5/2/08

The picks are in so it's time for some analysis.

Choosing Jake Long with the first overall pick came as a surprise to no one as he had been inked to a deal several days prior to the draft. Jake Long was the safest pick for a need position and immediately upgrades the tackle position, with Vernon Carey moving to the right side. Provided Miami likes Carey at RT, the Dolphins have their bookend tackles for years to come.

Picking Jake Long had another effect. Eight offensive linemen went in the first round. Not only did the Dolphins get the consensus best tackle in the draft, but a run on the position left some good talent on the board at other positions for the second round.

In the second round, Miami lucked out when they found Phillip Merling on the board. Merling is a first round talent with great size and and a great motor. He will have to bulk up a bit to play end in the 3-4, but his frame should allow him to easily add 10 to 15 pounds. The other second round pick was Chad Henne, who was widely rumored to be the Dolphins target with the number 32 pick. Luckily, Miami stuck to their board, and didn't reach for a QB. With Brian Brohm still available, and Atlanta and Baltimore out of the market, the Dolphins watched as Henne fell into their laps with the number 57 pick. Henne is a strong armed pocket passer. Though he has a few flaws in his game (limited mobility, unexceptional footwork, and locks on his target) he should be able to break the last two habits and provide competition to Beck and McCown. I wouldn't expect him to start this year, but he should challenge for the job in 2009.

In the third round, some top shelf talent was still on the board, so I was a little puzzled when Miami chose to pass over LB Dan Connor to pick the unheralded Kendall Langford from Hampton. When you think about a Parcells draft though, that means the addition of a lot of big guys up front, and the pick of the 6'5" 290ish  DE Langford certainly fits that bill. He's a bit of a project player, but his frame and run stuffing abilities make him ideal for a 3-4 end, or a move to NT with a bit more weight and training. The additions of Langford and Merling give the defense a big youth infusion on the front lines, and should lead to a nastier demeanor in the defense.

In the later rounds two guards were added, Shawn Murphy in the fourth and Donald Thomas in the sixth, to increase depth and competition for the LG spot. Two running backs were added in the sixth, Jalen Parmele and Lex Hilliard, to add depth. Hilliard may also get a shot at fullback to add some versatility. Lionel Dotson, a DT was the final pick in the seventh to add more bulk to the already beefed up lines.

In other news, Lorenzo Booker was shipped off (he isn't the type of back valued in Miami's current system) for the fourth round pick that turned out to be Shawn Murphy, and the Dolphins original fourth was traded to Dallas for TE Anthony Fasano and LB Akin Ayodele. Fasano will get the opportunity to beat out David Martin for the tight end position, while Ayodele brings a lot of experience to the competition for middle linebacker.

Overall, Miami has helped themselves quite a bit on draft weekend. Both lines will be bigger and more physical, which are the building blocks of a Parcells built team. With so many positions in contention, it will certainly be a fun training camp to watch.
 

4/3/08

There have been numerous possibilities put forth for the first pick in the draft. As Miami may not be able to trade the pick, we'll start with a look at the top candidates.

Ryan Clady is the biggest dark horse pick. Let's start with the positives. Clady looks like he'll be a very good pro, with everything you look for in a left tackle. He has excellent size and quickness, and is a very good pass protector. The negatives are that he has only average run blocking and strength. He is also not the best tackle in the draft. If the Dolphins signed him prior to the draft for less money than usual, it might happen, but it's highly unlikely.

The next two possibilities are Glenn Dorsey and Sedrick Ellis. Both are skilled defensive tackles in a 4-3. The problem with either as the Dolphins top selection is that Miami is going to play a 3-4. A transition to end in a 3-4 is possible, but with Jason Ferguson in the middle, and Vonnie Holliday and Randy Starks likely to play end, the position is not a need this year.

Darren McFadden might be the best prospect in the draft. He also plays the one position that the Dolphins don't want to use a top selection on. The running back class is very deep this year, and they also tend to have the shortest career of any position. His workouts have helped him, but Miami's immediate needs at other positions outweigh the addition of another potential star RB.

