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5/8/08
The Dirty Dozen
1-14) LT Chris Williams, 6060 315 5.17, Vanderbilt
Excellent overall physique and measurables. Two years as starting LT
after 1 at LG. Intelligent and team captain. Like Tait, a better pass
blocker than run.
2-44) HB Matt Forte, 6013 217 4.46, Tulane
Compares as a significantly better version of Anthony Thomas. Won’t wow
you with amazing athleticism/speed/escapability, but very solid. Tall,
somewhat upright, solid build, powerful runner. Good hands, blocking,
effort, and character. Can be an immediate everydown starter.
3-70) FL Earl Bennett, 5114 209 4.48, Vanderbilt
Solid character, started 2.5/3 yrs. Ordinary size and speed, good hands
and production. Projects to be Booker’s apprentice for a couple years
before taking over.
3-90) DT Marcus Harrison, 6026 317 5.06, Arkansas
Very talented, but 2 knee injuries and character problems. Not clear if
they envision using him more at UT, NT or both. Could be Tank’s
replacement in more ways than one.
4-120) SS Craig Steltz, 6013 213 4.63*, LSU
Smart, intense, offbeat individual. Only started 1 yr, although still
logged a lot of picks as nickel back. A bit of a tweener – has the ball
skills of a FS, but not the necessary speed, isn’t as physical as you’d
expect from a player of his size. Will probably be in the mix at a very
unsettled SS position.
5-142) DB Zachary Bowman, 6001 197 4.39, Nebraska
Has great size/speed ratio and comes from a major program. Not very
experienced (9 starts), as he started out in a junior college and was
hurt a lot after transferring (1 for each knee). A significant project
and risk. Could be moved from corner to FS. Would be nice if they
could find an excuse to stash him on IR for a year.
5-158) TE Kellen Davis, 6064 262 4.60, Michigan State
Great physical specimen, but comes with a rep for being soft and lazy.
Should immediately play a little as a short yardage blocking TE. Has
the upside to be a lot more, if he ever gets the desire.
7-208) DE Earvin Baldwin, 6’1** 270** 4.80**, Michigan State
Reasonably productive, but undersized and on pretty much nobody’s radar.
7-222) G Chester Adams, 6’4** 325** 5.30**, Georgia
Played RT and G. Technique and desire need improvement, but not out of
the question to make a roster someday.
7-243) LB Joey Larocque, 6’2** 225** 4.80**, Oregon State
Really, really not on anyone’s radar. Purely a future special teams
candidate.
7-247) G/RT Kirk Barton, 6043 310 5.01*, OSU
RT in college. Muscular, fast, experienced, dedicated, and a team
captain. Has some injury problems, particularly his knee, which was
hurt a year or two back and then required another surgery late in the 07
season. Only health concerns could have caused him to slide so far, and
he could be a real steal if he can put them behind him.
7-248) WR Marcus Monk, 6042 222 4.63, Arkansas
Almost came out after jr year, lost most of his sr year to a knee
injury. Much faster 40 (4.42) at Pro Day, which probably got him
drafted, but doesn’t have great game speed. Intelligent, good hands,
long arms. Questionable effort/heart. Probably projects best to FL and
will compete for the 5th/6th WR spot, but more likely to start on IR or
the PS.
UDFAs – contribution from here is pretty rare (from 07 only Mines and
Fassitt remain – they are both on the PS with no talk of them being in
the mix for a roster spot this year), particularly in a year with 5 7th
rounders. This year’s crop is particularly underwhelming. However, one
will likely make the roster as the 3rd QB, unless another team’s cut
comes in.
QB Caleb Hanie (6’2** 235** - , Colorado State) – Unimpressive stats,
but very strong arm with a weak supporting cast as a possible excuse.
QB Nick Hill (6’3** 215** - , Southern IL) – Impressive stats, but
mechanics need some work.
CB Trey Brown (5’8** 186** 4.65**, UCLA) – Skilled, but short and slow.
Father played pro ball.
CB Leslie Majors (5095* 168* 4.54*, Indiana) – Passable measurables.
DE Joe Clermond (6022* 253* 4.96*, Pittsburgh) – Double-digit sacks at
Pitt, but small and slow.
K Shane Longest (5100 177 -, St Xavier) – Could stick on PS if he looks
good and Gould’s new contract gets sticky.
