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1/30/09
Misc
Another possible solution at WR got away – Mike Hass was signed by
Seattle. It’s a real shame they didn’t have the sense to evaluate him
after we were eliminated in 07 or while Booker and Davis were dropping
everything in 08.
As expected, Tillman had reconstructive shoulder surgery as soon as the
season ended.
Angelo had an interview where he seems resigned to Urlacher being past
his prime. Angelo also sounded smitten by Danieal Manning. He talked
like Mike Brown is finally done here, because they want Manning on the
field more and the money to give him a medium-sized extension!
Are You In Or Out?
Deciding when your window is, and when to put your resources into trying
to win immediately and when to rebuild with an eye down the road is a
crucial team evaluation task.
I think if the Bears decide to go all in on 2009, they have a decent
shot at doing better than this season - ie, going to the playoffs. But
being a serious contender? I think the odds are pretty slim. Reasonable
best case, I see them winning about 10, advancing maybe a round into the
playoffs, thinking they're really close again, playing for 2010, then
watching the wheels fall off (which also has a pretty decent shot of
happening in 2009, too).
I said it at the time - and this year wasn't enough of a surprise to
chan ge my mind - that the window for this incarnation closed during the
2007 run when Rex washed out, Miller got hurt again, Reuban Brown got
hurt again, Mike Brown got hurt again, they decided to dump Moose,
Urlacher developed a chronic condition, Daniel Manning was a disaster at
FS, they decided they hated RMJ, Berrian was let go, and Okwo, Bazuin,
Wolfe, and Benson were all misses.
That's way too many losses to absorb at once without rebuilding for a
bit.
They did cut some dead wood and get a tiny bit younger for 2008, but not
much. Potential losses within the next 0-2 years of Urlacher, Brown,
Tait, Kreutz, St Clair, Clark, Vasher, Harris, Ogunleye is a lot of key
personnel to churn through. I have a hard time seeing them bringing in
talent so fast that they can replace those losses and get even better.
Given that Lovie is guaranteed at least 2 more years, I think rebuilding
is the way to go right now. From interviews, it’s quite clear the key
figures are thinking the exact opposite.
WR
Because I’d rather be building this team for the future, I’m not as
hell-bent on getting a receiver as many others are. Not that I wouldn’t
like some more talent there, but I don’t rank it our top 09 need, just
because it was obviously our top 08 deficiency.
Receivers typically have a slow learning curve, and a rookie probably
won't be contributing until at least 2010, if not 11. By that time, I'm
really not sure how urgent a need WR will be. Hester is finally winning
me over, and I think by the end of 09/very beginning of 10 he will be a
legit starter. And Bennett was taken in R3 (and I had him slotted late
2), which is a point where you're anticipating a starter quality FL. As
for a 3rd receiver - I think Olsen really does/can function as this
team's 3rd WR (and does it quite well).
Am I sure Hester and Bennett will pan out? Of course not. But we've got
young, high picks at those 2 slots with a solid chance of making it.
Before I go stacking more good prospects there than I have positions to
play them at, I'd rather work on the positions where I've got nothing
lined up.
At DE, what have we got to replace Ogun when he's sent to the glue
factory (which, it appears in retrospect, should have already happened a
year ago)? Anderson's been playing and been a stink bomb 2 yrs running,
as a starter and as a rotational player.
At FS, we've got absolutely, positively no legit immediate players or
legit prospects. Nothing at all. (Unless you move Tillman, which I think
then creates a serious weakness at CB you have to fill instead.)
And at OT, even supposing Williams is fine now, Tait is old, and St
Clair is fairly old and probably leaving in FA, I suspect. Again,
nothing young at all there to pin your hopes on.
If we can use our top 3 picks at those 3 positions, then I think we've
got either a passable starter and/or legit starter-potential
young/developing prospect at every position. Then if Bennett were to
look bad in 09, for example, then I'd be after quicker FA help.
Coaching
The fans wanted Babich gone. The players all bit their tongues and
carefully said "something has to change", which is code for "I don’t
want to be cut, but I hate playing in our defense".
Result?
Everyone was fired, except DC Bob Babich, who gained
additional responsibilities.
Really.
DB coach – gone. LB coach – gone. DL coach – gone. (and this isn’t the
first position coach housecleaning of the Lovie era, either) Lovie’s
best buddy, Babich – still here.
There’s more, though. Another Lovie Buddy, ex-Lion HC, Rod Marinelli,
was brought in to work on the defense. Would he become the new DC, with
Babich busted back down to LB coach? Of course not. a) that would
embarrass Lovie Buddy Number One. b) that would make sense.
What we got instead was Marinelli as Asst HC/DL coach, Babich as DC/LB
coach, and Lovie as HC saying that he wants to be ‘more involved’ in the
defense, including the play-calling, next season.
So what does that all add up to? Could be a few different meanings –
Babich is essentially relieved of DC duties and Marinelli will
really fill that role, no matter what the titles say. This is the best
scenario, but least likely, IMO.
Babich is essentially relieved of DC duties and Lovie intends to run
the defense himself. Some HCs do call the offensive plays, but I don’t
think anyone operates without a true coordinator.
Nothing much really changes. Lovie makes a bit of a show of being
more involved, and Babich is somewhat distracted by his new LB duties,
but mostly things run as before.
The DC duties are handled by committee, involving Lovie, Marinelli,
and Babich. In other words, a giant cluster**** of a management diagram,
which should work out about as well as the ‘GM by committee’ approach
worked for the Bears, before Angelo’s arrival.