Vernon Gholston is this years workout warrior, and has started to move up draft charts. He is an incredible athlete, and his combine numbers were excellent. He figures to play OLB in a 3-4. The main problem with Gholston is that he's more of an athlete than a football player. At times, he looks dominant; at times, he disappears. Chris Long, who figures to play the same position, looks like a safer pick at this point.

Matt Ryan is in the discussion due only to his position. Quarterback is the most important position on a team, and the Dolphins need help. I can also honestly say that he's the one player I don't want with the first pick. There are many reasons. First is the enormous cost of drafting a first pick QB, and the strong possibility of a bust. More importantly is that Ryan is not a significantly better prospect, if at all, than the guys behind him. His arm strength is average, his accuracy isn't great, he makes some questionable decisions with the ball, and isn't very mobile. To his credit, he has great intangibles and ideal size, but I believe him to be over-hyped. Ryan benefited from a great season by Boston College while Brian Brohm and Chad Henne suffered mostly due to poor defensive performances from their teams. I think Ryan could make a decent pro, but I'd rather have either Brohm or Henne in the second round than Ryan in the first.

That leaves us with two prospects to go; the Long boys. Both are considered "safe" picks, and excellent football players. For all that Chris Long is advertised as a high effort guy, he's also an outstanding athlete with great size. He looks to make a move to the outside in a 3-4, but he's played in the system before. Jake Long is the top offensive tackle prospect. He's a mauler in the running game and an effective pass blocker and possesses excellent size and strength. Both Longs dominated at their respective positions, and either would be a good addition to the team. Personally though, I would have to go with Jake. Miami has a huge hole on the offensive line, while OLB looks to be set as long as Parcells doesn't trade Jason Taylor. Offensive Tackle is also a position that tends to have long careers. Also, the odds of busting on the top ranked tackle prospect are low. If the Dolphins stay at the top, look for them to go Long, either way.
 

3/25/08

The last section of the defense that we need to look at is the secondary. To look only at the numbers would be misleading. The Dolphins gave up only 188.7 yards per game through the air, ranking them 4th in the NFL. The problem with this number is that teams didn't need to pass to win against Miami due to the Dolphins worst in league rush defense. The secondary also managed only 9 interceptions. The worst part is that Miami also proved insufficient at consistently stopping teams on 3rd and long. While this can partly be laid on the lack of pressure up front, the secondary carries some of the blame.

Lets start with the Cornerback position. Will Allen is a good defender, but he's not an elite defender. He does a decent job of covering his man, even so far as to make one sportswriter's Pro Bowl list. The main knock on Will Allen is his lack of interceptions. Through 7 seasons, he's only come away with the ball 10 times, including only one last year. He plays well, but is not a game changer. Michael Lehan, Travis Daniels, and Andre Goodman were among the three other cornerbacks used last year. All are more suited for backup roles. Lehan was resigned and will probably be a starter next year, Daniels may move to safety, and Goodman should be a backup/nickel.

Safety was a mess in 2007. Yeremiah Bell, the starting strong safety, went down for the year after week 1. Renaldo Hill, the starting free safety, went to the IR in October. Donovan Darius started, then was cut, Cameron Worrell was regularly victimized before ending up on IR. Traveres Tillman started a game, then ended on IR. Lance Schulters was picked up halfway through the season, after sitting at home most of the year. After all that, first round pick Jason Allen cracked the starting lineup. Allen, after being all but declared a bust, then showed a little bit of promise, at least enough to leave some hope for him. Yeremiah Bell was resigned to a one year deal, and was a difference maker in 2006 when he was healthy. Look for him to regain his starting role.

In free agency, Miami picked up some special teams aces that might crack the secondary lineup. Safety Keith Davis and cornerback Nathan Jones are more noted for kickoff coverage, but both were assured of competing for starting jobs. I can't complain about the depth, but neither was considered starting material in Dallas.