DT David Faaeteete (Oregon), WR Curtis Hamilton (Western Kentucky), DE
Nick Osborn (San Diego State)
* Not Combine data. NFL.com Pro Day info.
** Neither Combine nor NFL.com Pro Day data.
Draft Analysis
Things played out amazingly well for the Bears in R1 – not unlike 2004,
when it was feared all the elite DTs would be gone, but the Bears got
their pick and came home with Tommie Harris (also at 14). When faced
with a lot of choices, the Bears made the smart one and took the guy
who’s sure to play LT. There was a rumor right before the draft that
Williams had medical issues with his back/spine – it’s believed this was
a deliberate fabrication by an unknown team to try to scare other teams
away. You can see how much teams value OT by looking at what came
after:
15 Albert, a good athlete teams hope can learn LT
17 Cherilus, RT
19 Otah, a RT/G
21 A laughable reach for Sam Baker. Drafting a player moving to G in R1
is terrible value. Thinking he’ll be a quality T is truly wishful.
26 Another hilarious reach, for Duane Brown. He had nice Combine times
and all, but how many good 6’4 OTs are there in the league these days?
Again, he could be a very good G, but you don’t take Gs (particularly
position changers) in R1.
We made out like bandits here, getting a LT, possibly the best LT in the
draft, and not really having to pay all that much, by starting LT
standards.
Forte got selected a tiny bit early, but he was really the only guy
left, outside of maybe Choice in R3, who fit what we needed. Days
before the draft, I predicted this pick correctly, because it was such
an obvious fit. I don’t know if he’ll start Game 1, but I’ll be
surprised if he doesn’t lead the team in carries for 08.
At this point I was expecting G, QB, DT and hoping for G or FS (knowing
full well I wasn’t getting it). The pick surprised me – after bringing
in Booker and Lloyd, and extending Davis, I thought the team was pretty
well done with WR. That’s not necessarily a complaint, as R3 is a great
spot to find future starting WRs. I even had him rated a shade higher
(late 2), and it’s not often Angelo gets players later than I have
them. Going to be a big crowd and heavy competition at the bottom end
of the position.
Next was a predictable selection. I had DT pegged for R4-7 in ‘my
draft’, but figured Angelo would hit it R2-4.
Two short trades down came next - for an extra 7th and a R6-R5 pick swap
of 17 places.
The only surprise on the next selection was that it came a little early
– yes, the annual Louisiana SS. (In the 7 drafts he’s had here, Jerry’s
taken a SS in R4-6 5 times, with 4 from Louisiana . Linebacker is the
position you ought to make a practice of taking one in 4-6 almost every
year, not SS, but I digress.) He’s not an awful prospect or anything
and the team is a mess at S, but the overkill on SSs is simply flat-out
pathological. Five in seven years. Last year, it was such a ‘need’
that after drafting one, we were then forced to trade one away (Harris),
because we had more bodies at the position that we could carry. As of
now, we have 4 SSs on the roster.
Surprising luxury pick on Bowman. 4 of the 5 positions are pretty much
locks, and replacing Ricky Manning doesn’t seem to rank as high
priority.
Strong TE was a necessity.
It was a funny draft in that the first 3 picks were all very safe picks,
while 3 of the next 4 were very risky. Similarly, while the Bears pay
lip service to character – in their actual draft, the top 3 picks were
high character, but most of the next 4 had some significant flaws.
Another theme was 4 great athletes who were hindered by serious knee
injuries.
Contrary to my usual opinion, Jerry did an ok job of taking the right
kind of player with the late picks. Barton and Monk have a lot of
potential for late selections, Adams and Baldwin have slight upsides,
Larocque is the only one I really can’t buy.
Most of the selections were fine values in and of themselves – no big
reaches like Wolfe or Okwo, for example. The biggest flaw in the draft
is the things that didn’t get addressed. QB I don’t mind so much –
early or nothing significant is what I recommended and it’s what they
did (although Ainge and Woodson both fell to the points I would have
been happy to bite on them, after all). FS, on the other hand, got
pretty much ignored, as usual. Bowman could be moved, but he’s an
injury question mark to begin with and would need time to convert, so
that’s no real help. They might claim Steltz can play both sides, but
they’re full of crap if they think a 4.63 guy is a good bet to play well
at FS. The real biggie, though is G. The roster is just full of
nothing there. The top guy, Garza, is a marginal starter. St Clair is
their only T backup. Metcalf is regressing, if anything. Beekman
couldn’t get on the field last year (which means he’s either terrible or
the team made a bad decision in not evaluating/seasoning him at the end
of 2007). It’s a giant mess. This was listed as one of my pre-draft
fears – that OL would get its usual shortchanging.