QBs
Charlie Batch, Pittsburgh Steelers
Kyle Boller, Baltimore Ravens
Brooks Bollinger, Dallas Cowboys
Todd Bouman, Baltimore Ravens
David Carr, New York Giants
Kerry Collins, Tennessee Titans
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Cincinnati Bengals
Charlie Frye, Seattle Seahawks
Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Gibran Hamdan, Buffalo Bills
Joey Harrington, New Orleans Saints
Byron Leftwich, Pittsburgh Steelers
J.P. Losman, Buffalo Bills
Jamie Martin, San Francisco 49ers
Luke McCown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dan Orlovsky, Detroit Lions
J.T. O'Sullivan, San Francisco 49ers
Patrick Ramsey, Denver Broncos
Chris Simms, Tennessee Titans
Brian St. Pierre, Arizona Cardinals
Marques Tuaisosopo, Oakland Raiders
Kurt Warn er, Arizona Cardinals
Anthony Wright, New York Giants
There’s 3 accomplished old men out there (Warner, Garcia, Collins).
Those are the guys to pursue if you think there’s still room in the Bear
window (which I don’t).
If you’re thinking about rebuilding with Orton and a decent young vet
with some upside remaining, there’s at least 10 that fit the bill
adequately, and none that particularly stand out much. Leftwich and
Simms had the most success, but both have had bad injuries, may not be
the same anymore, and are now risky choices.
2009 Shopping List
Our early picks should be roughly 18, 49, 85, and probably an early
compensatory pick (97-100ish?) for Berrian.
Our FA position is discussed further down, in the Mailbag.
Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed
in.....Comment
1)………..FS....…..1-3…………….Brown is a 30+ FA with a long injury history,
Manning has only 1 yr left, and they prefer him at nickel back. The
Payne experiment demonstrates just how desperate they are.
2)………..DE.…….1-4……………Ogun, Idonije, and Anderson all expire after 09.
Ogunleye and Anderson have been invisible, they want Idonije to do ST
and rotational DT. Ogunleye 31.
3)……8 0..OT?….…1-3..………….Williams has a potentially serious injury
concern, St Clair is a FA, Tait aging and a FA the year after.
4)……….HB?…….2-5…………….None of the backups has contributed anything with
the ball. Forte getting seriously overworked.
5)……….WR?……1-3……………. Decent depth and 2 developing youngsters, but
utterly atrocious in immediate top-end talent. Not much of a year for
drafting or signing FA receivers, though.
6)………..QB?……1-7……………. Anything’s possible - could go real prospect, vet
backup, or mid-round placeholder. Terrible top prospects, but late
rounds shaping up to have interesting value. Since they like Hanie,
signs are pointing more to veteran backup.
7)………..G?……...2-3…….……...Decent depth now, but very lacking in top-end
talent
8)………..LB?.…...5-7……………..2 FAs. But Roach, McClover, and even Wilson are
good bets to return
In spite of having a winning record, there’re almost no young building
blocks, almost no difference-makers, and almost no position groups that
are off-limits for this aging bunch with the arrow pointing down.
Blitz Draft
Blitz maintains a list of its top 500 players. Here’s who I would have
taken for us, using player availability based on a recent version and my
guesses at our eventual draft slots.
1) OT Eben Britton, Arizona
Not really thrilled about this, but usually 18 ends up being a reach if
we can’t trade
2) FS Rashad Johnson, Alabama
We should be so lucky to have a shot at him in R2
3) DE Robert Ayers, Tenn
Might need another DE again next year after this, but since I figure
Ogun and Anderson to be gone, we probably need 2 anyway.
3C*) WR Demetrius Byrd, LSU
Probable comp pick for Berrian turns into another R3 speed receiver
4) T/G Troy Kropog, Tulane
Physically talented ex-teammate of Forte’s
5) QB Tom Brandstater, Fresno State
QB not planned, but I like Brandstater a lot more than Chris, I guess
6) HB Kory Sheets, Purdue
7) FB Jorvorskie Lane, Texas AM
Eye on the Future
Players that fit the Bears’s needs, scheme, and draft slots well. Not
a complete ranking of the position.
HB
Rashad Jennings, 6’1 235 4.55 , Liberty
Not fast, shifty, or much of a receiver, but a good bruiser back.
James Davis, 5’10 207 4.50, Clemson
Not an accomplished receiver, blocker, or a big breakaway threat
Marlon Lucky, 6’0 210 4.50, Nebraska
Very well-rounded player. Physically, similar stylistically to Forte.
Bafflingly underrated by some after sharing carries as a senior.
Cedric Peerman, 5’9 210 4.50, Virginia
Good receiver, lots of injuries
Kory Sheets, 5’11 205 4.50, Purdue
Good receiver and blocker
Glen Coffee, 6’1 200 4.50, Alabama
Will have to add weight without losing too much speed
Branden Ore, 5’11 200 4.50, West Liberty State
Sadly, Coffee and Ore may not be going to Combine
FS
Rashad Johnson, 6’0 195 4.50, Alabama
On the rise after the Senior Bowl
Louis Delmas, 5’11 195 4.50, W Michigan
Good intangibles, mediocre measurables
William Moore, 6’0 225 4.55, Missouri
Very unclear what position he fits well – if any. Needs to drop a lot
of weight to play pro FS.
Derek Pegues, 5’9 190 4.45, Miss St
Small, fast transfer from CB. Size less than ideal, although fairly
similar to young Mike Brown.
Not a lot of pure FSs, although if Angelo insists on continuing to go
the smart + slow route, t hat would present more options.