The draft looks weak in safeties, but fairly deep on cornerbacks. Both positions look to be filled after both offensive and defensive lines are addressed. A second round corner is not out of the question, but odds are the team will look to add a corner in rounds 3 to 5. Late round or undrafted safeties might be brought in to compete on special teams. A guy I like in that regard is Haruki Nakamura out of Cincinnati.  His measurables are average, but he's a big hitter who studies the game. I see him as a special teams gem that has a good shot at developing into a starter down the line.
 

3/13/08

The major part of the free agency period is over, so it's time to look at the Dolphins additions to the team. Parcells and Ireland decided not to offer huge contracts to the top-tier guys, choosing instead to sign a lot of younger players to build up solid depth. Let's take a look at the new guys.

Josh McCown was brought on board to compete with John Beck for the starting QB role. McCown has great size and a good arm, but struggles with decision-making at times. He is a serviceable stopgap, and is an improvement over Cleo Lemon, though another new veteran QB in Miami leaves a bad feeling of deja vu. At least the Dolphins didn't waste a draft pick in a trade this year.

Justin Smiley was the first free agent on the Dolphins agenda, and they locked him up early. He has decent size, and is a good player when healthy, but struggled with injuries last year. If he's back to 100%, he is an upgrade over Rex Hadnot, who departed for Cleveland. He's also 26, so he should still be on the upside of his career.

Jason Ferguson was acquired from Dallas for peanuts, and should hold the nose tackle position this year. At 33, he is only viable for one or two years, but he gives Miami a chance to succeed in a 3-4 in the coming season. Randy Starks was a free agent signing that gives more depth at defensive tackle. Keith Traylor was released, and the two signings are an improvement to the defensive front.

Reggie Torbor and Charlie Anderson were signed to bolster the linebacker corps. They provide solid depth, as well as an improvement to special teams. Torbor might move to the inside, as Miami is still a linebacker short following the release of Zach Thomas. Both are also in their mid 20's, further continuing the youth movement.

Ernest Wilford is a big receiver, who should take over for the released Marty Booker. Wilford is an upgrade, as he is a better short yardage target and has better hands than Booker. He's not a superstar, but should offer a fairly reliable target to either McCown or Beck.

The special teams coverage units have gotten a massive upgrade with the additions of Boomer Grigsby and Keith Davis. Both are known primarily for special teams; Davis being the former Dallas special teams captain, and Grigsby being a human wrecking ball on kickoffs. For an area that has been ignored far too long, the addition of these two is very welcome. Sean Ryan will also get in on special teams, and the addition of kicker Dave Rayner signifies the new management's commitment to getting more distance (and better field position) on kickoffs. I don't expect Rayner to beat out Jay Feely for a job, but Miami might decide to keep him if he can outdistance Feely and Fields in training camp.

The Dolphins also resigned Yeremiah Bell and Michael Lehan, who I'll cover in the next article on the secondary.

Overall, the team has made a number of small improvements with a focus on guys who can last at least 3-4 years. The team still has some gaping holes, with OT, OG, TE, DE, and WR needing help before the start of the season. Overall though, this free agency period receives positive marks.
 

2/20/08

The next position to look at on defense is the linebacker position. As timing would have it, 12 year linebacker and 7 time Pro Bowler Zach Thomas was released earlier this week. While the move was not completely unexpected, it certainly shakes things up for Miami. Let's start with a look at Thomas.

Zach Thomas has been the heart and soul of the defense since he was drafted. He was one of the all-time gems in the draft; a fifth round pick that has a good chance of ending up in the Hall of Fame. He is a smart disciplined player that was supposed to be too small and too slow to play the position. Determination and study of the game more than made up for any physical shortcomings that were perceived in him. 2007 was a rough year for Thomas, as he suffered a concussion followed by a car accident. The injuries only allowed him to play in 5 games and he ended the season on IR. From there, the Parcells regime decided to move in a new direction, cutting the 7 time Pro-Bowler.

