Misc

Another possible solution at WR got away – Mike Hass was signed by Seattle. It’s a real shame they didn’t have the sense to evaluate him after we were eliminated in 07 or while Booker and Davis were dropping everything in 08.
 

As expected, Tillman had reconstructive shoulder surgery as soon as the season ended.

Angelo had an interview where he seems resigned to Urlacher being past his prime. Angelo also sounded smitten by Danieal Manning. He talked like Mike Brown is finally done here, because they want Manning on the field more and the money to give him a medium-sized extension!

Are You In Or Out?
 

Deciding when your window is, and when to put your resources into trying to win immediately and when to rebuild with an eye down the road is a crucial team evaluation task.

I think if the Bears decide to go all in on 2009, they have a decent shot at doing better than this season - ie, going to the playoffs. But being a serious contender? I think the odds are pretty slim. Reasonable best case, I see them winning about 10, advancing maybe a round into the playoffs, thinking they're really close again, playing for 2010, then watching the wheels fall off (which also has a pretty decent shot of happening in 2009, too).

I said it at the time - and this year wasn't enough of a surprise to chan ge my mind - that the window for this incarnation closed during the 2007 run when Rex washed out, Miller got hurt again, Reuban Brown got hurt again, Mike Brown got hurt again, they decided to dump Moose, Urlacher developed a chronic condition, Daniel Manning was a disaster at FS, they decided they hated RMJ, Berrian was let go, and Okwo, Bazuin, Wolfe, and Benson were all misses.
That's way too many losses to absorb at once without rebuilding for a bit.

They did cut some dead wood and get a tiny bit younger for 2008, but not much. Potential losses within the next 0-2 years of Urlacher, Brown, Tait, Kreutz, St Clair, Clark, Vasher, Harris, Ogunleye is a lot of key personnel to churn through. I have a hard time seeing them bringing in talent so fast that they can replace those losses and get even better.

Given that Lovie is guaranteed at least 2 more years, I think rebuilding is the way to go right now. From interviews, it’s quite clear the key figures are thinking the exact opposite. 

 

WR

Because I’d rather be building this team for the future, I’m not as hell-bent on getting a receiver as many others are. Not that I wouldn’t like some more talent there, but I don’t rank it our top 09 need, just because it was obviously our top 08 deficiency.

Receivers typically have a slow learning curve, and a rookie probably won't be contributing until at least 2010, if not 11. By that time, I'm really not sure how urgent a need WR will be. Hester is finally winning me over, and I think by the end of 09/very beginning of 10 he will be a legit starter. And Bennett was taken in R3 (and I had him slotted late 2), which is a point where you're anticipating a starter quality FL. As for a 3rd receiver - I think Olsen really does/can function as this team's 3rd WR (and does it quite well).
Am I sure Hester and Bennett will pan out? Of course not. But we've got young, high picks at those 2 slots with a solid chance of making it. Before I go stacking more good prospects there than I have positions to play them at, I'd rather work on the positions where I've got nothing lined up.
At DE, what have we got to replace Ogun when he's sent to the glue factory (which, it appears in retrospect, should have already happened a year ago)? Anderson's been playing and been a stink bomb 2 yrs running, as a starter and as a rotational player.
At FS, we've got absolutely, positively no legit immediate players or legit prospects. Nothing at all. (Unless you move Tillman, which I think then creates a serious weakness at CB you have to fill instead.)
And at OT, even supposing Williams is fine now, Tait is old, and St Clair is fairly old and probably leaving in FA, I suspect. Again, nothing young at all there to pin your hopes on.
If we can use our top 3 picks at those 3 positions, then I think we've got either a passable starter and/or legit starter-potential young/developing prospect at every position. Then if Bennett were to look bad in 09, for example, then I'd be after quicker FA help.
 

Coaching
 

The fans wanted Babich gone. The players all bit their tongues and carefully said "something has to change", which is code for "I don’t want to be cut, but I hate playing in our defense".
 

Result?
 

Everyone was fired, except DC Bob Babich, who gained additional responsibilities.

Really.

DB coach – gone. LB coach – gone. DL coach – gone. (and this isn’t the first position coach housecleaning of the Lovie era, either) Lovie’s best buddy, Babich – still here.

There’s more, though. Another Lovie Buddy, ex-Lion HC, Rod Marinelli, was brought in to work on the defense. Would he become the new DC, with Babich busted back down to LB coach? Of course not. a) that would embarrass Lovie Buddy Number One. b) that would make sense.

What we got instead was Marinelli as Asst HC/DL coach, Babich as DC/LB coach, and Lovie as HC saying that he wants to be ‘more involved’ in the defense, including the play-calling, next season.
 

So what does that all add up to? Could be a few different meanings –

QBs

Charlie Batch, Pittsburgh Steelers
Kyle Boller, Baltimore Ravens
Brooks Bollinger, Dallas Cowboys
Todd Bouman, Baltimore Ravens
David Carr, New York Giants
Kerry Collins, Tennessee Titans
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Cincinnati Bengals
Charlie Frye, Seattle Seahawks
Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Gibran Hamdan, Buffalo Bills
Joey Harrington, New Orleans Saints
Byron Leftwich, Pittsburgh Steelers
J.P. Losman, Buffalo Bills
Jamie Martin, San Francisco 49ers
Luke McCown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dan Orlovsky, Detroit Lions
J.T. O'Sullivan, San Francisco 49ers
Patrick Ramsey, Denver Broncos
Chris Simms, Tennessee Titans
Brian St. Pierre, Arizona Cardinals
Marques Tuaisosopo, Oakland Raiders
Kurt Warn er, Arizona Cardinals
Anthony Wright, New York Giants
 

There’s 3 accomplished old men out there (Warner, Garcia, Collins). Those are the guys to pursue if you think there’s still room in the Bear window (which I don’t).