DE
Everette Brown, 6’4 250 4.70, Fl State(Jr)
This has to be the top thought right now, if he should last to 18
Clint Sintim, 6’3 250 4.70, Virginia
Better 3-4 candidate, but could play LB/DE (a la Colvin) or maybe DE in
a 4-3
Michael Johnson, 6’6 260 4.65, Ga Tech
Great measurables, but production lags a bit. Unbelievably passed on
the Senior Bowl, despite not being an elite prospect.
Connor Barwin, 6’3 255 4.65, Cincinnati
Having a breakout season in first year playing defense
Larry English, 6’2 255 4.75, N Illinois
3 very productive seasons, but may have to play in a 3-4
Robert Ayers, 6’3 275 4.75, Tenn
Senior Bowl propels him into relevancy
Paul Kruger, 6’4 265 4.70, Utah
Matt Shaughnessy, 6’6 253 4.75, Wisc
Some injury concern. Has frame to get bigger
OT
Jason Smith, 6’4 300 5.20, Baylor
Athletic LT, but undersized and from a quirky offense.
Michael Oher, 6’5 310 5.20, Ole Miss
Overhyped and risky. But, that said, still a top prospect.
Eben Britton, 6’6 310 5.10, Arizona(Jr)
Phil Loadholt, 608 340 5.35, Oklahoma
Probably RT only. Long arms.
Andre Smith, 6’4 350 5.30, Alabama(Jr)
Raves about his talent, but physique and footspeed make him a better G
prospect.
William Beatty, 6’6 290 5.15, Connecticut
Finesse T could use some weight.
Troy Kropog, 6’5 315 5.00, Tulane
Small school project with LT athleticism. Mixed reviews.
Jamon Meredith, 6’5 300 5.20, South Carolina
Fenuki Tupou, 6’6 330 5.25, Oregon
Pro RT. Powerful.
QB
Matthew Stafford, 6’3 230, Georgia (Jr)
Will only be 21, but has almost 3 full yrs starting.
Mark Sanchez 6’3 225, USC (Jr)
Needs a lot more development, but came out because Bradford didn’t.
Josh Freeman 6’6 250, K State (Jr)
Giant with a powerful gun, but also extremely raw.
Rhett Bomar, 6’2 225, Sam Houston State
Nate Davis, 6’2 215, Ball State
Strong arm, funky mechanics, small
Tom Brandstater, 6’5 220, Fresno State
Well-rounded player
David Johnson, 6’2 220, Tulsa
Only 1yr experience
Hunter Cantwell, 6’4 230, Louisville
Strong arm, only201 yr of experience.
Curtis Painter, 6’4 220, Purdue
3 yrs as full-time starter
Nathan Brown, 6’1 215, Central Arkansas
Weak arm
Rudy Carpenter, 6’2 200 Arizona State
Graham Harrell, 6’2 215, Texas Tech
Every year or so, the new Texas Tech QB with crazy numbers is supposed
to be ‘the real deal – not like all the other Texas Tech QBs with crazy
numbers who had no pro impact.’ They never are. Weak arm.
Cullen Harper, 6’3 225, Clemson
Trainwreck senior season has dropped him from a top 25 to a top 250
prospect
Chase Daniel, 5’11 220 Missouri
Major height concerns and a mediocre arm, but jaw-dropping college
production and quality intangibles, too.
Chase Holbrook, 6’5 240, NM State
Monster numbers in 06, tailed off a bit since.
Mike Reilly, 6’3 215, Central Washington
Mike Teel, 6’3 220, Rutgers
Willie Tuitama, 6’3 220 Arizona
JP Wilson, 6’2 215, Alabama
Awful at the top, but I’m growing really intrigued by some of the value
likely to be around in R4-7…which is where all but the top couple of
these guys belong. Because of the way they’re all bunched together in
quality, it’s entirely reasonable for a QB to be=2 08th on
one evaluator’s list and 25th on someone else’s. There’s very
little separation in this unimpressive crew.
Mailbag
Feel free to write me (click blue name in the upper right) with your
questions. On the down side, I don’t have access to some of the great
stats they do on the official team site. Also, I’m mighty busy, and I
hope you’ll be patient if it takes me a while to reply. But, on the flip
side, I do eventually reply to most questions. And, unlike the team
site, I’m not constrained by having to toe the company line* in my
replies.
Dave, how is the salary cap situation for bears? Thanks.
Bill F
In this era of Internet information availability, finding accurate and
detailed cap info is still extremely difficult. It’s also not uncommon
for two seemingly reliable sources to publish highly contradictory
within a week or two of each other.
Typically, the Bears have managed their cap quite well (not cheapness,
but actual skill!). They’ve virtually never had ‘over the cap slash and
burn’ issues. Usually they have lots of room left as the end of the
season approaches, and they do creative deals with veterans to extend
their contracts and pay them out of the current year’s cap for service
they’ll=2 0get in future years (a type of front-loaded extension). In
2008, the Bears used nearly every dollar they had available – despite
entering the season with a sizeable amount remaining, IIRC. They spent
most of that leftover amount on a quirky contract for CB Marcus Hamilton
(stolen midseason when the Bucs tried to drop him back to the PS) which
boils down to a sneaky way to take 10M of available 2008 cap space and
transfer it to 2009, making 2009’s pot bigger.
Recently, Brad Biggs (Chicago Sun-Times) did a follow-up to a Kevin
Seifert (ESPN) piece – the upshot of which is that the Bears should have
about 27M available in a 123M cap for 2009.