There is a silver lining for both sides. For Thomas, he gets to pick where he plays next, on a winning team (he has yet to sign), and gets to skip on the losing side of the rebuilding process. For the Dolphins, they get to clear out an additional $5.6 million in cap room space. Miami currently has the most cap space of any team, and the cutting of Thomas will allow the Dolphins to be more competitive on their offers to multiple free agents. The downside for the Dolphins is that they must upgrade a unit now instead of being addressed in a year or two. The results of free agency will show whether Parcells and Ireland made a wise choice.

The other starting linebackers are Channing Crowder and Joey Porter. Crowder led the team in tackles in 2007. He moved to the MLB position when Thomas was injured. His play was not spectacular, but it was sufficient. He still shows some upside, and should become more effective if the defensive line improves. Joey Porter was the big free agent signing last year, and his 2007 season was severely disappointing. He was slow to learn the playbook, and was used in coverage, while his skills are at rushing the passer. Porter will be back, if only to keep Miami from absorbing a massive cap hit. His play improved over the course of the season, and a new scheme that uses him correctly could revitalize him in 2008.

Backups who played this season, and sometimes moved into a starting role, are Edmond Miles, Donnie Spragan, and Derrick Pope. Pope filled in adequately while Spragan and Miles are capable backups. Pope and Spragan are both free agents this year, and could decide to test the waters. Depth is lacking in the linebacker unit, but look for management to bring in new players to shake up the roster more. There aren't a lot of big names on the market, with Lance Briggs being the only star. While cutting Thomas makes the LB position an area of need, there are many more positions to address before looking for a linebacker. Solid players will likely be found in the later rounds, and special teams contributors will be important. In the later rounds, guys like Jeremy Leman and Spencer Larsen will be available. And you never know, it just may be possible to come away with a draft steal like Zach Thomas.

2/4/08

After finishing up on offense, it's time to move to the defense; and as with any defense, it all starts up front. The defensive line had a rough year, as the Dolphins gave up a league high 153.5 rushing yards per game, and only managed to get to the quarterback 20 times for a sack. When you realize that Jason Taylor was responsible for 11 of the sacks, the shortcomings of the line are painfully obvious. Lets take a look at the players.

Jason Taylor ended up with a solid season at right end after a slow start. He turned in another Pro Bowl year and was by far the best performer on the line. His play was less stellar than last year, but with the lack of surrounding talent, that's not surprising. Taylor should be back, though he might be granted a trade if another team is willing to give up enough.

Matt Roth played the left end position, and had an underwhelming season. He had 3 sacks in 13 games, and has not developed into a consistent threat. He's still young enough to have some upside, but he may be better suited to coming off the bench.

Vonnie Holliday and Keith Traylor were in the middle and aren't getting any younger. Both had trouble penetrating the middle; Holliday had 2 sacks while Traylor had 1. Holliday had some injuries this season, while Traylor would wear down a bit as games progressed. Holliday should be back, but might have to move to end if the defense switches to a 3-4. Traylor was leaning towards retirement last year, and with the losing season and the fight with Cameron, odds are he will be gone. Rod Wright contributed up the middle, but didn't make a huge impression. Quentin Moses was claimed off waivers at mid-season and showed some promise. Steve Fifita and Paul Soliai played sparingly, and didn't show much.

There is also some question as to whether the Dolphins will move to a full 3-4, stay in a 4-3, or a hybrid. Assuming the Dolphins adopt a 3-4, there is some major work to be done. Jason Taylor would likely move to an outside linebacker spot while occasionally moving back to end in certain formations. Holliday would likely move to end as he lacks the bulk to play tackle, Roth would have to bulk up, and the Dolphins would have to acquire a nose tackle. Soliai has the size to play tackle, but his lack of playing time means he's probably not an option. In a 4-3, Taylor, Holliday, and Roth would likely stay at their respective positions, while Miami acquires a top notch interior threat.