If you’re thinking about rebuilding with Orton and a decent young vet with some upside remaining, there’s at least 10 that fit the bill adequately, and none that particularly stand out much. Leftwich and Simms had the most success, but both have had bad injuries, may not be the same anymore, and are now risky choices.

2009 Shopping List
 

Our early picks should be roughly 18, 49, 85, and probably an early compensatory pick (97-100ish?) for Berrian.

Our FA position is discussed further down, in the Mailbag.
 

Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed in.....Comment

1)………..FS....…..1-3…………….Brown is a 30+ FA with a long injury history, Manning has only 1 yr left, and they prefer him at nickel back. The Payne experiment demonstrates just how desperate they are.

2)………..DE.…….1-4……………Ogun, Idonije, and Anderson all expire after 09. Ogunleye and Anderson have been invisible, they want Idonije to do ST and rotational DT. Ogunleye 31.

3)……8 0..OT?….…1-3..………….Williams has a potentially serious injury concern, St Clair is a FA, Tait aging and a FA the year after.

4)……….HB?…….2-5…………….None of the backups has contributed anything with the ball. Forte getting seriously overworked.

5)……….WR?……1-3……………. Decent depth and 2 developing youngsters, but utterly atrocious in immediate top-end talent. Not much of a year for drafting or signing FA receivers, though.

6)………..QB?……1-7……………. Anything’s possible - could go real prospect, vet backup, or mid-round placeholder. Terrible top prospects, but late rounds shaping up to have interesting value. Since they like Hanie, signs are pointing more to veteran backup.

7)………..G?……...2-3…….……...Decent depth now, but very lacking in top-end talent

8)………..LB?.…...5-7……………..2 FAs. But Roach, McClover, and even Wilson are good bets to return
 

In spite of having a winning record, there’re almost no young building blocks, almost no difference-makers, and almost no position groups that are off-limits for this aging bunch with the arrow pointing down.
 

Blitz maintains a list of its top 500 players. Here’s who I would have taken for us, using player availability based on a recent version and my guesses at our eventual draft slots.
 

1) OT Eben Britton, Arizona

Not really thrilled about this, but usually 18 ends up being a reach if we can’t trade

2) FS Rashad Johnson, Alabama

We should be so lucky to have a shot at him in R2

3) DE Robert Ayers, Tenn

Might need another DE again next year after this, but since I figure Ogun and Anderson to be gone, we probably need 2 anyway.

3C*) WR Demetrius Byrd, LSU

Probable comp pick for Berrian turns into another R3 speed receiver

4) T/G Troy Kropog, Tulane

Physically talented ex-teammate of Forte’s

5) QB Tom Brandstater, Fresno State

QB not planned, but I like Brandstater a lot more than Chris, I guess

6) HB Kory Sheets, Purdue

7) FB Jorvorskie Lane, Texas AM
 

Players that fit the Bears’s needs, scheme, and draft slots well. Not a complete ranking of the position.
 

Rashad Jennings, 6’1 235 4.55 , Liberty

 Not fast, shifty, or much of a receiver, but a good bruiser back.

James Davis, 5’10 207 4.50, Clemson

 Not an accomplished receiver, blocker, or a big breakaway threat

Marlon Lucky, 6’0 210 4.50, Nebraska
 Very well-rounded player. Physically, similar stylistically to Forte. Bafflingly underrated by some after sharing carries as a senior.

Cedric Peerman, 5’9 210 4.50, Virginia

 Good receiver, lots of injuries

Kory Sheets, 5’11 205 4.50, Purdue

 Good receiver and blocker

Glen Coffee, 6’1 200 4.50, Alabama

 Will have to add weight without losing too much speed

Branden Ore, 5’11 200 4.50, West Liberty State
 

Sadly, Coffee and Ore may not be going to Combine
 

Rashad Johnson, 6’0 195 4.50, Alabama

 On the rise after the Senior Bowl

Louis Delmas, 5’11 195 4.50, W Michigan

 Good intangibles, mediocre measurables

William Moore, 6’0 225 4.55, Missouri

 Very unclear what position he fits well – if any. Needs to drop a lot of weight to play pro FS.

Derek Pegues, 5’9 190 4.45, Miss St
 Small, fast transfer from CB. Size less than ideal, although fairly similar to young Mike Brown.
 

Not a lot of pure FSs, although if Angelo insists on continuing to go the smart + slow route, t hat would present more options.
 

Everette Brown, 6’4 250 4.70, Fl State(Jr)

 This has to be the top thought right now, if he should last to 18

Clint Sintim, 6’3 250 4.70, Virginia

 Better 3-4 candidate, but could play LB/DE (a la Colvin) or maybe DE in a 4-3

Michael Johnson, 6’6 260 4.65, Ga Tech
 Great measurables, but production lags a bit. Unbelievably passed on the Senior Bowl, despite not being an elite prospect.

Connor Barwin, 6’3 255 4.65, Cincinnati

 Having a breakout season in first year playing defense

Larry English, 6’2 255 4.75, N Illinois

 3 very productive seasons, but may have to play in a 3-4

Robert Ayers, 6’3 275 4.75, Tenn

 Senior Bowl propels him into relevancy

Paul Kruger, 6’4 265 4.70, Utah

Matt Shaughnessy, 6’6 253 4.75, Wisc

 Some injury concern. Has frame to get bigger
 

Jason Smith, 6’4 300 5.20, Baylor

 Athletic LT, but undersized and from a quirky offense.

Michael Oher, 6’5 310 5.20, Ole Miss

 Overhyped and risky. But, that said, still a top prospect.

Eben Britton, 6’6 310 5.10, Arizona(Jr)

Phil Loadholt, 608 340 5.35, Oklahoma

 Probably RT only. Long arms.

Andre Smith, 6’4 350 5.30, Alabama(Jr)

 Raves about his talent, but physique and footspeed make him a better G prospect.