One important thing neither piece mentions is how many players (and how
many key players) are under contract at the time of those numbers. For
example, one team may end the season with 53 players on their roster,
have 15 players (all starters) becoming free agents in the offseason,
and a cap number of 90M. Another team might end the season with 53
player on their roster, have only 4 free agents (none of them starters)
with contracts that expire at the end of the season, and a cap number of
90M. Clearly, Team B is in much better position, because they have 33M
to work with and very few holes left to fill up. Team A has 33M to work
with, but 33M to replace/re-sign 15 starters isn’t going to go very far.
Biggs did report the team’s leading cap numbers f or 2009 as
approximately:
1) Brian Urlacher 9.7 million
2) Tommie Harris 9.1
3) Devin Hester 6.9
4) Lance Briggs 6.8
5) Adewale Ogunleye 6.4
6) John Tait 5.4
7) Nathan Vasher 4.9
8) Charles Tillman 4.8
Worth noting is that 6/8 are defense. That’s where the team spends draft
picks and $ both and that’s why the defense is almost always better than
the offense around here. Also worth noting is that only 3/8 (Briggs,
Tait, Tillman) are worth or even remotely close to worth that much,
based on 2008 performance. (Maybe Hester for a 4th, if you
project based off his last few games only.)
I’m expecting a source will have a good update/refined estimate for 2009
total team cap in roughly a month or so – a bit before free agency kicks
off (Feb 27), I hope. In the meantime, here’s a site with some good
general info on the salary cap and free agency (links on the left).
A giant update in mid March – my post-combine full draft board with 256+
slotted players!
12/31/08
Recap
6-5) Bears 27 St Louis 3
Bears pound a team that was bad before their best players got hurt
6-6) Minn 34 Bears 14
After an encouraging start, the Bears absorb their second butchering by
a division rival in the last 3 games. Failing to score from the 2, then
giving up a 99 yd TD, breaks their spirit.
7-6) Bears 23 Jax 10
Bears take care of business, thumping the weak with consistency. Orton
returns to form, Hester fumbles a lot, Adams and Idonije provide a
spark.
8-6) Bears 27, NO 24 (OT)
More of the usual. Special teams and takeaways bail out an anemic
offense.
9-6) Bears 17, GB 14 (OT)
Bears get off to a very slow start with Forte gimpy. He gets back on
track late and special teams (great kicking, FG block, and fluke fumble
recovery off a punt) makes the difference.
9-7) Houston 31, Bears 24
Defense helpless. Bears eliminated from playoffs by this game.
Final Grades
( ) contain contract years left at the end of the season. +1 shows RFA
and +2 ERFA status after their current contract expires. PUP is the
Physically Unable to Perform list, IR for Injured Reserve, and INJ is
used for a player hampered by injury, but not on the preceding lists.
Bold denotes star players, Underline shows a sol id starter,
Normal for substandard starters to decent backups, and Italics
for poor/raw/ST only players.
Position grades are based on how effective the unit was, relative to the
rest of the NFL. [ ]s contain my preseason prediction.
OL
St. Clair(FA), Beekman(2), Kreutz(2), Garza(3), Tait(1)
Williams(4), Buenning(1), Metcalf(3)
Reed(PS), Balogh(PS)
Miller(FA-IR)
[A battered Oline had highs and lows in the preseason. But when defenses
start playing for keeps and pressuring harder come the regular season,
I’d plan on seeing more of the lows. D+]
Smaller finesse players position fairly well, but don’t push very much.
Whether St Clair comes back, following a passable 1st year
starting, will be key to the offseason strategy here. Beekman was
tolerable in his first year of duty, but doesn’t really have adequate G
size. He’ll probably take over for Olin, eventually. It’s unfortunate
Buenning never got a shot. He does have the body for G and was
previously a starter there. Williams also got next to no work, so he’s a
total unknown going into 09. Kreutz and Tait are still hanging in fine,
but neither should be penciled in for too much longer. Kreutz is showing
more decline than Tait, which is not unexpected, since he’s somewhat
undersized. It would be a shock if Miller plays in 2009.
C-
QB
Orton(1), Grossman(FA), Hanie(2+1)
[While Orton looked good against a bad SF team when he had outstanding
protection, it’s hard to envision him cracking the 80 (rating) barrier.
Cleveland brought back 2005 memories. D+]
Like 2006 Rex, Orton started hot, then faded away. You might be able to
put some blame on his ankle, but his outlook has dimmed back to only
slightly better than opening day. How much they commit to him and how
much the hedge their bet with another option will be another critical
offseason decision. Grossman was ineffective in a short fill-in stretch
and Hanie never played.
D+
WR
Hester(5), Booker(1)
Lloyd(FA), Davis(2)
Rideau(1+2?), Bennett(3)
Aromashodu(2)
Hass(PS), Broussard(PS)
[D-]
Just miserable. Easily the worst WR group in the NFL.
Bennett, Rideau, and Hass saw virtually no time. Lloyd had a short hot
streak early, but then hurt his knee. After a long layoff that raised
eyebrows, he was largely invisible upon return. The unit is so
impoverished, he could return, but no one will complain if he doesn’t,
either. Everyone’s sorry Booker came back to Chicago to tarnish his
goodwill. The presumptive starting FL contributed very littl e beyond a
litany of drops. Davis also committed far too many drops and worsened
his stock. The only bright spot in the entire group was Hester. While he
still has a long way to go, at least he continues to make noticeable
improvement.