Overall Grade: B
(Which is probably the highest I’ve ever given. Which is probably the
kiss of death…)
Misc
After signing his tender offer, Rashied Davis and the Bears agreed to a
3 yr deal instead.
News has finally leaked out that Metcalf had a broken hand when he was
struggling, and ultimately benched, last season.
The whispers about Benson’s leg and commitment to rehab swelled to a
roar shortly before the draft. It’s entirely possible he’ll be on IR or
given an injury settlement.
He’s also currently enmeshed in an arrest incident that isn’t likely to
help his cause any.
Roster
( ) contain contract years left. +1 shows RFA and +2 ERFA status after
their current contract expires. PUP is the Physically Unable to Perform
list, and INJ is used for a player who ended the season with a
significant injury, had/will have off-season surgery, or is in some way
a health question mark. Bold denotes star players,
Underline shows a solid starter, Normal for substandard starters to
decent backups, and Italics for poor/raw/ST only players.
OL Williams<R1>, Metcalf(4), Kreutz(3), Garza(4), Tait(2)
St. Clair(1), Oakley(RFA?), Beekman(3), Barton<R7>, Adams<R7> Reed(PS), Jones(PS), Gibbons(PS)
Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed
in.....Comment
1)……….OT………1-2……………Only 2 bodies and 1 starter.
2)………..G...……..2-5…………….No one that deserves to start. 1 is a
necessity, 2 would be ideal.
3)………..FS?...…..1-4…………….Really bad news, but they never really seem to
recognize it
4)……….HB...……1-4……………. Is JA willing to admit we don’t have a HB, even
after spending a top 5 on Benson and R3 on Wolfe? Is Benson’s leg/ankle
more serious than outsiders knew?
5)……….WR.…….1-4…………….Berrian gone, Bradley has been a non-factor, and
Hester still doesn’t know the formations. Also, no one too promising
behind Booker on the other side.
6)……….QB……..2-7…………….Bears will deliberately be in the unenviable
position of carrying 3 young, developing, unproven QBs at once
7)……….DT……...4-7…………….Toeaina and Idonije are the only backups to
Tommie. Bear obsession with DL could push this much higher than it ought
to be.
8)……….TE………4-7…………….Gilmore gone and Mines isn’t a good complement to
the other 2
2009 Shopping List
Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed
in.....Comment
1)………..QB?…….1-3…………….Rex and Kyle aren’t very promising.
2)………..G………2-5……………..No one that deserves to start. 1 is a necessity, 2
would be ideal.
3)………..RT?.…...1-3…………….Tait’s aging and St Clair is a FA.
4)………..FS?...…..1-4…………….Brown and Manning are big question marks.
5)……….WR?…….1-4…………….Might not have a starter-quality SE in the bunch.
4/24/08
Misc
Lovie has made the god-awful ignorant suggestion that they intend to use
Hester less on kick returns while playing him more at WR. First off,
teams kick away from him so much (which still results in great field
position) that he doesn’t make that many returns anyway. Second of all,
you want to take one of the most impactful players in the game away from
what he does best to have him do something he doesn’t do as well?
Lovie also said the team is wanting Idonije to bulk up and be a pure DT.
Urlacher is bitching and moaning about needing a new deal – despite
having 4 years left on the current one.
Even after coming back for a long-term deal, Briggs is still pouting and
skipping minicamp, too. Robbie Gould joins them in not joining their
teammates.
Positions are where I feel they fit best as a pro. () are other
possibilities.
[RT] indicates tackles only suitable for the right side
I used [FL], [SE], [SL] to help sort all the different WRs. Flanker
denotes a larger, slow, possession receiver, SE a taller, fast,
explosive type, and slot for the little (mostly fast, but not all, once
you reach the late rounds) guys. That’s not at all to suggest that
they’re limited to that position, or even that that’s their likely
position - it’s merely a way to help identify different physical types
out of a large group. I could have called them type A, B, and C, but
this is easier to remember.
h-Bs are tweeners somewhere inbetween WR/TE. They have ball skills, and
you throw to them, but the lack the speed and size to be an every down
player at either spot.