William Beatty, 6’6 290 5.15, Connecticut

 Finesse T could use some weight.

Troy Kropog, 6’5 315 5.00, Tulane

 Small school project with LT athleticism. Mixed reviews.

Jamon Meredith, 6’5 300 5.20, South Carolina

Fenuki Tupou, 6’6 330 5.25, Oregon

 Pro RT. Powerful.
 

Matthew Stafford, 6’3 230, Georgia (Jr)

 Will only be 21, but has almost 3 full yrs starting.

Mark Sanchez 6’3 225, USC (Jr)

 Needs a lot more development, but came out because Bradford didn’t.

Josh Freeman 6’6 250, K State (Jr)

 Giant with a powerful gun, but also extremely raw.

Rhett Bomar, 6’2 225, Sam Houston State

Nate Davis, 6’2 215, Ball State

 Strong arm, funky mechanics, small

Tom Brandstater, 6’5 220, Fresno State

 Well-rounded player

David Johnson, 6’2 220, Tulsa

 Only 1yr experience

Hunter Cantwell, 6’4 230, Louisville

 Strong arm, only201 yr of experience.

Curtis Painter, 6’4 220, Purdue

 3 yrs as full-time starter

Nathan Brown, 6’1 215, Central Arkansas

 Weak arm

Rudy Carpenter, 6’2 200 Arizona State

Graham Harrell, 6’2 215, Texas Tech
 Every year or so, the new Texas Tech QB with crazy numbers is supposed to be ‘the real deal – not like all the other Texas Tech QBs with crazy numbers who had no pro impact.’ They never are. Weak arm.

Cullen Harper, 6’3 225, Clemson

 Trainwreck senior season has dropped him from a top 25 to a top 250 prospect

Chase Daniel, 5’11 220 Missouri
 Major height concerns and a mediocre arm, but jaw-dropping college production and quality intangibles, too.

Chase Holbrook, 6’5 240, NM State

 Monster numbers in 06, tailed off a bit since.

Mike Reilly, 6’3 215, Central Washington

Mike Teel, 6’3 220, Rutgers

Willie Tuitama, 6’3 220 Arizona

JP Wilson, 6’2 215, Alabama

Awful at the top, but I’m growing really intrigued by some of the value likely to be around in R4-7…which is where all but the top couple of these guys belong. Because of the way they’re all bunched together in quality, it’s entirely reasonable for a QB to be=2 08^th on one evaluator’s list and 25^th on someone else’s. There’s very little separation in this unimpressive crew.
 

Feel free to write me (click blue name in the upper right) with your questions. On the down side, I don’t have access to some of the great stats they do on the official team site. Also, I’m mighty busy, and I hope you’ll be patient if it takes me a while to reply. But, on the flip side, I do eventually reply to most questions. And, unlike the team site, I’m not constrained by having to toe the company line* in my replies.
 

In this era of Internet information availability, finding accurate and detailed cap info is still extremely difficult. It’s also not uncommon for two seemingly reliable sources to publish highly contradictory within a week or two of each other.
 

Typically, the Bears have managed their cap quite well (not cheapness, but actual skill!). They’ve virtually never had ‘over the cap slash and burn’ issues. Usually they have lots of room left as the end of the season approaches, and they do creative deals with veterans to extend their contracts and pay them out of the current year’s cap for service they’ll=2 0get in future years (a type of front-loaded extension). In 2008, the Bears used nearly every dollar they had available – despite entering the season with a sizeable amount remaining, IIRC. They spent most of that leftover amount on a quirky contract for CB Marcus Hamilton (stolen midseason when the Bucs tried to drop him back to the PS) which boils down to a sneaky way to take 10M of available 2008 cap space and transfer it to 2009, making 2009’s pot bigger.
 

Recently, Brad Biggs (Chicago Sun-Times) did a follow-up to a Kevin Seifert (ESPN) piece – the upshot of which is that the Bears should have about 27M available in a 123M cap for 2009.

One important thing neither piece mentions is how many players (and how many key players) are under contract at the time of those numbers. For example, one team may end the season with 53 players on their roster, have 15 players (all starters) becoming free agents in the offseason, and a cap number of 90M. Another team might end the season with 53 player on their roster, have only 4 free agents (none of them starters) with contracts that expire at the end of the season, and a cap number of 90M. Clearly, Team B is in much better position, because they have 33M to work with and very few holes left to fill up. Team A has 33M to work with, but 33M to replace/re-sign 15 starters isn’t going to go very far.

Biggs did report the team’s leading cap numbers f or 2009 as approximately:
1) Brian Urlacher 9.7 million
2) Tommie Harris 9.1
3) Devin Hester 6.9
4) Lance Briggs 6.8
5) Adewale Ogunleye 6.4
6) John Tait 5.4
7) Nathan Vasher 4.9
8) Charles Tillman 4.8

Worth noting is that 6/8 are defense. That’s where the team spends draft picks and $ both and that’s why the defense is almost always better than the offense around here. Also worth noting is that only 3/8 (Briggs, Tait, Tillman) are worth or even remotely close to worth that much, based on 2008 performance. (Maybe Hester for a 4^th, if you project based off his last few games only.)
 

I’m expecting a source will have a good update/refined estimate for 2009 total team cap in roughly a month or so – a bit before free agency kicks off (Feb 27), I hope. In the meantime, here’s a site with some good general info on the salary cap and free agency (links on the left).

http://www.askthecommish.com/salarycap/numbers.asp

 

* Today’s unexpected grammar lesson: it’s "TOE", not "TOW", doggone it!

http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/toe-the-line.html
 

Possibly a short update in Feb

A giant update in mid March – my post-combine full draft board with 256+ slotted players!

Recap
 

6-5) Bears 27 St Louis 3
Bears pound a team that was bad before their best players got hurt
 

6-6) Minn 34 Bears 14
After an encouraging start, the Bears absorb their second butchering by a division rival in the last 3 games.  Failing to score from the 2, then giving up a 99 yd TD, breaks their spirit.