F
TE
Clark(2), Olsen(3), Davis(3)
Mines(PS)
[A-]
While Olsen has eclipsed his numbers, Clark remains the everydown
starter. Olsen has gotten much more utilization and produced well in the
passing game, however, he is also more and more clearly not developing
into an in-line TE. Defenses like to treat Olsen as a WR and go nickel
against him. So he gets used as a pumped-up slot receiver (he’s the best
receiver on the team, incidentally) or even more of an h-B sometimes. If
anyone on the roster will eventually take over Clark’s starting job, it
will have to be Davis, however, he’s not getting any work at this time,
with the quality he’s got in front of him.
A-
HB
Forte(3-INJ), Jones(FA), Peterson(1)
Wolfe(2-IR)
[No idea what to expect from this crew. C+]
Forte was a godsend for the 2008 Bears, accounting for an enormous chunk
of the offense. He did everything – run, catch, and block – and he
handled himself like a veteran from Day 1. Unfortunately, he also got
badly overworked – partly because his backups weren’t much good and
partly because this staff doesn’t believe in making changes unless
absolutely forced to. Jones may or may not have been recovered from his
knee injury, but regardless, he spent the year just gathering dust. The
team used up 2 more roster spots on guys that are good/very good special
teamers, but nothing more.
B+
FB
McKie(3), Davis(1+2?)
[McKie is neither a big punisher or a great ‘skill player’. C-]
FB was never a big part of the offense, and it’s declined with the
increased double TE sets to accommodate Olsen. McKie and Davis were
serviceable.
[Unreal depth (thanks to pouring resources into it constantly) and
highly touted. But in the preseason they absolutely did not get anything
done. B]
Tommie Harris is ideally the key to the defense. He was genuinely,
embarrassingly bad for the first third of the year, before warming up to
be sporadically useful later in the season. His future health/outlook is
very uncertain and crucial to the team’s future. Interior mate Dvoracek
started the season20solidly enough, but seemed to wear down before
getting hurt. He also has no penetration ability, which the scheme is
designed around. Adams was off and on successful as his replacement.
Idonije and Harrison were useful rotational backups.
On the outside, Alex Brown is a consistent, very well-rounded
overachiever – which qualifies him as the year’s best defensive lineman,
unfortunately. Ogunleye has good character and still plays the run
pretty well. His modest sacks overstate his pass rush, though – 4/5 came
in our few easy victories. Anderson continued to regress and will be
lucky to hang around much longer.
Overall, this unit is supposed to be the centerpiece of the team, but it
fell well short.
Urlacher didn’t miss a single play or say a word about his back, but
he’s also just not been an impact player anymore. His tackles are down
over 25% and he logged no sacks. Maybe our terrible safety situation has
forced Urlacher’s attention more towards coverage, but it’s hard to be
optimistic about his future. I’ve always found Briggs to be overrated,
but he kept his desire intact after cashing in the20big contract this
year. In fact, he may have stepped his game up a bit. He’s not fast, but
is a good tackler who hits hard, durable, and intense. On the strong
side, Hillenmeyer has been plagued by minor injuries and lost his
starting job to undrafted newcomer Nick Roach. Surprisingly, Jamar
Williams isn’t even in the mix for spot duty anymore. LaRocque and
McClover are ST specialists.
C+
S
Payne(2), Steltz(3)
Worrell(?), DManning(1)
Brown(FA-IR), McGowan(FA-IR)
[Players keep shifting roles here constantly. Which is another way of
saying no one is stepping up and proving themselves. D+]
Payne is off to a decent start as a SS. The recent experiment of
flipping him and Brown is downright depressing and really underscores
the complete lack of FS talent on this team, though. Brown actually
stayed healthy for the majority of the season. The switch to SS,
however, is an admission that he’s lost at least half a step from
originally subpar speed. After playing poorly at FS for two years,
Danieal Manning is finally catching on as a role player. He’s delivered
a few sparks by playing nickelback, blitzing from the outside, and
returning kickoffs. But he doesn’t really play S anymore. Steltz
underwhelmed greatly in brief fill-in duty. McGowan went down early with
yet another injury and Worrell was brought back when the ranks got
depleted.
Lack of pressure made this group look worse than they really are.
Tillman is big, fast, smart, a great tackler, an expert at stripping the
ball, and a high character leader. Corey Graham really stepped up with
the increased opportunity in 08. He’s like a lesser version of Tillman
and it will be hard to keep him out of the starting lineup in 09. Vasher
had a season to forget, with spotty play and lots of injury problems.
McBride had a quiet year, mostly serving as a special teamer and
insurance policy. Bowman provided a little excitement before quickly
landing on IR.
B
LS
Mannelly(2)
K
Gould(5)
P
Maynard(2)
KR
Manning
PR
Hester
[Really, I don’t think any other Special Teams unit in the modern era of
the NFL belongs in the team photo with this group, with the exception of
the 2006 and 2007 versions of it. A++]
Gould and Maynard remained top-notch. Hester’s return magic utterly
disappeared with him devoting more energy to playing receiver. After he
finally lost the KR job, Manning jumped i n and provided a lot of spark
there. In general, special teams was above average, but far from what it
has been recently.
B
The coaching staff did a good job of keeping the team unified and
focussed. The Bears showed excellent heart and effort, as usual.
Excluding special teams, the staff did a fairly poor job of
strategizing, particularly on defense. They were predictable and
frequently beaten by halftime/in-game adjustments. They also didn’t
switch up personnel (to evaluate/season youngsters or to try something
different when the incumbent wasn’t working out) nearly as much as they
should have – only when forced by injury.