Right now, if the Phins stay at the top of the draft, there are two guys to look at: Glenn Dorsey and Chris Long. Glenn Dorsey is widely regarded as the best defensive player available. He's a quick, strong, penetrating interior defender. The knock on Dorsey with this pick is that physically, he's not a typical nose tackle (undersized), and the position doesn't play to his strengths well (he's more of a disruptive guy, not a space eater). If the Dolphins decide to keep the pick and go with a 4-3 or a hybrid, Dorsey is an excellent choice. The more common rumor is that Miami will switch to a 3-4. That's where Chris Long comes in. He's a big guy with a good motor, and managed to rack up 14 sacks in his senior season out of a 3-4 defense. Picking either with the first pick is a good option depending on the scheme. If the Dolphins go for Long, a tackle who might be there in the second round is Frank Okam. He has good size, and can play the nose tackle. In any case, look for the Defensive Line to be a high priority for the Dolphins, who should have a much more physical presence up front.

1/17/08

Finishing up with the offense, we'll take a look at the running backs and the offensive lineman. The running back position may be the strongest on the team. 
Ronnie Brown was averaging more yards from scrimmage than anyone else in the NFL before he suffered a torn ACL while trying to make a tackle on an interception. If he can recover sufficiently, he could be a Pro Bowl player. He has great hands in the passing game and was averaging 5.1 yards per carry.

As for the backups, Ricky Williams should be back at a bargain price, and despite his off-field issues, he's a serious player when healthy/sane. Lorenzo Booker started to get some time towards the end of the season and showed ability as a 3rd down back. He can be a dangerous player when used correctly, and his speed and shiftiness are a big asset.

Jesse Chatman showed the ability to be a borderline starter/quality backup. He is a free agent this year. He may want more money than the Dolphins are willing to give, but if the price is right, he should definitely be back. Patrick Cobbs and Samkon Gado will probably not be back next year. Neither is a good number one option, and they were playing due to the injuries to Brown, Chatman, and Williams. At fullback, Reagan Mauia is a not an option as a rusher or receiver, and is average as a blocker. A player with a little more versatility would be a good idea, although the team has bigger priorities than the fullback position.

While the offensive line played solidly, they were less effective down the stretch (probably as a result of injuries to the guys behind them as well as the mental wear of losing so often.) The unit also has a number of guys whose contracts are up.

Two guys who will be back are Vernon Carey and Samson Satele. Carey has proven that he is a very effective Left Tackle, although he's not quite to Pro Bowl status. He also may be better suited to the right side of the line. Satele has done a good job at the center position, and as a rookie, should continue to improve. Those are the only two guys assured of coming back.

Chris Liwienski and Cory Lekkerkerker platooned at LG and neither was particularly effective. Both will be free agents. Rex Hadnot offered solid play at the RG position, but will also be a free agent. He may get more money as a free agent than Miami is willing to spend. It takes a line a while to gel, so his return would be beneficial (especially to Satele, whom Hadnot mentored early in the season) but the new regime of Parcells prefers really big guys, so the 6'2" Hadnot might not be in the plans.

LJ Shelton held the RT position this past season, and has not had great consistency. He's a player that has trouble getting motivated, as evidenced when he showed up at camp overweight. His best season came when playing guard, and a move to the inside is conceivable. He also has the highest salary of any lineman, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him cut; but given his size and versatility, he'll most likely stay.

Drew Mormino had a good camp last year, but ended on the IR. Alabi, and Toledo are two other players who might be back through camp, but need to impress to stay with the team, as they are running out of chances.

There are a couple free agents that the Dolphins will take a look at. Two Pro Bowlers in Flozell Adams and Alan Faneca are the likeliest candidates. Both are over 30 years old, but have 3-4 good seasons left. Parcells signed Adams in Dallas and could do so in Miami, leaving Carey to shift to the right side, and Shelton to move inside to guard. Right tackles are easier to find (and less expensive) however, and Carey's play at LT has been good, so the Phins might save some money for other positions.

