphins

- Brown is a strange player in the sense that he's going to be starting for the first time since high school and it's in the NFL, rather than in college.  He's a big back with exceptional speed and solid hands.  I think that Brown's more vulnerable to the rookie wall than most due to the fact that he's never had a season where he took all that much of a pounding.  I'd predict that he starts the season very strong, but look for a little valley, production wise after week 9 or 10.  If Ricky Williams can make a successful comeback, it would really help Ronnie out.

 

 

2) Carnell Williams - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

- Williams comes into a good spot here in that he has second year stud Mike Clayton and a solid passing game to take pressure off of him.  Having added 15 pounds since he played for Auburn, Williams is ready to handle the load for the Bucs this season.  A slashing runner, look for the team to get Williams involved in the passing game as well.  He's got to be an early offensive rookie of the year favorite.

 

 

3) Cedric Benson - Chicago Bears

- I was tempted to drop Benson below Arrington due to whispers that Cedric's holdout could be a long one.  Benson is an Emmitt Smith type of runner who is fearless between the tackles and hits the hole quickly.  One thing that could work against Benson is the fact that the Bears passing game will struggle to achieve the level of average.  Right now they have unproven players in Rex Grossman and Bobby Wade in the starting lineup.  Granted they did bring Mushin Muhammad to start opposite Wade, but a year older, and in this offense he won't come close to his numbers from last season. 

 

 

4) J.J. Arrington - Arizona Cardinals

- Arrington is the "in" pick for offensive rookie of the year right.  He's got little to no competition for the spot (I know Shipp's coming back from an injury, and I stick to my previous statement) and should get tons of playtime early.  He does have a number of things going against him however.  Arrington isn't built like an everydown back and right now the Cardinals offensive line looks downright awful, which has the potential to ruin the entire offense.  Quarterback Kurt Warner looks to return to form after a few forgettable seasons, but considering the weakness of the offensive line, it's fair to expect that he'll get hit early and often.  When that happens, Warner tends to crumble.  If teams can key in on Arrington, he'll struggle.

 

 

5) Frank Gore - San Francisco 49ers

- Personally I don't understand the move myself, but it looks like the 49ers are serious about giving Gore a real shot at the starting running back position to start the season.  Maybe they haven't heard about the devastating knee injuries which Gore suffered that took away most of his speed, I don't know.  2 injuries ago Gore looked to be on his way to becoming one of the best running backs in college football.  Maybe he's past the injuries now and perhaps he'll return to his old form.

 

 

Wide Receivers

1) Troy Williamson - Minnesota Vikings

- Williamson is in a great position to come in and make a huge impact off the bat.  He's a speed guy, thrust into an offense that will give him ample opportunities to make plays down the field.  Troy should get every chance to start from the first day of camp and if he develops chemistry quickly with quarterback Daunte Culpepper he should rack up the yards this season.

 

 

2) Mark Clayton - Baltimore Ravens

- Clayton is the most polished of the rookie receivers this year and while he's currently behind a number of players on the depth chart there's no reason to believe that he won't work his way up to at least #3 fairly quickly, possibly #2, depending on how Clarence Moore plays during training camp and in the pre-season.  Clayton is a smooth route runner who catches the ball cleanly and excels after the catch.

 

 

3) Braylon Edwards - Cleveland Browns

- Edwards should probably be higher on this list, but the fact is there's a number of things working against him coming into this season.  First of all, he's playing with a so-so quarterback in Trent Dilfer, without Kellen Wilslow Jr., behind an average offensive line, and has only an average-ish running game to occupy the defense.  The moment he was drafted Edwards became the best player on the offense and a target for other teams.  Taking all these factors into consideration, it's not fair to expect huge numbers from Edwards this season.

 

 

4) Mike Williams - Detroit Lions

- Where Braylon Edwards could see his production suffer from having to few weapons around him, Williams could see his production suffer from having to many offensive standouts around him.  2004 rookies Roy Williams and Kevin Jones look to take their games to the next level this season and 2003 rookie Charlie Rogers is hoping to bounce back from a pair of shoulder injuries.  With all that said, Williams is an exceptional redzone option and will certainly see his fair share of balls.

 

 

5) Mark Bradley - Chicago Bears

- No self-respecting NFL team should be willing to go into the season with Bobby Wade as a starting wide receiver.  Bradley was overlooked playing with Mark Clayton and Travis Wilson at Oklahoma, but certainly has the physical tools to make it in the NFL.  He's a strong receiver with above average speed and good body control.  He probably won't start right away, but look for him to crack the line-up before to long.

 

 

Tight Ends

1) Heath Miller - Pittsburgh Steelers

- The Steelers lost Plaxico Burress to the Giants this off-season and that didn't effect anyone more-so than Ben Roethlisberger.  Burress was Ben's go-to guy last season and now look for Miller to fill that void.  Miller has very good hands and above average speed at the tight end position.  He excels at finding soft spots in the defense and making himself a big target.  There's no better friend to a young quarterback than smart, pass catching tight end, and Miller is just that. 

 

 

2) Alex Smith - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

- From a potential fantasy perspective, there is a huge drop-off right after Heath Miller.  Smith is the next best option, but he'll start the season on the bench as free agent acquisition Anthony Becht starts at tight end for the Buccaneers.  Look for Smith to get his fair share of playtime in obvious passing situations as he's a considerably better receiving option than is Becht.