The way their strengths and weaknesses work out, it means you tend not
to get really bad seasons (their desire prevents it), but you tend not
to get really good seasons, either (their schemes are ordinary, at best
– only great personnel could make the team great). I’d rather have a
HC/staff whose strength is their strategizing.
C-
2009 Shopping List
Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed
in.....Comment
1)………..FS....…..1-3…………….Brown is a 30+ FA with a long injury history,
Manning has only 1 yr left, and they prefer him at nickel back. The
Payne experiment demonstrates just how desperate they are.
2)………..DE.…….1-4……………Ogun, Idonije, and Anderson all expire after 09.
Ogunleye and Anderson have been invisible, they want Idonije to do ST
and rotational DT. Ogunleye 31.
3)………..OT?….…1-3..………….Williams has a potentially serious injury
concern, St Clair is a FA, Tait aging and a FA the year after.
4)……….HB?…….2-5…………….None of the backups has contributed anything with
the ball. Forte getting seriously overworked.
5)………..QB?……1-7……………. Anything’s possible - could go real prospect, vet
backup, or late-round placeholder. Terrible top prospects, but late
rounds shaping up to have interesting value.
6)……….WR?……1-3……………. Decent depth and 2 developing youngsters, but
utterly atrocious in top-end talent. Not much of a year for drafting or
signing FA receivers, though.
7)………..G?……...2-3…….……...Decent depth now, but very lacking in top-end
talent
8)………..LB?.…...5-7……………..2 FAs. But Roach, McClover, and even Wilson are
good bets to return
In spite of having a winning record, there’re almost no young b uilding
blocks, almost no difference-makers, and almost no position groups that
are off-limits for this aging bunch with the arrow pointing down.
Blitz Draft
Every week or two a Blitz staffer creates a giant mock (1 round free,
full 7 for subscribers). Here’s who I would have taken for us, using
player availability based on a recent version:
1) T Eugene Monroe, Virginia
Crabtree and Johnson are tempting, but Monroe is a near sure thing
2) FS Rashad Johnson, Alabama
3) HB James Davis, Clemson
Forte will badly need spelling next season
4) DE Connor Barwin, Cincinati
5) T Troy Kropog, Tulane
There’s some late steals, partly because a really high number of juniors
were included, and this is one I couldn’t pass
6) QB Tom Brandstater, Fresno State
7) FB Jovorskie Lane, Texas AM
Draft Watch
Players that fit the Bears’s needs, scheme, and draft slots
FS
Rashad Johnson, 6’0 185 4.50, Alabama
Derek Pegues, 5’10 190 4.45, Miss St
Small, fast transfer from CB. Real measurements could turn out too
small, though, a la Jonathon Hefney
Not a lot of pure FSs, although if Angelo20insists on continuing to go
the smart + slow route, that would present more options.
DE
Michael Johnson, 6’7 265 4.65, Ga Tech
Great measurables, but doesn’t make any plays
Greg Hardy, 6’4 265 4.75, Ole Miss(Jr)
2 week disciplinary suspension in 2007
Connor Barwin, 6’4 255 4.65, Cincinnati
Having a breakout season in first year playing defense
Matt Shaughnessy, 6’6 253 4.75, Wisc
Some injury concern. Has frame to get bigger
Larry English, 6’3 255 4.75, N Illinois
3 very productive seasons
Cody Brown, 6’2 250 4.70, Connecticut
Needs weight, even in Lovie’s system.
OT
(Aside from rare exceptions, I don’t consider anyone listed 6’5 or less
until I see an official measurement)
Eugene Monroe, 6’6 315 5.20, Virginia
Natural LT
Michael Oher, 6’5 320 5.20, Ole Miss
Overhyped and risky. But, that said, still a top prospect.
Phil Loadholt, 6’7 350 5.35, Oklahoma
Has to watch weight. RT only.
William Beatty, 6’6 310 5.15, Connecticut
Andre Smith, 6’4 350 5.30, Alabama(Jr)
Raves about his talent, but a very atypical ph ysique make him a better
G prospect than T
Eben Britton, 6’6 310 5.10, Arizona(Jr)
Troy Kropog, 6’6 295 5.00, Tulane
Small school project with LT athleticism
Alex Boone, 6’7 320 5.20, OSU
Kirk Barton’s better half. Probably a RT at the next level.
Fenuki Tupou, 6’6 330 5.25, Oregon
Pro RT. Powerful.
Coming Soon
Thoughts about team direction and offseason strategies. Updated
measurements and players of interest, following the All-Star games (1/17
and 1/24).
11/22/08
Recap
5-3) Bears 27 Detroit 23
Bears lose some players and just barely manage a comeback against the
newly improved and competitive Lions.
5-4) Tenn 21 Bears 14
Bears come up just short with an ineffective Grossman at the helm.
5-5) GB 37 Bears 3
A gimpy Orton returns to endure a savage pasting where the Bears are
buried in every phase of the game.
After losing only 3 of their first 8, the Bears have lost 2 of their
last 3. The points and yardage numbers indicate a similar slide over the
last few games. The Rams ought to put an end to the losing streak, but
turning the trend around enough for a postseason is iffy. Orton would
have to heal quickly, regain his stride, and really carry the team.
Where’s the D?
The finger-pointing is starting to pick up in intensity. Is the problem
the schemes or the players?
Clearly, the Bears are playing very soft coverage, which has prompted
comments around the league. The decline of the defense corresponds
fairly closely to when Bob Babich took over as DC for Ron Rivera. If the
Bears miss the playoffs and continue their current slump, Lovie may well
be ordered to dispose of him.