7-6)  Bears 23 Jax 10
Bears take care of business, thumping the weak with consistency.  Orton returns to form, Hester fumbles a lot, Adams and Idonije provide a spark.

8-6) Bears 27, NO 24 (OT)
More of the usual.  Special teams and takeaways bail out an anemic offense.

9-6) Bears 17, GB 14 (OT)
Bears get off to a very slow start with Forte gimpy.  He gets back on track late and special teams (great kicking, FG block, and fluke fumble recovery off a punt) makes the difference.

9-7) Houston 31, Bears 24
Defense helpless.  Bears eliminated from playoffs by this game.

 

( ) contain contract years left at the end of the season. +1 shows RFA and +2 ERFA status after their current contract expires. PUP is the Physically Unable to Perform list, IR for Injured Reserve, and INJ is used for a player hampered by injury, but not on the preceding lists. Bold denotes star players, Underline shows a sol id starter, Normal for substandard starters to decent backups, and Italics for poor/raw/ST only players.
 

Position grades are based on how effective the unit was, relative to the rest of the NFL. [ ]s contain my preseason prediction.
 

OL

St. Clair(FA), Beekman(2), Kreutz(2), Garza(3), Tait(1)

Williams(4), Buenning(1), Metcalf(3)

Reed(PS), Balogh(PS)

Miller(FA-IR)
 

[A battered Oline had highs and lows in the preseason. But when defenses start playing for keeps and pressuring harder come the regular season, I’d plan on seeing more of the lows. D+]
 

Smaller finesse players position fairly well, but don’t push very much.

Whether St Clair comes back, following a passable 1^st year starting, will be key to the offseason strategy here. Beekman was tolerable in his first year of duty, but doesn’t really have adequate G size. He’ll probably take over for Olin, eventually. It’s unfortunate Buenning never got a shot. He does have the body for G and was previously a starter there. Williams also got next to no work, so he’s a total unknown going into 09. Kreutz and Tait are still hanging in fine, but neither should be penciled in for too much longer. Kreutz is showing more decline than Tait, which is not unexpected, since he’s somewhat undersized. It would be a shock if Miller plays in 2009.

QB

Orton(1), Grossman(FA), Hanie(2+1)
 

[While Orton looked good against a bad SF team when he had outstanding protection, it’s hard to envision him cracking the 80 (rating) barrier. Cleveland brought back 2005 memories. D+]
 

Like 2006 Rex, Orton started hot, then faded away. You might be able to put some blame on his ankle, but his outlook has dimmed back to only slightly better than opening day. How much they commit to him and how much the hedge their bet with another option will be another critical offseason decision. Grossman was ineffective in a short fill-in stretch and Hanie never played.

 

WR

Hester(5), Booker(1)

Lloyd(FA), Davis(2)

Rideau(1+2?), Bennett(3)

Aromashodu(2)

Hass(PS), Broussard(PS)
 

[D-]
 

Just miserable. Easily the worst WR group in the NFL.

Bennett, Rideau, and Hass saw virtually no time. Lloyd had a short hot streak early, but then hurt his knee. After a long layoff that raised eyebrows, he was largely invisible upon return. The unit is so impoverished, he could return, but no one will complain if he doesn’t, either. Everyone’s sorry Booker came back to Chicago to tarnish his goodwill. The presumptive starting FL contributed very littl e beyond a litany of drops. Davis also committed far too many drops and worsened his stock. The only bright spot in the entire group was Hester. While he still has a long way to go, at least he continues to make noticeable improvement.

TE

Clark(2), Olsen(3), Davis(3)

Mines(PS)
 

[A-]
 

While Olsen has eclipsed his numbers, Clark remains the everydown starter. Olsen has gotten much more utilization and produced well in the passing game, however, he is also more and more clearly not developing into an in-line TE. Defenses like to treat Olsen as a WR and go nickel against him. So he gets used as a pumped-up slot receiver (he’s the best receiver on the team, incidentally) or even more of an h-B sometimes. If anyone on the roster will eventually take over Clark’s starting job, it will have to be Davis, however, he’s not getting any work at this time, with the quality he’s got in front of him.

HB

Forte(3-INJ), Jones(FA), Peterson(1)

Wolfe(2-IR)
 

[No idea what to expect from this crew. C+]
 

Forte was a godsend for the 2008 Bears, accounting for an enormous chunk of the offense. He did everything – run, catch, and block – and he handled himself like a veteran from Day 1. Unfortunately, he also got badly overworked – partly because his backups weren’t much good and partly because this staff doesn’t believe in making changes unless absolutely forced to. Jones may or may not have been recovered from his knee injury, but regardless, he spent the year just gathering dust. The team used up 2 more roster spots on guys that are good/very good special teamers, but nothing more.

FB

McKie(3), Davis(1+2?)
 

[McKie is neither a big punisher or a great ‘skill player’. C-]
 

FB was never a big part of the offense, and it’s declined with the increased double TE sets to accommodate Olsen. McKie and Davis were serviceable.

DL

Ogunleye(1), Harris(4-INJ), Adams(2), Brown(3)

Anderson(1), Idonije(1), Harrison(3), Toeaina(1), Baldwin(3)

Clermond(PS)

Dvoracek(1-IR)
 

[Unreal depth (thanks to pouring resources into it constantly) and highly touted. But in the preseason they absolutely did not get anything done. B]
 

Tommie Harris is ideally the key to the defense. He was genuinely, embarrassingly bad for the first third of the year, before warming up to be sporadically useful later in the season. His future health/outlook is very uncertain and crucial to the team’s future. Interior mate Dvoracek started the season20solidly enough, but seemed to wear down before getting hurt. He also has no penetration ability, which the scheme is designed around. Adams was off and on successful as his replacement. Idonije and Harrison were useful rotational backups.