[SS] denotes safeties that are either big and big hitters, or too slow
to play FS well, or both. Sometimes you’ll find a slow guy at FS out of
necessity, but it rarely works well. Mike Brown is the only exception I
can think of, and (post-injuries) he may have slowed down too much to do
it anymore.
At LB, S/M/W are 4-3 Strong/Middle/Weak slots, O/I are 3-4
Inside/Outside positions.
On DL, E suggests a player suited to 3-4 DE.
* shows wildcard players whose slot/value is especially hard to
forecast, due to injury concerns, position uncertainty, character
issues, high measurable but minimal experience, etc.
+s indicate players that I like better than other people seem to and
could go lower.
-s indicate players that I like less than other people, and are likely
to go higher than I rate them.
My Bears Anxiety Closet
Last column I talked about where I thought good values could be had.
This time around, I’m sharing what I suspect the team will do.
I know they absolutely will draft some OL – even they can’t ignore it
this time. But I do fear they won’t go after it hard enough.
Also at S – I’ve been preaching help there for 2 years now and I have
the feeling they’re going to neglect it again. I see them using a 4-7
at best and counting on guys like Brown, Payne, and Manning – who do
have some chance at doing the job, but it’s just not high enough to
stand pat again.
At HB and QB, my philosophy this year would be “go big or go home”. If
you get a good value on one early, maybe pull the trigger, but if you
can’t get a great one, push it back to next year’s list. I have a
feeling they’re going to address both now by getting mediocre guys, then
realize in 1-2 years that they still need an upgrade there and have to
draft them again.
DL and LB ought to be almost totally written out of draft plans – maybe
a late DL backup at most. But I won’t be shocked to see them go after
one higher.
A 3rd TE late is likely. Probably one early WR will happen, too.
Roster
( ) contain contract years left. +1 shows RFA and +2 ERFA status after
their current contract expires. PUP is the Physically Unable to Perform
list, and INJ is used for a player who ended the season with a
significant injury, had/will have off-season surgery, or is in some way
a health question mark. Bold denotes star players, Underline shows a
solid starter, Normal for substandard starters to decent backups, and
Italics for poor/raw/ST only players.
OL Tait(2), Metcalf(4), Kreutz(3), Garza(4), St. Clair(1)
Oakley(RFA?), Beekman(3) Reed(PS), Jones(PS), Gibbons(PS)
LS (1) Mannelly(3)
K (1) Gould(1)
P (1) Maynard(3)
KR Hester, Davis
PR Hester
2008 Shopping List
We did get a number of late compensatories – 3 at the tail of R7. That
leaves us with:
14, 44, 70, 90, 110, 142, 175, 222, 243, 247, 248
Rank.....Position.....Rounds it could be successfully addressed
in.....Comment
1)……….OT………1-2……………Only 2 bodies and 1 starter.
2)………..G...……..2-5…………….No one that deserves to start. 1 is a
necessity, 2 would be ideal.
3)………..FS?...…..1-4…………….Really bad news, but they never really seem to
recognize it
4)……….HB...……1-4……………. Is JA willing to admit we don’t have a HB, even
after spending a top 5 on Benson and R3 on Wolfe? Is Benson’s leg/ankle
more serious than outsiders knew?
5)……….WR.…….1-4…………….Berrian gone, Bradley has been a non-factor, and
Hester still doesn’t know the formations. Also, no one too promising
behind Booker on the other side.
6)……….QB……..2-7…………….Bears will deliberately be in the unenviable
position of carrying 3 young, developing, unproven QBs at once
7)……….DT……...4-7…………….Toeaina and Idonije are the only backups to
Tommie. Bear obsession with DL could push this much higher than it ought
to be.
8)……….TE………4-7…………….Gilmore gone and Mines isn’t a good complement to
the other 2
Participatory Mock 2
Trade 14 for 20 + 83
20) OT Cherilus
T in R1 is just unavoidable for us. There's no alternative.
44) S Smith
Seemed like a nice steal at the time. After his poor workout and how
ridiculously far some of the other safeties went, I'd really like to
take it back.
70) QB Woodson
Wasn't in my plans, but also couldn't pass here with the killer tandem
of Rex and Orton.
83) G Schuening
This is back to plan. [Another GM] spoils my attempt to steal Zuttah
twice in a row.
90) FS Quintin Demps
All the HBs and WRs got plundered right after 70. Smith's bad time
leaves me feeling like I still don't have a FS.