Alan Faneca is a LG and might be the best free agent available. He's big and plays with toughness. Looking at Carey, Faneca, and Satele lining up together would be a good option. The only drawback is that there is likely to be a bidding war for Faneca's services, and he might prefer to go to a more competitive team.

In the draft, OT Jake Long is a possibility with the first pick, but still remains a long shot. Parcells will likely try to find some line gems in the later rounds. Running back is not a position that needs to be addressed in the draft. Darren McFadden might be the best player, but the Dolphins have far greater needs than adding another big time running back.
 

1/7/08

Last week, I went into the struggles that the quarterbacks had this year. A huge reason for those struggles is the amount of talent among the wide receivers and tight ends. First, lets take a look at the wide receivers.

Marty Booker was the Dolphins leading receiver this year. In 15 games, he gained only 556 yards for a paltry 37 yards per game and only found the endzone once. He also doesn't have the most reliable hands. Let's just kindly say that he's not a number one option. With a large cap number, expect him to be among the first players cut.

Ted Ginn, the Dolphins first round pick last year, ended up with a solid (albeit underwhelming) rookie season with 420 yards and 2 TD's. He showed good hands and the speed he was drafted for, but needs work on routes and timing. He could develop into a good number one reciever if he can avoid getting pushed around by physical corners. At this stage, he's still pretty raw, but should improve tremendously over the offseason. His returning skills have also been an asset.

The next two players in terms of receiving production for the Dolphins didn't make it past week 7. Chris Chambers was traded away after week 6 for a second round pick this year, and Ronnie Brown ended up on the IR after week 7. The fact that Ted Ginn only passed Chambers and Brown in week 16 is a testament to the weakness of the unit. Brown is a great threat out of the backfield and with Lorenzo Booker developing, should give the Dolphins one of the best backfield receiving tandems in the league next year. Chambers was a reliable player that the Dolphins missed desperately, but the second round pick was good value for him.

Derek Hagan has struggled to find consistency and he drops a lot of passes. He might be back next year, but is running out of chances to show what he's got. His yardage was bad, but he did manage to find the 1st down marker 21 times out of his 29 catches, which is great compared to Marty Booker's 28 out of 50.

Greg Camarillo had some good highlight plays but the fact that he couldn't crack the lineup as a 4th option until the last 3 games is concerning. His 2 touchdowns in the last 3 games offer some hope for him though.

The tight ends may be the worst position on the roster. David Martin ranked 31st in the league in YPG among tight ends. When you consider his awful blocking skills and the fact he that he drops a lot of balls, it's obvious he needs to go. Justin Peelle is a solid blocker but isn't much of a receiver. The tight end is a big contributor to 3rd down efficiency on both passing and rushing downs; there may not be a position in bigger need of an upgrade.

Look for the Dolphin's to pursue a free agent wide receiver, such as Bernard Berrian or Patrick Crayton. Good hands needs to be a priority when looking for receivers, as drops stalled the offense all season. Receiver probably won't be a huge focus in the draft, though there appears some solid talent will be available into the third round and beyond. A big possession WR would do wonders. A guy I like right now is Jordy Nelson with a possible third round pick.

There won't be a lot of good tight ends in free agency, though it looks like this might be the deepest tight end draft in years. If Fred Davis slips into the second round, it might be hard for the Phins to pass him up. Either way, a tight end in the second to third round would not be surprising.

In front office news, Cam Cameron and Randy Mueller and the vast majority of the coaching staff are out. Jeff Ireland is in as GM. Looking for the 5th head coach in 5 years. Let's hope whoever gets the job can actually pull it off.
 

12/28/07

Big News for the Dolphins. They hired the Big Tuna and they've locked up the Number 1 overall pick. I'll comment more on Parcells later, but for now let's get to the Quarterback position.