On the outside, Alex Brown is a consistent, very well-rounded overachiever – which qualifies him as the year’s best defensive lineman, unfortunately. Ogunleye has good character and still plays the run pretty well. His modest sacks overstate his pass rush, though – 4/5 came in our few easy victories. Anderson continued to regress and will be lucky to hang around much longer.

Overall, this unit is supposed to be the centerpiece of the team, but it fell well short.

LB

Roach(ERFA?), Urlacher(3), Briggs(5)

Hillenmeyer(2-INJ), Williams(1), Gardner(1), LaRocque(3)

McClover(FA-IR)

Riley(PS)
 

[A very uninspiring preseason. B]
 

Urlacher didn’t miss a single play or say a word about his back, but he’s also just not been an impact player anymore. His tackles are down over 25% and he logged no sacks. Maybe our terrible safety situation has forced Urlacher’s attention more towards coverage, but it’s hard to be optimistic about his future. I’ve always found Briggs to be overrated, but he kept his desire intact after cashing in the20big contract this year. In fact, he may have stepped his game up a bit. He’s not fast, but is a good tackler who hits hard, durable, and intense. On the strong side, Hillenmeyer has been plagued by minor injuries and lost his starting job to undrafted newcomer Nick Roach. Surprisingly, Jamar Williams isn’t even in the mix for spot duty anymore. LaRocque and McClover are ST specialists.

S

Payne(2), Steltz(3)

Worrell(?), DManning(1)

Brown(FA-IR), McGowan(FA-IR)
 

[Players keep shifting roles here constantly. Which is another way of saying no one is stepping up and proving themselves. D+]
 

Payne is off to a decent start as a SS. The recent experiment of flipping him and Brown is downright depressing and really underscores the complete lack of FS talent on this team, though. Brown actually stayed healthy for the majority of the season. The switch to SS, however, is an admission that he’s lost at least half a step from originally subpar speed. After playing poorly at FS for two years, Danieal Manning is finally catching on as a role player. He’s delivered a few sparks by playing nickelback, blitzing from the outside, and returning kickoffs. But he doesn’t really play S anymore. Steltz underwhelmed greatly in brief fill-in duty. McGowan went down early with yet another injury and Worrell was brought back when the ranks got depleted.

CB
Tillman(5-INJ), Graham(2), McBride(2), Hamilton(ERFA)

Burgess(PS)

Vasher(4-IR), Bowman(3-IR)
 

[B]
 

Lack of pressure made this group look worse than they really are. Tillman is big, fast, smart, a great tackler, an expert at stripping the ball, and a high character leader. Corey Graham really stepped up with the increased opportunity in 08. He’s like a lesser version of Tillman and it will be hard to keep him out of the starting lineup in 09. Vasher had a season to forget, with spotty play and lots of injury problems. McBride had a quiet year, mostly serving as a special teamer and insurance policy. Bowman provided a little excitement before quickly landing on IR.

LS

Mannelly(2)

K

Gould(5)

P

Maynard(2)

KR

Manning

PR

[Really, I don’t think any other Special Teams unit in the modern era of the NFL belongs in the team photo with this group, with the exception of the 2006 and 2007 versions of it. A++]
 

Gould and Maynard remained top-notch. Hester’s return magic utterly disappeared with him devoting more energy to playing receiver. After he finally lost the KR job, Manning jumped i n and provided a lot of spark there. In general, special teams was above average, but far from what it has been recently.

The coaching staff did a good job of keeping the team unified and focussed. The Bears showed excellent heart and effort, as usual.

Excluding special teams, the staff did a fairly poor job of strategizing, particularly on defense. They were predictable and frequently beaten by halftime/in-game adjustments. They also didn’t switch up personnel (to evaluate/season youngsters or to try something different when the incumbent wasn’t working out) nearly as much as they should have – only when forced by injury.

The way their strengths and weaknesses work out, it means you tend not to get really bad seasons (their desire prevents it), but you tend not to get really good seasons, either (their schemes are ordinary, at best – only great personnel could make the team great). I’d rather have a HC/staff whose strength is their strategizing.

 

Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed in.....Comment

1)………..FS....…..1-3…………….Brown is a 30+ FA with a long injury history, Manning has only 1 yr left, and they prefer him at nickel back. The Payne experiment demonstrates just how desperate they are.

2)………..DE.…….1-4……………Ogun, Idonije, and Anderson all expire after 09. Ogunleye and Anderson have been invisible, they want Idonije to do ST and rotational DT. Ogunleye 31.

3)………..OT?….…1-3..………….Williams has a potentially serious injury concern, St Clair is a FA, Tait aging and a FA the year after.

4)……….HB?…….2-5…………….None of the backups has contributed anything with the ball. Forte getting seriously overworked.

5)………..QB?……1-7……………. Anything’s possible - could go real prospect, vet backup, or late-round placeholder. Terrible top prospects, but late rounds shaping up to have interesting value.

6)……….WR?……1-3……………. Decent depth and 2 developing youngsters, but utterly atrocious in top-end talent. Not much of a year for drafting or signing FA receivers, though.

7)………..G?……...2-3…….……...Decent depth now, but very lacking in top-end talent

8)………..LB?.…...5-7……………..2 FAs. But Roach, McClover, and even Wilson are good bets to return
 

In spite of having a winning record, there’re almost no young b uilding blocks, almost no difference-makers, and almost no position groups that are off-limits for this aging bunch with the arrow pointing down.
 