110) G Kirk Barton
Major need.
142) WR Marcus Smith
All the badly undervalued players on the board at positions I can't use
(DL, LB) is killing me in these middle rounds.
175) CB Michael Grant
2nd time I've taken him here, even though I'm full up on DBs. I'm just
not buying that he's a 6 or worse.
222) HB Jalen Parmele
2nd time I've done this, too. How can no one value him any higher? Ah,
well - last year I was getting guys like Gerald Alexander and Mario
Henderson in the 7th, too.
243) TE Darryl Strong
3rd TE needed. Has some upside with good physical potential
247) DT Barry Booker
Competes with Toeaina for a 9th DL or PS spot behind Tommie
248) LB Steve Octavien
PS and possible future ST replenishment
Late Round Fun
The late rounds are where you should be looking for:
a) inexplicable sliders
b) role players who can contribute (special teams, FB, 3rd TE, etc)
c) players with high ceilings, that could surprise, in spite of serious
negatives like injury, character, inexperience, etc
As I’ve complained before, Angelo rarely follows the script and goes
after entirely the wrong sort of late-round players. This year, we’ve
got an abundance of late-round picks and the bottom of our roster is
really pretty solid. So here’s some ideas for Sunday night fliers.
Morelli and Keller
If we don’t get QB early, we’ll need a body here. They’ve got their
knocks, but the physical tools (size, rocket arms) are there.
Haynos and Strong
Gilmore is gone, so there’s an opening for 3rd blocking TE.
Blake
Once an elite prospect, he’s a big question mark now. Missed time as a
senior (rumored to be due to bipolar disorder), weight has fluctuated
dramatically since, and is not well-conditioned right now. Even though
we’re loaded at DE, we could maybe get him on PUP/IR for a year.
Arnold
Tough guy at G has had his own injury problems
Brown
Decent S prospect will miss most/all of 08 with a ruptured Achilles.
Boatman
Plenty of starting LTs in the league have equal or lesser physical
tools. Put him on the practice squad and see if you can develop him.
Carr and Cary Williams
Small-school CBs with coveted size/speed combos. They’ll keep on the PS
while they adjust.
Redd
Small-school DE with great measurables.
Calucrick, Peterson, Lokey
We have plenty of bodies at FB, but since our offense never gives them
any touches, we may as well just get a big physical powerhouse.
Ikegwuonu
Rumored to have threatened to sit out and re-enter the draft if not
taken in the first 3 rounds. With 3 7ths, we could gamble, though.
Losing a year off his career hurts him about as much as the salary
difference between a R3 and R7 rookie contract. Probably more,
actually, if he’s as good as he thinks he is.
Mailbag
Interesting column, as always. Does seem like we may be on a cusp where
the LTs we’re presumably targeting could all be gone by 14. Curious
though how your hypothetical draft yielded that result. Seems to me
there are 7 sure picks before us – 2 Longs, Gholston, Ellis, Dorsey,
Ryan and McFadden. Most mocks also have Clady going in the top 10 and at
least before us. Most also, however, have Rivers and 2 corners going
before us, which, if accurate, means one of Williams, Otah or Mendenhall
would be available at 14. Assume we’d want a tackle, even though it’s
probably a year before any of them would be materially better than St
Clair. I think Mendenhall would help quite a lot and right away, but
there also would be contributors at HB in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, and
Angelo won’t want to concede a 1st round HB bust, i.e., Benson, and even
worse, from his perspective, risk another. Tackle will be the safe pick
and likely do little if anything to help in 2008. The interesting thing
will be if your forecast comes true, and they’re all gone at 14. Hate to
think we’d reach for Cherilus. On the subject of BC tackles, you should
at some point comment on how Colombo was thrown on the scrap heap only
to emerge as an RT on one of the league’s better offensive lines.
Here’s the way that particular draft shook out (about 4-6 weeks
ago):
1.Miami Dolphins-Chris Long, DE, Virginia
2.St. Louis Rams-Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
3.Carolina Panthers (from Atlanta)-Jake Long, OT, Michigan
4.Oakland Raiders-Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio St.