On the other hand, the decline of the defense also dates back pre tty
closely to Tommie’s first leg injury in 2006. The past difference-making
stars on this defense are: Tommie Harris, Brian Urlacher, Mike Brown,
and Charles Tillman. Brown has endured a slew of injuries on top of
marginal speed to begin with and will never be his old self again. Brian
Urlacher has an arthritic back condition and has been totally and
completely ordinary all year. Jim Morrissey in his prime would be an
upgrade. We might see some flashes from Urlacher before he fades away,
but he’s unlikely to have a good full season again. Charles Tillman has
one or both shoulders messed up. He’ll probably be fine after likely
off-season surgery, but for the rest of this season, he’s limited. His
signature tackle/strip turnovers are pretty well out of the question at
this point. The truly scary situation is Tommie Harris. This is his 3rd
straight year plagued by leg problems and his contribution has been
dismal. He used to be the disruptive key to this defense. He just
received a ton of money from the Bears and may have nothing to give in
return. If he’s done, then, despite having spent a R1, R2, and 2 R3s
over the last 5 drafts, we may still be completely inadequate at DT.
This defense requires interior penetration. Dusty is utterly worthless
in that regard. Tommie hasn’t been much better. Tank is long gone.
Harrison might be something, but is still pretty unknown. Everyone else
is ok depth at best. Imagine having to burn another to p pick on DT
after the last 4 plus the big-bucks payout to retain Tommie.
Roster
Odd roster choices abound.
The Bears promoted DE Baldwin from the PS, giving them an unheard of
10 Dlmen on the active roster. To make room, they released recently
acquired veteran starting FS Holt – from a position of dire need –
without testing him out at all.
They also added another WR to the PS, meaning 4 of the 8 PS slots are
WRs. The roster+PS has 9 receivers now.
While they do have room for all those linemen and receivers, they didn’t
have room for WR Mark Bradley, who was let go for nothing a month or so
back. The Chiefs picked him up and, after an unremarkable first game
there, he’s racking up numbers at a pace that would come out to over 80
catches and just under 1000 yards over a 16 game season. Scroll back to
previous columns for reminders of how obvious his ability was.
Roster
( ) contain contract years left at the end of the season. +1 shows RFA
and +2 ERFA status after their current contract expires. PUP is the
Physically Unable to Perform list, IR for Injured Reserve, and INJ is
used for a player hampered by injury, but not on the preceding lists.
Bold denotes star players, Underline shows a solid starter,
Normal for substandard starters to decent=2 0backups, and Italics
for poor/raw/ST only players.
Grades are how the unit has performed, relative to the rest of the NFL,
irrespective of health, expectation, experience, etc. Parentheses
contain my preseason prediction.
OL
St. Clair(FA), Beekman(2), Kreutz(2), Garza(3), Tait(1)
Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed
in.....Comment
1)………..FS....…..1-3…………….Brown is a 30+ FA with a long injury history,
Manning has only 1 yr left, and they prefer him at nickel back. The
Payne experiment demonstrates just how desperate they are.
2)………..DE.…….1-4……………Ogun, Idonije, and Anderson all expire after 09.
Ogunleye and Anderson have been invisible, they want Idonije to do ST
and rotational DT. Ogunleye 31.
3)………..OT?….…1-3..………….Williams has a potentially serious injury
concern, St Clair is a FA, Tait aging and a FA the year after.
4)……….HB?…….2-5…………….None of the backups has contributed anything with
the ball. Forte getting overworked.
5)………..QB?……2-6………… .Could go real prospect, vet backup, or mid-round
placeholder, but vet backup looks like the right call right now.
6)……….WR?……1-4……………. Decent depth, but very lacking in top-end talent
7)………..G?……...2-3…….……...Decent depth now, but very lacking in top-end
talent
8)………..LB?.…...5-7……………..2 FAs. But Roach, McClover, and even Wilson are
good bets to return
The needs just keep on growing. In spite of being a .500 team, there’re
almost no young building blocks, almost no difference-makers, and almost
no position groups that are off-limits.
Eye on the Future
Players that fit the Bears’ needs, scheme, and draft slots
HB
Rashad Jennings, 6’1 235 4.55 , Liberty
Jeremiah Johnson, 5’10 205 4.55, Oregon
Doesn’t have big upside – probably just a complementary back, but that’s
all we need. Injury issues.
Marlon Lucky, 6’0 210 4.50, Nebraska
Branden Ore, 5’11 200 4.50, West Liberty State
Donald Brown, 5’11 215 4.50 , Connecticut(Jr)
HB is usually more impacted by Jrs than any other position, but it’s
hard to predict which come out just yet.
10/26/08
Recap
3-2) Bears 34, Detroit 7
The Bears treat an embarrassing Lions team the same way the rest of the
NFL does.
3-3) Atlanta 22, Bears 20
Bears make a dramatic comeback, then give it away. Now 1-3 in close
games.
4-3) Bears 48, Minn 41
Bears use (what else?) special teams and turnovers to prevail in a wild
affair.
The Bears won a critical game in Week 7 and are now in a good position
to contend for either the division title or a wildcard. Only DB health
appears to stand in their way.
Up Arrow, Down Arrow
Orton’s play against Detroit didn’t move me much, given how pathetic
they’ve been. But even after discarding that one, he’s been performing
really well lately. The picture has shifted from an early QB being a
necessity, to a veteran backup being the more likely pickup.
Harris flashed on a couple plays against Minn, but mostly remains a
disappointment. Ogunleye has also been poor at providing pressure.