Every week or two a Blitz staffer creates a giant mock (1 round free, full 7 for subscribers). Here’s who I would have taken for us, using player availability based on a recent version:
 

1) T Eugene Monroe, Virginia

Crabtree and Johnson are tempting, but Monroe is a near sure thing

2) FS Rashad Johnson, Alabama

3) HB James Davis, Clemson

Forte will badly need spelling next season

4) DE Connor Barwin, Cincinati

5) T Troy Kropog, Tulane

There’s some late steals, partly because a really high number of juniors were included, and this is one I couldn’t pass

6) QB Tom Brandstater, Fresno State

7) FB Jovorskie Lane, Texas AM

 

Draft Watch

Players that fit the Bears’s needs, scheme, and draft slots

 

Rashad Johnson, 6’0 185 4.50, Alabama

Derek Pegues, 5’10 190 4.45, Miss St

Small, fast transfer from CB. Real measurements could turn out too small, though, a la Jonathon Hefney
 

Not a lot of pure FSs, although if Angelo20insists on continuing to go the smart + slow route, that would present more options.
 

Michael Johnson, 6’7 265 4.65, Ga Tech

Great measurables, but doesn’t make any plays

Greg Hardy, 6’4 265 4.75, Ole Miss(Jr)

2 week disciplinary suspension in 2007

Connor Barwin, 6’4 255 4.65, Cincinnati

Having a breakout season in first year playing defense

Matt Shaughnessy, 6’6 253 4.75, Wisc

Some injury concern. Has frame to get bigger

Larry English, 6’3 255 4.75, N Illinois

3 very productive seasons

Cody Brown, 6’2 250 4.70, Connecticut

Needs weight, even in Lovie’s system.

 

(Aside from rare exceptions, I don’t consider anyone listed 6’5 or less until I see an official measurement)
 

Eugene Monroe, 6’6 315 5.20, Virginia

Natural LT

Michael Oher, 6’5 320 5.20, Ole Miss

Overhyped and risky. But, that said, still a top prospect.

Phil Loadholt, 6’7 350 5.35, Oklahoma

Has to watch weight. RT only.

William Beatty, 6’6 310 5.15, Connecticut

Andre Smith, 6’4 350 5.30, Alabama(Jr)

Raves about his talent, but a very atypical ph ysique make him a better G prospect than T

Eben Britton, 6’6 310 5.10, Arizona(Jr)

Troy Kropog, 6’6 295 5.00, Tulane

Small school project with LT athleticism

Alex Boone, 6’7 320 5.20, OSU

Kirk Barton’s better half. Probably a RT at the next level.

Fenuki Tupou, 6’6 330 5.25, Oregon

Pro RT. Powerful.

 

Thoughts about team direction and offseason strategies. Updated measurements and players of interest, following the All-Star games (1/17 and 1/24).

5-3) Bears 27 Detroit 23

Bears lose some players and just barely manage a comeback against the newly improved and competitive Lions.

5-4) Tenn 21 Bears 14

Bears come up just short with an ineffective Grossman at the helm.

5-5) GB 37 Bears 3

A gimpy Orton returns to endure a savage pasting where the Bears are buried in every phase of the game.

 

After losing only 3 of their first 8, the Bears have lost 2 of their last 3. The points and yardage numbers indicate a similar slide over the last few games. The Rams ought to put an end to the losing streak, but turning the trend around enough for a postseason is iffy. Orton would have to heal quickly, regain his stride, and really carry the team.

The finger-pointing is starting to pick up in intensity. Is the problem the schemes or the players?

Clearly, the Bears are playing very soft coverage, which has prompted comments around the league. The decline of the defense corresponds fairly closely to when Bob Babich took over as DC for Ron Rivera. If the Bears miss the playoffs and continue their current slump, Lovie may well be ordered to dispose of him.

On the other hand, the decline of the defense also dates back pre tty closely to Tommie’s first leg injury in 2006. The past difference-making stars on this defense are: Tommie Harris, Brian Urlacher, Mike Brown, and Charles Tillman. Brown has endured a slew of injuries on top of marginal speed to begin with and will never be his old self again. Brian Urlacher has an arthritic back condition and has been totally and completely ordinary all year. Jim Morrissey in his prime would be an upgrade. We might see some flashes from Urlacher before he fades away, but he’s unlikely to have a good full season again. Charles Tillman has one or both shoulders messed up. He’ll probably be fine after likely off-season surgery, but for the rest of this season, he’s limited. His signature tackle/strip turnovers are pretty well out of the question at this point. The truly scary situation is Tommie Harris. This is his 3^rd straight year plagued by leg problems and his contribution has been dismal. He used to be the disruptive key to this defense. He just received a ton of money from the Bears and may have nothing to give in return. If he’s done, then, despite having spent a R1, R2, and 2 R3s over the last 5 drafts, we may still be completely inadequate at DT. This defense requires interior penetration. Dusty is utterly worthless in that regard. Tommie hasn’t been much better. Tank is long gone. Harrison might be something, but is still pretty unknown. Everyone else is ok depth at best. Imagine having to burn another to p pick on DT after the last 4 plus the big-bucks payout to retain Tommie.

Roster

Odd roster choices abound.

The Bears promoted DE Baldwin from the PS, giving them an unheard of 10 Dlmen on the active roster. To make room, they released recently acquired veteran starting FS Holt – from a position of dire need – without testing him out at all.

They also added another WR to the PS, meaning 4 of the 8 PS slots are WRs. The roster+PS has 9 receivers now.

While they do have room for all those linemen and receivers, they didn’t have room for WR Mark Bradley, who was let go for nothing a month or so back. The Chiefs picked him up and, after an unremarkable first game there, he’s racking up numbers at a pace that would come out to over 80 catches and just under 1000 yards over a 16 game season. Scroll back to previous columns for reminders of how obvious his ability was.

( ) contain contract years left at the end of the season. +1 shows RFA and +2 ERFA status after their current contract expires. PUP is the Physically Unable to Perform list, IR for Injured Reserve, and INJ is used for a player hampered by injury, but not on the preceding lists. Bold denotes star players, Underline shows a solid starter, Normal for substandard starters to decent=2 0backups, and Italics for poor/raw/ST only players.