5.Kansas City Chiefs-Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
6.New York Jets-Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
7.New England Patriots (from San Francisco)-Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
8.Baltimore Ravens-Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
9.Cincinnati Bengals-Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
10.New Orleans Saints-Keith Rivers, LB, USC
11.Buffalo Bills-Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
12.Denver Broncos-Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
13.Atlanta Falcons (from Carolina Panthers)-Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
And here’s the next (0-2 weeks old):
01. Miami - OT: Jake Long - Michigan
02. St Louis - DE: Chris Long - Virginia
03. Atlanta - QB: Matt Ryan - Boston College
04. Oakland - DT: Glenn Dorsey - LSU
05. Kansas City - DT: Sedrick Ellis - USC
06. New York Jets - DE: Vernon Gholston - Ohio State
07. New England (San Francisco) - RB: Darren McFadden - Arkansas
08. Baltimore - CB: Leodis McKelvin - Troy
09. Cincinnati - LB: Keith Rivers - USC
10. New Orleans - CB: Aqib Talib - Kansas
11. Buffalo - DE: Derrick Harvey - Florida
12. Denver - OT: Ryan Clady - Boise State
13. Carolina - OT: Chris Williams - Vanderbilt
I’m really expecting Williams and probably Mendenhall to be gone.
Otah should be there, but I really don’t like him all that much.
I’ve been speculating the same thing about HBs, but the Bears have
had dinners, interviews, and private workouts with almost all of the
elite backs – Mendenhall, Forte, McFadden, Jones, and 1-2 more, I think.
If they aren’t seriously considering it, they’re working really hard to
give that impression (and that kind of effort at misdirection hasn’t
been their previous MO).
It’s true HB would yield much faster results than T, but to me
that’s a relatively meaningless point, as I would pretty much write off
2008 as a rebuilding year. Even if they do crack .500, there’s no
genuine contention in the cards. To the Bears, maybe not, though. If
they’re really, really determined to do whatever they can to give Rex
the best chance they can to succeed – and historically, they’ve always
made that their #1 priority, ranking it even higher than sending their
best players out on the field to compete in the playoffs and challenge
for a Super Bowl – then they could very well conclude that HB will help
him most now in his last, last, we really mean it this time, final
chance.
Cherilus is a bit of a reach at 14, but not nearly as much as people
seem to think, IMO. This is a guy who ran 5.21 at Combine and 5.05 at
Pro Day (that’s about .3 better than Otah and same/better than Clady,
Williams, and Albert), is a 4 yr starter at a major program known for
offensive line, a team captain, and has enormous arms and hands.
All in all, I think we’ll probably see OT and HB in the first two
picks, probably in that order.
As for Colombo, his Chicago story is a mixed bag.
Selecting OT in 2002 was an obvious decision, after Brockermeyer’s
injury.
Choosing Colombo himself was an excellent call, as most experts (present
company included) had Mike Peterson rated higher.
The injury was unavoidable bad luck.
Doing nothing about OT in 2003, when it was excruciatingly obvious
Colombo would contribute little to nothing that year, if ever again, was
a stupefyingly bad move (even more so with Big Cat’s retirement leaving
no one on the other side, either).
Keeping Colombo around for a lengthy rehab was a fine decision, since he
was able to eventually recover.
Not realizing that he was recovered and capable of immediately stepping
in and playing well right at the time when they gave up and cut him was
bad evaluation.
4/7/08
More FA
Late season fill-in DT Jimmy Kennedy was signed elsewhere. No loss, and
depending on the contract, he might even qualify for a comp next year.
Berrian did indeed sign elsewhere. His contract was too large to match,
but his loss does really, really hurt an already miserable offense.
Briggs did indeed return. Unless Urlacher retires very soon, that’s a
big waste of money that could have been better spent elsewhere. And it
will also cost us a 2009 R3 compensatory pick we would have gotten for
losing him.
In a shocking development related to Briggs, the 49ers were found guilty
of tampering by contacting Briggs about contracts last year. Goodell
penalized them a draft pick, but also made them swap 3rd rounders this
year with us. That nets us 5 slots earlier, in an area of the draft
where it could end up mattering some.
The Bears actually got something by dangling Griese – a 2009 R6 pick.
Marty Booker will be returning to take over Moose’s job. He’s maybe a
slight improvement, but also on the wrong side of 30, and just a stopgap
solution.
Ayanbadejo left when the Bears pulled their offer, following Briggs’s
signing.
Brandon Lloyd was brought in to reunite with college coach Ron Turner.