Forte’s numbers may be way down (to all the FFers out there), but he can
still play. The complete lack of contribution from any of the three
backups is a concern.
Olsen has been utilized much more effectively as a receiver.
The Oline has held up better than they look on paper.
While still solid, Urlacher and Brown both haven’t shown any of the
playmaking that used to be their hallmark.
The secondary is absolutely battered. All 6 corners were hurt in the
game and/or on the injury list before the game. Tillman’s is probably
chronic and will hamper him all season. Vasher’s has been more serious
than the team let on (and it was unclear whether he was really himself
after last season’s groin tear, even before the wrist problem). Bowman
is done for the year. The bye week comes at a desperately needed time.
Angelo found a surprisingly good S available (Terrence Holt, a full-time
starter for the last 2 yrs), but dressing enough CBs will still be a
problem. Ty Law may join eventually, if no one else grabs him first.
Has Anyone Seen My Run Game?
After exploding out of the box, in the first couple games, the rushing
offense has been stuck in neutral.
It's partly the run blocking, but a major part of it is also OC Ron
Turner doing a great job of taking what is there.
Opening the season with a rookie R2 HB, teams didn't respect Forte that
much. Turner ran it down their throats. When teams saw Forte's huge
numbers and Orton's puny ones, they shifted their gameplans to stop the
run. Turner turned Orton loose and he responded. At some point, you have
to think teams will go start playing pass or balanced, at which point
the running effectiveness should come up and the pass effectiveness come
down a bit.
Turner has always been excellent at adapting to the tools he has and
what the defense gives. In 2005, when he had a terrible rookie QB, he
relied heavily on Thomas Jones and rode him and an ultraconservative
gameplan into the playoffs.
In 2006, when defenses continued to expect nothing but run, he surprised
them by letting Rex throw, and he tore them up with play action and
Berrian double moves deep for a few games. Once teams started respecting
the pass, Rex fizzled, but that freed up the running game to get back on
track, and Jones (along with special teams and defense) carried them the
rest of the way.
(However, it’s also worth noting that Orton has been making much tougher
throws than Grossman did in 2006. As I mentioned at the time, to mostly
willfully deaf ears, Rex was racking up gaudy stats by hitting receivers
that were wide, wide, all by themselves, wide open – the majority of
them passes that every QB in the league could have made. Since Kyle has
been making more difficult throws for his numbers, I think his likely
comedown when defenses adjust will probably be far milder than Rex’s.
Plus, Orton is mentally tougher and can handle the ‘less easy’ pickings
better.)
Midterm Grades
( ) contain contract years left at the end of the season. +1 shows RFA
and +2 ERFA status after their current contract expires. PUP is the
Physically Unable to Perform list, IR for Injured Reserve, and INJ is
used for a player hampered by injury, but not on the preceding lists.
Bold denotes star players, Underline shows a solid starter,
Normal for substandard starters to decent backups, and Italics
for poor/raw/ST only players.
Grades are how the unit has performed, relative to the rest of the NFL,
irrespective of health, expectation, experience, etc. Parentheses
contain my preseason prediction.
OL
St. Clair(FA), Beekman(2), Kreutz(2), Garza(3), Tait(1)
Briggs makes some big hits, but I still say almost every big run centers
on him overcommitting and leaving his side exposed. Urlacher has been
just another guy most of the time.
(B) C
S
Payne(2), Brown(FA)
Steltz(3), DManning(1-INJ)
Holt(?)
McGowan(FA-IR)
Not much speed out there, which partly explains why reports are that
they play too deep and soft. Big breakdowns are down, at least.
Not bad, considering their health. Tillman and Vasher may remain
hampered all season, though, which would be awfully tough to overcome.
(B) C
LS
Mannelly(2)
K
Gould(5)
P
Maynard(2)
KR
Hester-INJ, Manning-INJ, Davis
PR
Hester-INJ, Vasher-INJ, Bennett
Injuries and WR time have made Hester largely ineffective. Bears
actually had a few breakdowns (blocked FG and painful kickoff issues in
the Atlanta game). Still a net plus, but not like it has been.
(A++) B+
2009 Shopping List
Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed
in.....Comment
1)………..OT..….…1-3.………….Williams has a potentially serious injury
concern, St Clair is a FA, Tait aging and a FA the year after.
2)………..DE.…….1-4……………Ogun, Idonije, and Anderson all expire after 09.
Ogunleye and Anderson have been invisible, they want Idonije to do ST
and rotational DT. Ogunleye 31.
3)………..FS?...…..1-4…………….Brown is a 30+ FA with a long injury history,
Manning has only 1 yr left, and they prefer him at nickel back. Holt
could solve this, though.
4)……….HB?…….2-4…………….None of the backups has contributed anything with
the ball. Forte getting overworked.
5)………..QB?……2-5…………….Could go real prospect, vet backup, or mid-round
placeholder, but vet backup looks like the right call right now. Just a
rancid year for QBs.
6)……….WR?……1-4……………. Decent depth, but very lacking in top-end talent
7)………..G?……...2-3…….……...Decent depth now, but very lacking in top-end
talent
8)………..LB?.…...5-7……………..2 FAs. But Roach, McClover, and even Wilson are
good bets to return
Eye on the Future
Players that fit the Bears’s needs, scheme, and draft slots
FS
Rashad Johnson, 6’0 185 4.50, Alabama
Derek Pegues, 5’10 190 4.45, Miss St
Small, fast transfer from CB
Not a lot of pure FSs, although if Angelo insists on continuing to go
the smart + slow route, that would present more options.