Grades are how the unit has performed, relative to the rest of the NFL, irrespective of health, expectation, experience, etc. Parentheses contain my preseason prediction.

OL

St. Clair(FA), Beekman(2), Kreutz(2), Garza(3), Tait(1)

Williams(4), Buenning(1), Metcalf(3), Miller(FA-INJ)

Reed(PS), Balogh(PS)

QB

Orton(1-INJ), Grossman(FA), Hanie(2+1)

WR

Lloyd(FA), Booker(1-INJ)

Hester(5), Davis(2)

Bennett(3)

Rideau(PS), Hass(PS), Broussard(PS), Burgess(PS)

TE

Clark(2), Olsen(3), Davis(3)

Mines(PS)

HB

Forte(3), Jones(FA) , Peterson(1), Wolfe(2)

FB

McKie(3)

Davis(PS)

DL

Ogunleye(1), Harris(4-INJ), Dvoracek(1), Brown(3)

Idonije(1), Harrison(3), Adams(2), Toeaina(1), Anderson(1), Baldwin(?)

LB

Roach(ERFA?), Urlacher(3), Briggs(5)

Williams(1), Hillenmeyer(2-INJ), McClover(FA-INJ), LaRocque(3)

S

Payne(2), Brown(FA)

Steltz(3), DManning(1)

McGowan(FA-IR)

CB
Tillman(5-INJ), Graham(2), Vasher(4), McBride(2), Hamilton(ERFA)

Bowman(3?-IR)

LS

Mannelly(2)

K

Gould(5)

P

Maynard(2)

KR

Manning

PR

 

2009 Shopping List

Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed in.....Comment

1)………..FS....…..1-3…………….Brown is a 30+ FA with a long injury history, Manning has only 1 yr left, and they prefer him at nickel back. The Payne experiment demonstrates just how desperate they are.

2)………..DE.…….1-4……………Ogun, Idonije, and Anderson all expire after 09. Ogunleye and Anderson have been invisible, they want Idonije to do ST and rotational DT. Ogunleye 31.

3)………..OT?….…1-3..………….Williams has a potentially serious injury concern, St Clair is a FA, Tait aging and a FA the year after.

4)……….HB?…….2-5…………….None of the backups has contributed anything with the ball. Forte getting overworked.

5)………..QB?……2-6………… .Could go real prospect, vet backup, or mid-round placeholder, but vet backup looks like the right call right now.

6)……….WR?……1-4……………. Decent depth, but very lacking in top-end talent

7)………..G?……...2-3…….……...Decent depth now, but very lacking in top-end talent

8)………..LB?.…...5-7……………..2 FAs. But Roach, McClover, and even Wilson are good bets to return
 

The needs just keep on growing. In spite of being a .500 team, there’re almost no young building blocks, almost no difference-makers, and almost no position groups that are off-limits.
 

Players that fit the Bears’ needs, scheme, and draft slots

HB

Rashad Jennings, 6’1 235 4.55 , Liberty

Jeremiah Johnson, 5’10 205 4.55, Oregon

Doesn’t have big upside – probably just a complementary back, but that’s all we need. Injury issues.

Marlon Lucky, 6’0 210 4.50, Nebraska

Branden Ore, 5’11 200 4.50, West Liberty State

Donald Brown, 5’11 215 4.50 , Connecticut(Jr)
 

HB is usually more impacted by Jrs than any other position, but it’s hard to predict which come out just yet.

3-2) Bears 34, Detroit 7

The Bears treat an embarrassing Lions team the same way the rest of the NFL does.

3-3) Atlanta 22, Bears 20

Bears make a dramatic comeback, then give it away. Now 1-3 in close games.

4-3) Bears 48, Minn 41

Bears use (what else?) special teams and turnovers to prevail in a wild affair.

 

The Bears won a critical game in Week 7 and are now in a good position to contend for either the division title or a wildcard. Only DB health appears to stand in their way.

Orton’s play against Detroit didn’t move me much, given how pathetic they’ve been. But even after discarding that one, he’s been performing really well lately. The picture has shifted from an early QB being a necessity, to a veteran backup being the more likely pickup.
 

Harris flashed on a couple plays against Minn, but mostly remains a disappointment. Ogunleye has also been poor at providing pressure.
 

Forte’s numbers may be way down (to all the FFers out there), but he can still play. The complete lack of contribution from any of the three backups is a concern.
 

Olsen has been utilized much more effectively as a receiver.
 

The Oline has held up better than they look on paper.
 

While still solid, Urlacher and Brown both haven’t shown any of the playmaking that used to be their hallmark.
 

The secondary is absolutely battered. All 6 corners were hurt in the game and/or on the injury list before the game. Tillman’s is probably chronic and will hamper him all season. Vasher’s has been more serious than the team let on (and it was unclear whether he was really himself after last season’s groin tear, even before the wrist problem). Bowman is done for the year. The bye week comes at a desperately needed time. Angelo found a surprisingly good S available (Terrence Holt, a full-time starter for the last 2 yrs), but dressing enough CBs will still be a problem. Ty Law may join eventually, if no one else grabs him first.

 

After exploding out of the box, in the first couple games, the rushing offense has been stuck in neutral.
 

It's partly the run blocking, but a major part of it is also OC Ron Turner doing a great job of taking what is there.

Opening the season with a rookie R2 HB, teams didn't respect Forte that much. Turner ran it down their throats. When teams saw Forte's huge numbers and Orton's puny ones, they shifted their gameplans to stop the run. Turner turned Orton loose and he responded. At some point, you have to think teams will go start playing pass or balanced, at which point the running effectiveness should come up and the pass effectiveness come down a bit.