Dan Marino spoiled the Dolphins. For years, one of the all time greats held the position for the Phins. Sadly, those days are in the past.
The position has become a revolving door since Marino was forced to retire.

Here is the list of names.
Huard, Fiedler, Lucas, Griese, Feeley, Rosenfels, Frerotte, Culpepper, Harrington, Lemon, Green, and Beck. The average time spent on the team for those quarterbacks is 2 years. Excluding Beck the cost in terms of draft picks lost is two second rounders, a fifth, two sixths, and a seventh.

The most important position on the team has been the least stable. It only takes a quick glance at QB's drafted in the last 12 years to see why.
In 1998, John Dutton was drafted as a 6th rounder and didn't make it through training camp. Josh Heupel was drafted in 2001 and lasted one year. And then we have John Beck, drafted in the second round last year. 12 years of drafts and only 3 quarterbacks selected, two of which never made it past their rookie season. Meanwhile, 6 draft picks were traded to other teams for retread QB's.
Since Marino retired, the Dolphins have used other teams cast-offs as opposed to trying to groom a future player. Other teams have done much better by cultivating their own QB's.

Here is a list of players to ponder: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, David Garrard, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Brett Favre, Derek Anderson, and Carson Palmer.
All of these players were either drafted or groomed by the team they currently play for. They also (with the exception of Manning, Roethlisberger, and Brady) spent significant amounts of time as a backup learning the position.
Favre and Palmer had a year on the bench. Anderson and Romo had 3. Garrard had 5 years before becoming the starter.

The point is that while there are a few players capable of stepping in and contributing right away, the vast majority need some acclimation time. Every year, the Dolphins have brought in a new quarterback to start, such as bringing in Daunte Culpepper and Joey Harrington rather than sticking with Gus Frerotte and Sage Rosenfels. The amount of turnover is the cause of the current problems.

The Quarterbacks currently signed are Trent Green, Cleo Lemon, and John Beck. None of these guys has had a good season.
Trent Green was put on Injured Reserve following his second major concussion in 2 years. He carries a large cap number of 3.5Mil+ and probably will never be cleared to play again.
Cleo Lemon has shown the ability to be a solid backup. He is not the long term answer, and is a free agent after this year.
John Beck suffered through a couple of rough games this year, and has had terrible numbers. He spent most of the season running the scout team, and is still very much a prospect.

The free agent pool this year looks to be fairly weak. The Phins should also be careful of bringing in yet another new guy to start. As much as I hate to say it, there is a good case for keeping Cleo Lemon aboard.
John Beck will be with the team next year, and should improve with more repetitions, but there needs to be competition. Rather than bringing in another new guy, the continuity of Lemon (mediocre that he is) would be beneficial. I wouldn't pay top dollar to keep Lemon, but a competitive offer could keep him around.
Trent Green should be cut if the Dolphins keep Lemon. In the event that Green is cleared to play and would accept the veteran minimum salary, a case could be made for Green instead of Lemon. Either way, the Dolphins should try to build from within for once. Beck and Lemon should offer better play with more talent surrounding them, such as a healthy Ronnie Brown, a better line, and an improved receiver and tight end corps. Other positions offer quicker dividends than the quarterback position at this point.
In the draft, the Dolphins should start looking for a prospect around round 4. Drafting a quarterback with a big arm and good measurables to develop would be a good way to progress.

There has been some talk of drafting a quarterback with the first overall pick. Though I was in the camp for drafting Brady Quinn last year, there are better uses for the pick this year. The probability of busting on a 1st round quarterback are high. For every Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, and Ben Roethlisberger, there is a Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, David Carr, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, and Akili Smith.
Also if you look at Roethlisberger, he went to an intact team. Palmer sat a year while the team improved. Manning had key elements in place, such as tackles Glenn and Meadows, as well as a go-to receiver in Marvin Harrison. The Dolphins are in a much worse situation, and the first overall pick would be better spent on the offensive or defensive line.
 

12/22/07