 

 

3) Joel Dreessen - New York Jets

- We're going deep into the sleepers list here with Dreessen.  Joel is an accomplished receiver, but is playing behind a guy (Doug Jolley) that the team gave up a high draft pick to acquire.  If Jolley goes down, Dreessen could step right in without missing a beat.  But only pick him up if Jolley's hurt.

 

 

Defensive Line

1) David Pollack - Cincinnati Bengals

- It looks like the Bengals are planning on playing the former Georgia standout at outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense, but they also have the ability to shift him to defensive end when they're running a conventional 4-3.  Pollack is a high motor playing who holds up pretty well against the run, but specializes in getting to the quarterback.  This is a risky move because of the transition he has to make, but there's no one else worth slotting here.

 

2) Erasmus James - Minnesota Vikings

- You'd have to think that it's not going to take James very long to overtake Darrion Scott for the starting spot at right defensive end.  James is a pass rushing terror who should get to the quarterback a good amount as a rookie.  The one thing you have to worry about is James' history of letting mild injuries nag him all season.  He's the definition of a risk-reward player.

 

 

3) Marcus Spears - Dallas Cowboys

- Things are getting a little short here.  Spears looks to start at defensive end in the Cowboys new 3-4 defense.  Historically, 3-4 defensive ends are run stuffers whose job is to keep offensive lineman off of their linebackers.  With that said, Spears has a chance to rack up a few sacks and a decent amount of tackles from his down-lineman spot.

 

 

Linebackers

1) DeMarcus Ware - Dallas Cowboys

- DeMarcus Ware was born to play the rush linebacker position in a 3-4 defense.  He combines good speed and power with an uncanny ability to get to the quarterback and make plays in the backfield.  3-4 outside linebackers have a shorter learning curve than other positions because they're duties are pretty cut and dry; get into the backfield and disrupt the opposing offense.  This was an exceptional pick for the Cowboys and look for big numbers from Ware this season.

 

 

2) Derrick Johnson - Kansas City Chiefs

- The multi-talented Derrick Johnson is in a good position with the Chiefs, in that they're willing to turn him loose and let him make plays.  He's an exceptional athlete who can play the pass and make plays behind the line of scrimmage.  Look for the defensive rookie of the year battle to come down to a two man race between Derrick Johnson and DeMarcus Ware. 

 

 

3) Shawne Merriman - San Diego Chargers

- Yet another 3-4 outside linebacker here with Merriman.  A very good athlete, Shawne has the skills to make an impact at the National Football League level.  He won't add much in coverage and he's more suited to go after the quarterback.  He'll run very hot and cold as a rookie, looking like an All-Pro one game and then looking lost the next. 

 

 

4) Kevin Burnett - Tennessee Titans

- It seems like every other player on this list is a member of the Dallas Cowboys' rookie class.  Burnett is more NFL ready then most of the players on this list.  He's a student of the game who should come in and compete for an inside linebacker position right away, although he has the ability to play anywhere on the line.  At ILB he'd be a tackling machine.

 

 

5) Darryl Blackstock - Arizona Cardinals

- Blackstock, more than any other player on this list, is a real boom or bust guy.  He played linebacker in a 3-4 defense at Virginia and now has to switch to a 4-3 defense.  He's got only James Darling in front of him, so look for Darryl to get on the field very early in his career.  Like some of the others here, Blackstock won't offer much in pass coverage, but he has the skills to make an impact if he's turned loose after the QB.

 

 

Defensive Backs

1) Thomas Davis - Carolina Panthers

- Davis is a versatile player who can play either outside linebacker or strong safety for the Panthers.  In fact, he should see time in both positions in different packages.  You can expect solid tackle numbers right away and a surprising amount of interceptions due to the level of the players around him.

 

 

2) Carlos Rogers - Washington Redskins

- Carlos is the most polished of the rookie cornerbacks and should start from the first day he's at camp.  He has very good speed and ball skills, as well as a willingness to get up and make a tackle in the open field.  It's not out of the question that he'll put up numbers similar to Dunta Robinson last season.

 

 

3) Adam "Pac Man" Jones - Tennessee Titans

- Jones was one of the three fastest players in this year's draft class and he uses that speed well on the field.  Adam has smooth hips that allow him to stick with wide receivers.  He's prone to overplaying and gambling on balls in hopes of making a big play, which is bad in the real world, but helps to increase fantasy numbers, as long as the team keeps him on the field.

 

 

4) Justin Miller - New York Jets

- Miller is currently listed as the top back-up at the Jets right cornerback position and it's fair to assume that he'll see a decent amount of time on the field this season in nickel and dime packages.  What adds to Miller's value are his skills in the return game.  He's dangerous as both a kick and punt returner.

 

 

5) Brodney Poole - Cleveland Browns

- Poole is a safety by trade but the Browns are giving him a look at cornerback as well.  He's a tall player with good ball skills and above average make-up speed.  He catches the ball well for a defensive back and times his jumps well.  Any rookie defensive back will be a gamble, but he should produce a bit.

 

 

Kickers

1) Mike Nugent - New York Jets

- The Jets thought enough of Nugent to take him in the early part of the second round of the draft.  Nugent combines good leg strength with very good accuracy and has a reputation for not allowing his nerves to get the best of him, which could be the thing seperates him from last year's highest drafted kicker (and mild bust) Nate Keading of the San Diego Chargers.

 

 

 

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