Turner has always been excellent at adapting to the tools he has and what the defense gives. In 2005, when he had a terrible rookie QB, he relied heavily on Thomas Jones and rode him and an ultraconservative gameplan into the playoffs.
In 2006, when defenses continued to expect nothing but run, he surprised them by letting Rex throw, and he tore them up with play action and Berrian double moves deep for a few games. Once teams started respecting the pass, Rex fizzled, but that freed up the running game to get back on track, and Jones (along with special teams and defense) carried them the rest of the way.
 

(However, it’s also worth noting that Orton has been making much tougher throws than Grossman did in 2006. As I mentioned at the time, to mostly willfully deaf ears, Rex was racking up gaudy stats by hitting receivers that were wide, wide, all by themselves, wide open – the majority of them passes that every QB in the league could have made. Since Kyle has been making more difficult throws for his numbers, I think his likely comedown when defenses adjust will probably be far milder than Rex’s. Plus, Orton is mentally tougher and can handle the ‘less easy’ pickings better.)

 

( ) contain contract years left at the end of the season. +1 shows RFA and +2 ERFA status after their current contract expires. PUP is the Physically Unable to Perform list, IR for Injured Reserve, and INJ is used for a player hampered by injury, but not on the preceding lists. Bold denotes star players, Underline shows a solid starter, Normal for substandard starters to decent backups, and Italics for poor/raw/ST only players.
 

Grades are how the unit has performed, relative to the rest of the NFL, irrespective of health, expectation, experience, etc. Parentheses contain my preseason prediction.
 

OL

St. Clair(FA), Beekman(2), Kreutz(2), Garza(3), Tait(1)

Williams(4-INJ), Buenning(1), Metcalf(3-SUSP), Miller(FA)

Reed(PS), Balogh(PS)
 

Smaller finesse line has been above average at pass-blocking, below average at run-blocking.

(D+) C
 

QB

Orton(1), Grossman(FA), Hanie(2+1)
 

Orton has answered the bell with considerably better accuracy than he’s ever shown before.

(D+) B+
 

WR

Lloyd(FA-INJ), Booker(1)

Hester(5-INJ), Davis(2)

Bennett(3)

Rideau(PS), Hass(PS), Broussard(PS)
 

Still a weak spot, but could be worse.

(D-) D+
 

TE

Clark(2), Olsen(3), Davis(3)

Mines(PS)
 

Bears are really effective in the 2TE set this year.

(A-) A
 

HB

Forte(3), Jones(FA) , Peterson(1), Wolfe(2)
 

Forte can play, but don’t ask about the rest.

(C+) B
 

FB

McKie(3)

Davis(PS)
 

Might get less important with more double TE.

(C-) C

DL

Ogunleye(1), Harris(4-INJ), Dvoracek(1), Brown(3)

Idonije(1), Harrison(3), Adams(2), Toeaina(1), Anderson(1)

Baldwin(PS)
 

Trademark disruption just isn’t there.

(B) C+
 

LB

Hillenmeyer(2-INJ), Urlacher(3), Briggs(5)

Williams(1), Roach(ERFA?-INJ), McClover(FA), LaRocque(3)
 

Briggs makes some big hits, but I still say almost every big run centers on him overcommitting and leaving his side exposed. Urlacher has been just another guy most of the time.

(B) C
 

S

Payne(2), Brown(FA)

Steltz(3), DManning(1-INJ)

Holt(?)

McGowan(FA-IR)
 

Not much speed out there, which partly explains why reports are that they play too deep and soft. Big breakdowns are down, at least.

(D+) C
 

CB
Tillman(5-INJ), Vasher(4-INJ), Graham(2-INJ), McBride(2-INJ), Hamilton(ERFA)

Bowman(3?-IR)

Not bad, considering their health. Tillman and Vasher may remain hampered all season, though, which would be awfully tough to overcome.
 

(B) C

 
LS

Mannelly(2)

K

Gould(5)

P

Maynard(2)

KR

Hester-INJ, Manning-INJ, Davis

PR

Hester-INJ, Vasher-INJ, Bennett
 

Injuries and WR time have made Hester largely ineffective. Bears actually had a few breakdowns (blocked FG and painful kickoff issues in the Atlanta game). Still a net plus, but not like it has been.

(A++) B+
 

 

Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed in.....Comment

1)………..OT..….…1-3.………….Williams has a potentially serious injury concern, St Clair is a FA, Tait aging and a FA the year after.

2)………..DE.…….1-4……………Ogun, Idonije, and Anderson all expire after 09. Ogunleye and Anderson have been invisible, they want Idonije to do ST and rotational DT. Ogunleye 31.

3)………..FS?...…..1-4…………….Brown is a 30+ FA with a long injury history, Manning has only 1 yr left, and they prefer him at nickel back. Holt could solve this, though.

4)……….HB?…….2-4…………….None of the backups has contributed anything with the ball. Forte getting overworked.

5)………..QB?……2-5…………….Could go real prospect, vet backup, or mid-round placeholder, but vet backup looks like the right call right now. Just a rancid year for QBs.

6)……….WR?……1-4……………. Decent depth, but very lacking in top-end talent

7)………..G?……...2-3…….……...Decent depth now, but very lacking in top-end talent

8)………..LB?.…...5-7……………..2 FAs. But Roach, McClover, and even Wilson are good bets to return

 
 

Players that fit the Bears’s needs, scheme, and draft slots
 

Rashad Johnson, 6’0 185 4.50, Alabama

Derek Pegues, 5’10 190 4.45, Miss St

    Small, fast transfer from CB
 

Not a lot of pure FSs, although if Angelo insists on continuing to go the smart + slow route, that would present more options.
 

Matt Shaughnessy, 6’6 253 4.75, Wisc

    Some injury concern. Has frame to get bigger.

Cody Brown, 6’2 250 4.70, Connecticut

    Needs weight, even in Lovie’s system.

Will Davis, 6’3 268 4.75, Illinois

Greg Hardy, 6’4 265 4.75, Ole Miss(Jr)