He’s a formerly high paid player, who didn’t pan out and developed a rep
for a bad attitude. For a 1yr veteran minimum contract with no bonus,
the Bears are hoping his old coach knows how to handle him. It’s a fine
no-risk proposition, but our WR unit is still pretty unimpressive.
Antonio Garay remains unsigned, with no talks at this time.
Draft Boards
Here’s v1. These are with Combine performances included, but in almost
all cases, not with Pro Day performances considered yet. I’m late
getting these out this year, so there’ll probably be just 1 more/final
version before the Draft, with Pro Day numbers, last minute rumors and
developments, and other misc updates and adjustments.
Positions are where I feel they fit best as a pro. () are other
possibilities.
[RT] indicates tackles only suitable for the right side
I used [FL], [SE], [SL] to help sort all the different WRs. Flanker
denotes a larger, slow, possession receiver, SE a taller, fast,
explosive type, and slot for the little (mostly fast, but not all, once
you reach the late rounds) guys. That’s not at all to suggest that
they’re limited to that position, or even that that’s their likely
position - it’s merely a way to help identify different physical types
out of a large group. I could have called them type A, B, and C, but
this is easier to remember.
h-Bs are tweeners somewhere in between WR/TE. They have ball skills,
and you throw to them, but the lack the speed and size to be an every
down player at either spot.
[SS] denotes safeties that are either big and big hitters, or too slow
to play FS well, or both. Sometimes you’ll find a slow guy at FS out of
necessity, but it rarely works well. Mike Brown is the only exception I
can think of, and (post-injuries) he may have slowed down too much to do
it anymore.
At LB, S/M/W are 4-3 Strong/Middle/Weak slots, O/I are 3-4
Inside/Outside positions.
On DL, E suggests a player suited to 3-4 DE.
* shows wildcard players whose slot/value is especially hard to
forecast, due to injury concerns, position uncertainty, character
issues, high measurable but minimal experience, etc.
By Round
R1 (pick 14) is definitely not shaping up well. Out of our prime needs
(QB, HB, OT, WR, G, FS), the right players aren’t there. Any G at 14 is
always a bad idea. There’s no S remotely worth 14 in this draft.
Mendenhall would be a good choice, but odds of him lasting aren’t
great. Ryan shouldn’t be there at 14 and Brohm really doesn’t warrant
it. There aren’t any elite WR prospects. There’s a slim chance Clady
could fall after a reputedly poor Wonderlic, but pretty unlikely.
Reaching for Williams looked like our best option for awhile, but it’s
starting to look like counting on him to be there isn’t even a safe
bet. You could hope that Albert can play T, but that’s a big gamble for
R1. If Mendenhall and Williams are gone (which is exactly what happened
to me in a recent participatory draft), we’ve got nothing to do here.
Trading down to around 25-30 would probably be the next hope.
R2
QB, WR, HB will certainly have plenty of options. But if we didn’t get
OT in R1, then Nicks (if he’s there) ought to be a requirement.
R3
Two picks here. A HB or QB could slip. 3rd is always a great round for
WR and G. Also a good spot for S in this draft.
R4
Good spot to be opportunistic for a surprise slider. Also good for G
(or another G, given the crap we have). WR could have some good left.
Sneak Preview?
Here’s how an online draft I did (with very knowledgeable participants)
went.
1 – OT Gosder Cherlius
As noted earlier, everyone we needed was gone, and I wasn’t available to
engineer a trade, so got stuck with a serious reach here.
2 – WR Devin Thomas
Nice steal here that I wouldn’t count on in real life.
3 – FS Quintin Demps
I don’t expect the Bears to be serious about S this year either, but I
like this a lot.
3 – G Jerramy Zuttah
Even having to move inside, probably an instant starter, with our line.
4 – G John Greco
Experienced college LT can play G/RT in the pros.
5 – QB Erik Ainge
I was planning to wait until R7 to use a throwaway pick (to be a #3 now,
and then a high pick in 2009 if and when Rex/Kyle fail), but this was
too much value.
6 – DB Michael Grant
Couldn’t pass on 2-yr starter, 3int/yr avg, major program, sub-4.4
speed, experience at corner and safety.
<still in progress>
The Picks
I was surprised that online Compensatory guru Adam predicted the Bears
for up to 4 7th rounders from some unheralded losses I didn’t think
would qualify (Boone, Todd Johnson, Worrell, Gage, Ian Scott). Official
announcement should come any day now.
Also moved up slightly in R3, in the Briggs deal mentioned earlier.
